Recently, Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom officially signed a strategic partnership agreement, and the two sides agreed to cooperate in energy, environmental protection, rare metal development and other fields. Kazakh President Zakayev highly appreciated this, saying that the signing of the agreement has laid the foundation for the expansion of the bilateral cooperation agenda and is of great significance to the development of bilateral relations. Cameron also agreed, saying that Britain regards Kazakhstan as an important partner in the Central Asian region and will attach great importance to bilateral cooperation.
It is worth mentioning that in March last year, Kazakhstan went against the norm and signed a memorandum of strategic partnership with the United Kingdom, the most important of which is to export rare earth resources to the United Kingdom, and in the choice of transportation routes, the two countries also deliberately avoided Russia. As early as the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan classified the export of rare earths as a secret, and would not disclose specific reserves to the outside world, let alone export them to the West. So at that time, this move was also regarded by the outside world as Kazakhstan's move to move closer to the West.
[Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom signed a strategic partnership agreement]
Now, the cooperation between the two countries has been upgraded on the basis of last year's cooperation. Although Cameron stressed that Kazakhstan will not face the pressure of choosing sides in the process of cooperation, he also made a point that it will not affect the cooperation between Kazakhstan and China and Russia. But this also shows that Britain has subconsciously regarded China and Russia as competitors. And since it is cooperation, it must be to exchange resources, and at that time, Kazakhstan is afraid that even if it does not want to choose sides, it will not be able to help itself.
And the reason why Kazakhstan wants to find a new backer is probably related to a news a few days ago.
Earlier this month, an audio recording of Gurulyov, a member of Russia's State Duma, was leaked. In this recording, Gurulev gave a speech to Kazakhstan, believing that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, he has repeatedly stood on the opposite side of Russia and deserves to be "punished". In addition to being active in Russian politics, Gurulev also has a military background, having served as the deputy commander of Russia's Southern Military District, although his ideas cannot determine Putin's decision-making, but it can reflect that the prejudice against Kazakhstan in Russia has become deeper and deeper.
After all, there is a 7,000-kilometer border between Russia and Kazakhstan, and there are still 4 million ethnic Russians living in the territory. And the introduction of foreign powers to balance the surrounding forces, Kazakhstan can have an extra bumper.
[Foreign media reported that Russia will target Kazakhstan]
However, for Kazakhstan, it cannot be said that it can sit back and relax by finding the UK as a backer, for three reasons:
First, Central Asia's abundant natural resources, especially oil and natural gas, and its strategic location on the Eurasian continent make the region a focal point for great power rivalry. The United States and Western countries have pursued a series of policies in Central Asia aimed at expanding their influence and trying to reduce the influence of Russia and China, which has risen in recent years, in the region. As far as Kazakhstan is concerned, if it does not grasp the balance well, it is very likely to become a victim of great power competition.
Second, most of the Central Asian countries are Islamic countries, and there are significant differences between them and the Western world in terms of culture and religion. Some Western policies and values (such as democracy and human rights) have caused a certain degree of resistance and estrangement in Central Asian countries when they are disseminated. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the West may interfere in its internal affairs through color revolutions and other means, causing instability and even turmoil, thus posing a threat to its security.
For example, before that, Russian intelligence was informed that the United States was inflamed nationalist sentiments, spreading lies, and manipulating public opinion through the Internet and social networks in Kazakhstan. In addition, Kazakhstan has also arrested an intelligence agent who attempted to assassinate Tokayev, but it is still inconclusive as to which country sent him. Moreover, there is also an insurmountable gap between the values of Kazakhstan and the West, because in the eyes of the West, Kazakhstan is not a "standard" democracy, which determines that it is difficult for the two sides to trust each other.
[Blinken meets with Central Asian countries]
Although it is still too early for Kazakhstan to sign a war partnership agreement with Britain this time, it is still too early to say that it will turn to the West, but what is reflected behind it is the weakening of Russia's influence in Central Asia. This situation is even more obvious in the economic field. For example, Kazakhstan has recently interacted frequently with China, and plans to send people to visit China, starting to find a new way out for itself, and at the same time deepening exchanges with Western countries. In the long run, Russia's position in Central Asia will inevitably be greatly reduced.
And for us, we have to plan ahead. Because of its location in the heart of the Eurasian continent, Kazakhstan is an important bridge between East and West. It is one of the key countries in China's Belt and Road Initiative and is crucial for China to expand its economic and political influence westward. If Kazakhstan leans too much towards the West, it may affect its economic cooperation with China, especially in the fields of energy and infrastructure construction, so we should not take it lightly.