Straight News: People's Party candidate Ke Wenzhe claimed in an interview with the media that it would not matter even if Taiwan's so-called "diplomatic relations" returned to zero. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: In fact, the fundamental reason why the white forces led by Ke Wenzhe can barely support themselves in the blue-green situation is that the young people on the island have become his hardcore basic plate. And from Ke Wenzhe's daring to say that "even if Taiwan's so-called 'diplomatic relations' go to zero, it doesn't matter", which seems to be a big rebellion in the eyes of ordinary people, we can see that it is not for nothing that young people in Taiwan like Ke Wenzhe. Ke Wenzhe's charm lies in the fact that he is not only anti-system, anti-traditional and anti-politically correct, but also like the child who has the courage to say that "the emperor actually has no clothes", he often dares to speak openly.
In my opinion, the main reason why Ko Wenzhe's remark is a big truth lies in the fact that the so-called "diplomatic relations" that the Taiwan side has spent a lot of effort to maintain over the past 40 or 50 years have been almost useless and have not played any real role in expanding the so-called international space, especially in the so-called "return to the United Nations" that some "Taiwan independence" elements dream of, and in maintaining so-called security. The reason why the regime on the island has been able to hold on to the present is mainly because of the support of the United States, Japan, and other foreign forces, and it doesn't matter whether there are so-called "diplomatic relations" or not. Without these so-called "diplomatic relations," Taiwan can still live, and it will live more easily, but without the foreign forces led by the United States and Japan, Taiwan will immediately be unable to hold on.
Of course, having said that, although Ke Wenzhe has exposed a naked political reality, in the current political environment, trying his best to maintain the so-called "diplomatic relations" is not only politically correct in the political arena on the island, but I believe that no politician dares to abandon these so-called "diplomatic relations." The reasons behind this are: First, these so-called "diplomatic relations" are still an important symbol for the regime on the island to show and prove to the outside world that "I am still alive," and second, the leaders of the Taiwan region still need to satisfy their psychological needs by visiting these so-called "diplomatic relations." Therefore, although these so-called "diplomatic relations" do not play a big role in substance, no matter which party comes to power, they will keep these so-called "diplomatic relations" like pets.
Lian Zhan and Hou Youyi (Source: Hou Youyi Social Media)
Straight News: What do you think about the open letter issued by former Kuomintang Chairman Lien Chan calling on voters on the island to support "Hou Kangpei"?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, a few months ago, the biggest fear was that in this election, there would be another big split between the pan-blue forces. Then, with Kim Pucong taking action for "Hou Kangpei" and Ma Ying-jeou openly standing for "Hou Kangpei," it means that Zhenglan in the Kuomintang has returned to the team; with Han Kuo-yu being listed as the first public opinion representative of the Kuomintang in the non-regional area, Zhao Shaokang has agreed to serve as Hou Youyi's deputy, which means that the "fighting blue" in the Kuomintang has not only regrouped but also entered a state of fighting; and Wang Jinping has re-emerged from the mountain to canvass votes for "Hou Kangpei" in southern Taiwan, which means that the "local blue" has merged with Hou Youyi. Therefore, this time, Mr. Lien Chan, who is already old, personally issued an open letter calling on voters to vote for "Hou Kangpei", which not only shows that the deep blue forces in the Kuomintang have settled their past suspicions with Hou Youyi, but also means that under the political goal of uniting to win the 2024 election, the deep blue and the "local blue" in the Kuomintang have achieved a great reconciliation to a certain extent. In other words, the election campaign has been carried out so far, and the Kuomintang has finally staged a gratifying scene of "family photos". This also further enhances the chances of "Hou Kangpei" winning the election.
However, if the Kuomintang wants to finally defeat the DPP, it should do a good job in the next two points: First, at the last critical moment, let Guo Taiming give up his previous suspicions and stand on the platform of "Hou Kangpei", which will help some of the wandering middle voters, especially the "economic voters", to turn to the KMT; and second, to do a good job of communication and coordination with Ke Wenzhe, and play the "abandonment card" at the last moment, so that the young people under Ke Wenzhe can vote for the KMT.
Straight News: 2023 is about to pass and 2024 is coming, what kind of summary do you have of the situation on the island and the Taiwan Strait in the past year, and what are your prospects for the situation on the island and the Taiwan Strait in the coming year?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that after Tsai Ing-wen came to power, especially in the past year, although a lot of things have happened in the political situation on the island and between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and the Taiwan Strait, there has been no major change in the overall political and security pattern, let alone a fundamental change. Such a situation has enabled the cross-strait and the situation in the Taiwan Strait to remain relatively stable in the past in the face of wind and rain, and such a situation will also allow cross-strait relations and the situation in the Taiwan Strait to continue to remain basically stable in 2024 and in the next few years.
In my opinion, it is conducive to the situation between the two sides of the strait and the Taiwan Strait in the past. There are several factors for maintaining basic stability at present and in the future: First, although there has been a fundamental change in the political ecology of the island where green is greater than blue, as many as 70 percent of voters still agree that the two sides of the strait should maintain the status quo; second, after the great ups and downs of former US President Trump's administration, the Biden administration's policy toward Taiwan and Chinese mainland has basically stabilized, that is, in Sino-US relations, while maintaining Sino-US competition, avoiding Sino-US conflicts and wars, on the Taiwan issue, it has adopted a two-handed strategy of being soft and the Taiwan issue, and the hard hand is to continue to increase the deployment of military forces around the Taiwan StraitThe soft hand is to openly promise to Chinese mainland that it will not support "Taiwan independence"; the third is because the mainland has always maintained its strategic determination on the Taiwan issue, that is, it will firmly take peaceful reunification as the goal and handle cross-strait relations with China as the mainstay, and will not dance with the steps of the "Taiwan independence" elements. In this case, in the next 2024 election, whoever comes to power, whether the KMT or the DPP, will be firmly constrained by these three basic factors and cannot achieve a breakthrough. That is to say, the Kuomintang has come to power, and although cross-strait relations may return to the track of peaceful development, it is still impossible to immediately realize cross-strait reunification, and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been re-elected to power, and although cross-strait relations will continue to maintain a tense situation, Lai Qingde absolutely does not dare to take substantive steps on the road of "Taiwan independence."
All in all, in 2024 and in the next few years, although cross-strait relations and the situation in the Taiwan Strait may continue to experience strong winds and waves, the basic pattern of maintaining the status quo will not change. This is my basic view on the past, present, and future cross-strait relations and the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".