Attacked vessel "MV ChemPluto" Source: Indian media ANI
Straight News: Mr. Liu, what do you think of the Pentagon's allegation that a drone taking off from Iran attacked an oil tanker linked to Israel sailing in the Arabian Sea?
Liu Heping: I think this is a sharp escalation of the US accusations against Iran since the outbreak of the armed conflict between Israel and Hamas, and it is also an important sign that the situation may change qualitatively.
We know that after the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States initially accused Iran of being a supporter behind Hamas, Allah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the militia groups in Iraq; it later accused Iran of planning and participating in the attacks of Allah in Lebanon against Israel, as well as aiding and participating in the attacks of the Houthis in Yemen on merchant ships in the Red Sea, including the provision of missiles, drones and tactical intelligence. Although the United States expressed its dissatisfaction with these acts, it ultimately chose to be patient. However, this time is completely different. The United States does not accuse Iran of supporting, plotting and helping Hamas, Allah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen behind the scenes, but of directly attacking merchant ships as a sovereign country. As for the severity of the attack on civilian merchant ships, I am sure everyone knows the severity of the attack, and the United States, Israel and their allies can even directly carry out military strikes against Iran in the name of counterterrorism.
I think it was because of the nature of this accusation and its consequences that Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian immediately came forward to deny it, emphasizing that the Houthis made their decision based on their own position, and that Iran never ordered the group to do anything, nor did it order the other side to stop acting. The implication is that "it was not Iran that did it, but the Houthis, and Iran cannot stop the Houthis." Contrary to Iran's foreign minister's eagerness to absolve himself of responsibility, however, a commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a strong warning, suggesting that Iran could shut down the Mediterranean, the Strait of Gibraltar and other waterways if the United States and its allies continue to commit crimes in Gaza. I don't know if that's if, as in the past, the moderates in Iran's domestic political circles are at odds with the hardliners in the military. But if the Iranian military does do so, the war will inevitably escalate and expand.
Cargo ships are waiting in the Red Sea near the opening of the Suez Canal. Source: The New York Times
Straight News: What impact will the Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea and the Pentagon's accusation that Iran attacked merchant ships with drones have on the situation between Palestine and Israel and the Middle East?
Liu Heping: Actually, on the surface, the Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea and the Iranian attacks on merchant ships alleged by the US seem to be able to retaliate against the US and Israel, and to take a bad breath for Hamas, which has been beaten by the Israeli army in recent times. However, with all due respect, this approach is in fact a short-sighted act of being brave and unscrupulous, seeking only momentary tactical pleasure without regard for the serious consequences that it will bring.
As you know, in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, there are actually two fronts alternating between them: a military front, which is fought by the Israeli army and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, while Allah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen are coordinating and harassing on the periphery; Although the Israeli army has a huge advantage on the military front, on the diplomatic and moral front, Israel and its only hardcore supporter, the United States, have fallen into a situation of being alone and betraying their relatives, and even Japan, the hardcore allies of the United States, have turned away from Germany on this front, and the two countries have repeatedly abstained from voting at special sessions of the United Nations. However, the Houthi attack on merchant ships in the Red Sea has given Israel, especially the United States, an opportunity to turn the tide in diplomatic and moral warfare. We have seen that because this matter involves the safety of the lifeline of international shipping, international public opinion is on the side of the United States and Israel. Therefore, the United States immediately announced that it had formed an "escort alliance" with about 20 countries, including Britain, France, and Italy, to protect the free and safe passage of merchant ships through the Red Sea. And the U.S. public accusation that Iran has also carried out direct attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea will undoubtedly allow the U.S. and its Western allies to further occupy the moral high ground.
Second, we know that the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, which Iran has threatened to blockade, are not only a global shipping lifeline, but also a shipping lifeline for the vast number of Islamic countries. The conflict has given scattered Islamic states signs of reuniting against Israel, but the Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea and Iran's threatened blockade of the Mediterranean Sea will undoubtedly divide the Islamic world again, and even cause a significant number of countries to side with the United States. On top of that, with nearly 40 percent of Saudi Arabia's cargo passing through the Red Sea, and a long-standing feud between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels, the move could undermine the much-won rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
For these reasons, I believe that the Houthi attacks on Red Sea merchant ships and Iran's threats to blockade the Mediterranean are more than worth the political and moral calculations.
Straight News: Do you think that the US accusation that Iranian drones attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea will lead to a direct war between the US and Iran?
Liu Heping: I believe that this accusation by the Pentagon provides an excellent excuse for the US-led "escort coalition" to retaliate militarily against Iran. However, with the war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict already exhausting the United States, and Biden already suffering from public opinion for his staunch support for Israel, the United States and its allies should not immediately retaliate against Iran. Of course, the premise is that the Iranian side can also exercise restraint and no longer allow the United States to get the hang of it.
However, although the United States will not directly go to war with Iran, it is possible that it will send a stern warning to Iran by raiding the Houthis in Yemen. At the same time, while the United States will not do it directly against Iran, it does not mean that Israel will not do it either. I have always believed that since Israel has determined that Hamas, Allah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen are behind the attacks on itself, Israel will certainly not let Iran go after the task of eradicating Hamas is basically completed, and its long-range strikes may gradually become normalized.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".