Yongyi and Ganglian can multiply data in December, and the low-rate "pig cycle" investment weapon animal husbandry ETF (516670) has been negative for 3 consecutive years, testing the support at the bottom of the box
On January 5, 2024, pork stocks fluctuated weakly in early trading, and the decline further expanded in the afternoon, with the CSI Animal Husbandry Index (930707) closing down 1.41%, and only Wen's shares rose slightly by 0.15%, and Chuan Jinnuo fell by more than 7%, and Jinxinong, Boen Group, Minhe Shares, and Tianma Technology were among the top decliners.
The low-rate "pig cycle" layout weapon - animal husbandry ETF (516670) closed down 1.27%, falling for 3 consecutive days, closing at 0.701 yuan, with a full-day turnover of 24.32 million yuan, and the daily K-line fell back to the bottom of the box.
Source: wind, as of 2024.1.5
It is understood that among the animal husbandry theme ETFs in the whole market, the livestock ETF (516670) has the lowest management fee rate of 0.2%, and the investment cost is lower.
[Industry observation: Yongyi, Ganglian and other tripartite platforms released in December]
The latest data from Yongyi Information: In December 2023, the inventory of fertile sows in the designated sample was -0.84% month-on-month, and the previous value was -1.57%;
The latest data of Shanghai Ganglian: the inventory of sows that can reproduce in December was -2.09% month-on-month, and the previous value was -1.92%
Source: Yongyi Consulting, as of 2023.12.31
According to data from relevant departments, the national breeding sow inventory in November 2023 decreased by 1.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. At the end of November, the national breeding sow herd was 41.58 million heads, which was 101.4% of the normal number of 41 million heads. Experts said that considering the obvious improvement in production efficiency and other factors, the current pig production capacity is still slightly higher than the reasonable level. According to the current reduction rate, pig production capacity will return to normal levels in the first quarter of 2024.
来源:mysteel,截至2023.11.30
[Institution: Production capacity is expected to continue to accelerate decentralization, continue to look at the bottom logic of the long sector]
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that looking back on the historical loss stage, retail investors due to flexibility, capital reserves and other reasons are given priority to the scale of the field exit, the current industry scale of the degree of substantial increase, the scale of the field will lead the industry capacity changes, and at this stage of the industry scale field funds shortage has appeared (some pig enterprises to increase piglet sales, In addition, the continuous interference of pig diseases in winter (the proportion of pigs slaughtered below 90kg is at a high level), and the pig price is not prosperous in the peak season.
Guosen Securities said that considering the abundant supply in the short term, pig prices may show a seasonal weak price increase trend in the short term. In the medium term, the breeding sentiment will continue to remain pessimistic, and the pressure on the correction of pig prices will be greater in the first half of 2024.
[Low-rate "pig cycle" investment weapon - livestock breeding ETF (516670)]
The CSI Animal Husbandry Index (930707.CSI) tracked by the Animal Husbandry ETF (516670) selects the stocks of listed companies involved in livestock and poultry feed, livestock and poultry drugs, and livestock and poultry breeding businesses from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares as sample stocks to reflect the overall performance of the stocks of listed companies related to animal husbandry. At present, there are 35 constituent stocks in the index, which fully cover the entire industry chain of animal husbandry and breeding, and focus on the layout of the core track of pig breeding. According to historical performance, the animal husbandry sector has shown obvious cyclicality for a long time according to the relationship between supply and demand, and there is a strong correlation between the overall and pig prices.
Data source: Wind, statistical period 2015.1.7-2023.12.20. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Indices operate for a relatively short period of time and do not reflect all stages of market development.
It is worth mentioning that among the animal husbandry theme ETFs in the whole market, the livestock ETF (516670) has the lowest management fee of only 0.2%, which is lower in investment costs, or can help investors capture the opportunities of the "pig cycle" more efficiently. OTC users can invest and subscribe through feeder funds (Class A 014414; Class C 014415).
Risk Warning: Funds are risky and should be cautious when investing. The above views, opinions and ideas are based on the current situation and are subject to change in the future. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund. Investors should carefully read the "Fund Contract", "Prospectus", "Product Key Facts Statement" and other fund legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics of fund products, and make independent decisions on fund investment and choose suitable fund products based on their own risk tolerance, investment period and investment objectives on the basis of understanding the product situation and listening to the suitability opinions of the sales agency. For the above views or information quoted from securities companies and other external institutions, we do not make any substantive guarantee or commitment to the authenticity, completeness and accuracy of such views and information, nor do they constitute investment recommendations.
The performance of the CSI Animal Husbandry Index in the past five years was 75.7% (2019), 13.49% (2020), -5.93% (2021), -13.21% (2022), and -15.30% (2023), respectively. The CSI Livestock Index is compiled and published by China Securities Index Company Limited. The Compiler of the Index will take all necessary measures to ensure the accuracy of the Index, but does not guarantee this and will not be liable to any person for any errors in the Index. Past performance of the Index is not indicative of future performance and does not constitute a guarantee of investment income or any investment advice. Indices operate for a relatively short period of time and do not reflect all stages of market development.