As of the close of trading on December 26, 2023, the CSI Animal Husbandry Index (930707) closed down 0.38%. The trend of constituent stocks is differentiated, Chuanjinnuo (300505) 20% daily limit, Boen Group second board, Yisheng shares (002458), Lihua shares (300761), superstar agriculture and animal husbandry and other top gainers, Brother Technology (002562), Luo Niushan (000735), biological shares (600201), Yike Food, etc. fell more than 2%.
Animal Husbandry ETF (516670), a sharp tool for the layout of the "pig cycle", fell 0.14% to close at 0.701 yuan, with a full-day turnover of 26.61 million yuan, with a significant premium at the end of the day, with a closing premium rate of 0.17%.
Image source: Wind
[Industry observation: limited consumption, pig prices weakened again]
According to the data of the feed industry information network, on December 25, the weighted daily average price of large pigs slaughtered outside the three yuan, three yuan and miscellaneous commodities in China's mainstream market fell, and the weighted daily average price of live pigs slaughtered in the country was 14.58 yuan per kilogram, down 0.24% from the previous day.
Image source: Feed Industry Information Network
Market analysts believe that the winter solstice before the slaughter, the overall market supply is large, and the demand side in the post-holiday consumption fell shortly, limited consumption, pig prices rose difficult, slaughtering enterprises to reduce the price, pig prices continue to callback. However, the New Year's Day holiday is approaching, the terminal consumption or slightly increased, the breeding end of the price reluctance to sell sentiment, in the short term pig prices or frequent small shocks.
[Institution: The bottom of valuation and expectations, 2024 is expected to usher in the β of the sector]
Everbright Securities believes that the current industry is about to enter the deep water area of capacity reduction, because the gross profit of pigs is likely to fall back to the loss or below in the first half of 2024, superimposed piglet prices remain low, the elimination of energy is expected to enter the acceleration process in the first half of next year, this process may be similar to 2014, 2020 production capacity reduction, it is expected that this round of production capacity will be more thorough. At the valuation level, the current average market value of the sector has fallen below the lowest average market value in history. At the bottom of valuations and expectations, 2024 is expected to usher in a sector β.
Haitong Securities pointed out that in the next two quarters, the supply of live pigs is still too much, pig prices may fluctuate at the bottom, and at the same time, after nearly a year of losses on cash flow, the de-production capacity of fertile sows will be accelerated. With the deepening of production capacity, the pressure on the supply of live pigs in the second half of next year will ease, and pig prices may come out of the bottom range.
["Pig Cycle" Investment Weapon - Animal Husbandry ETF (516670)]
The CSI Animal Husbandry Index (930707.CSI) tracked by the Animal Husbandry ETF (516670) selects the stocks of listed companies involved in livestock and poultry feed, livestock and poultry drugs, and livestock and poultry breeding businesses from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares as sample stocks to reflect the overall performance of the stocks of listed companies related to animal husbandry. At present, there are 35 constituent stocks in the index, which fully cover the entire industry chain of animal husbandry and breeding, and focus on the layout of the core track of pig breeding. According to historical performance, the animal husbandry sector has shown obvious cyclicality for a long time according to the relationship between supply and demand, and there is a strong correlation between the overall and pig prices.
Data source: Wind, statistical period 2015.1.7-2023.12.13. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Indices operate for a relatively short period of time and do not reflect all stages of market development.
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The performance of the CSI Animal Husbandry Index in the past five years was -17.16% (2018), 75.7% (2019), 13.49% (2020), -5.93% (2021), and -13.21% (2022), respectively. The CSI Livestock Index is compiled and published by China Securities Index Company Limited. The Compiler of the Index will take all necessary measures to ensure the accuracy of the Index, but does not guarantee this and will not be liable to any person for any errors in the Index. Past performance of the Index is not indicative of future performance and does not constitute a guarantee of investment income or any investment advice. Indices operate for a relatively short period of time and do not reflect all stages of market development.
The content and data of this information source are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. AI technology strategy is provided for Youlian Cloud.
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