Straight News: The Japanese Government has basically decided to export the Patriot-3 surface-to-air interceptor missile to the United States in accordance with the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and the guidelines for the use of defense equipment revised today. How do you interpret this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Indeed, this is the first time that Japan has exported finished weapons for direct combat purposes for the purpose of lethality since the Abe administration formulated the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" in 2014, and it did so at the strong request of the Biden administration.
The United States, the "ancestor" of the Patriot missile, actually wants to urgently import the "Patriot" air defense missile to Japan, the "OEM" of the Patriot missile, because when the Russian-Ukrainian war has been fought for two years and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is in full swing, both the United States and its European allies have a serious shortage of weapons stockpiles, and it can even be said that they are almost running out of ammunition. At this time, there were not many countries left in the Western countries in a broad sense that still had "surplus food," and Japan, which was restricted by the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and was unable to export finished weapons on a large scale, was one of them. Under these circumstances, it is actually inevitable that the Biden administration will attack Japan's idea and ask it to further relax arms export restrictions to the United States.
It is worth noting that although Japan will still prohibit the export of weapons to "countries in the midst of war", including Ukraine and Israel, after Japan further lifts the ban on arms exports, the United States and its European allies can rest assured that they will boldly send their own weapons to Ukraine or Israel, and then use weapons imported from Japan to replenish their stocks. As a result, this restriction is effectively non-existent. Moreover, since the Kishida government does not directly sell weapons to Ukraine, Japan can also avoid offending Russia by doing so.
Straight News: According to reports, Japan is preparing to export surface-to-air interceptor missiles "Patriot 3" to the United States, which are actually produced in Japan on the basis of the authorization of American enterprises. How do you interpret this phenomenon?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, since the economic globalization reached its climax in the 90s of the last century, there has been a major adjustment in the economic structure of the United States, that is, the manufacturing industry has basically been hollowed out and transferred to Asian countries mainly China. The military industry must be built on the basis of the full development of the manufacturing industry, so the decline of the US manufacturing industry will inevitably affect the development of the military industry. This is the main reason why after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States will rarely have a shortage of weapons and ammunition stocks. It is in this context that President Biden recently made a public televised speech in which he reaffirmed his desire to turn the United States into the world's "arsenal of democracy." But despite the Biden administration's ambitions, rebuilding the military industry, especially manufacturing, will not happen overnight. Knowing this, we can understand why the Biden administration has recently signed agreements with allies in the "Indo-Pacific" region, including Australia for the production of medium- and long-range missiles and nuclear submarines, and with India for the production of drones and missiles. The purpose of this is to solve the problem of insufficient production capacity of the US military industry through joint production, including with countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India, which have certain technological research and development capabilities and manufacturing capabilities.
In addition to solving the problem of insufficient production capacity, the Biden administration has another purpose in doing so, that is, to strengthen the defense capabilities of these allies by working with allies to produce weapons, so that they can better act as pawns of the United States. For example, cooperating with Japan in the production of the "Patriot-3" will allow Japan to better act as a defense shield for the United States in order to strengthen its function as the "first island chain"; cooperating with Australia in the production of medium- and long-range missiles and nuclear-powered submarines will strengthen the United States' strike capability in the "second island chain"; and cooperating with India in the production of weapons will allow India to help the United States watch the Indian Ocean and control the exit from the Strait of Malacca.
Straight News: What is the purpose behind Japan's revising of the "Three Principles on the Transfer of Defense Equipment" at the request of the United States?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that Japan and the United States are willing to hit it off on this matter. Originally, Japan itself wanted to revise the "Three Principles on the Transfer of Defense Equipment" again, and it would still face pressure from the domestic opposition forces, but this time it was at the request of the United States to understand the urgent needs of the United States, and the domestic opposition forces naturally had nothing to say.
In my opinion, the main purpose of Japan's revision of the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" this time is to achieve these three goals.
The first is to seize the opportunity to become a major arms manufacturer and exporter in the world under the current situation in which the arms and ammunition stocks of Western countries are in an all-round emergency and the global arms market is extremely short of stocks. I believe that the huge gap between demand and supply in the global arms market in the short and medium term will undoubtedly provide a golden opportunity for Japan's ambitious military industrial plan, so they should take the opportunity to revise the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" again to clear the institutional obstacles for seizing the global arms market in the future.
Second, after revising the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" again, Japan can export finished weapons to other countries, and then Japan can export weapons to the Philippines, Vietnam, India, and other countries that have territorial sovereignty disputes with China, and win over these countries through arms exports, further strengthening the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" aimed at containing China.
Third, Japan can deepen its relations with NATO countries by exporting weapons to NATO countries and take the lead in realizing military equipment integration when it is temporarily unable to join NATO.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Chen Miaosong, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News