Straight news: The United States and Australia today (6th) held the annual "2+2" dialogue between foreign and defense ministers to further explore strengthening the US military base in northern Australia to further upgrade Australia's role from "southern anchor" to "southern spear". What do you think about this?
Liu Heping, Special Commentator: I think this move means that United States is turning Australia into a medium- and long-range military strike base for the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific region. This is also the reason why United States and United Kingdom decided earlier to assist Australia in the production of nuclear-powered submarines and to help Australia in the production of missile systems, with the aim of giving Australia a military deterrent capability that radiates the entire "Indo-Pacific" region.
Why, then, among so many allies, did United States pick Australia alone to take on this heavy responsibility?
First of all, from a political and diplomatic point of view, Australia is United States most trusted ally in the "Indo-Pacific" region, and the level of mutual trust between the United States and Australia is even far greater than that of the United States, Japan and the United States and South Korea. The reason behind this is that Australia not only shares the same ideology and values as United States and is a staunch supporter of United States' diplomatic strategy and line, but more importantly, Australia, like United States, is a member of the Anglo-Saxon family of the same language and blood, and is a member of the "Five Eyes" alliance.
Secondly, from a geographical perspective, Australia is also the most suitable country to assume this function. Because the United States military bases in Japan and Korea are too close to China and Russia, they lack strategic depth, and in the event of a war, it will be difficult to protect themselves. United States' other two allies in Southeast Asia, the Philippines and Singapore, lack the ability and willingness to do so. At the same time, the United States military base of Guam is too small to be vulnerable to saturation attacks, and Hawaii and the United States mainland are too far away from China and Russia to be within reach. Therefore, the United States chooses to choose, only Australia's geographical location is the most suitable, it is neither too far nor too close to China and Russia, which can not only exceed the range of most of the offensive weapons of China and Russia, but also "reach" China and Russia of the offensive weapons deployed in Australia.
In addition, the United States military bases in northern Australia, including the port of Darwin, can not only greatly extend the "second island chain," but also enable the US military to encircle the three major military bases of China and Russia in the future, that is, between the US military base in Okinawa, the base in Darwin, and the base in Guam, forming an iron triangle of "clamping China and Russia."
The Tyndall base is home to an important facility for the Australia Air Force
Straight News: We have noticed that almost all comments believe that the purpose of the US military strengthening military presence in northern Australia is mainly aimed at the situation in the South China Sea, that is, to "rush" to the South China Sea in time for wartime. What do you think about this?
Liu Heping, Special Commentator: I have a different view on this. I have always believed that the United States is a "drunkard who does not want to drink," and its ultimate goal is by no means the South China Sea but the Taiwan Strait, and even hyping up the South China Sea issue is only a means of the United States, and its purpose is to strengthen the US-Philippine military alliance and win over the Philippines to intervene in the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
We can also see from the joint statement of the United States and Australia after the "2+2" dialogue meeting that "it is important to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait" for four consecutive years, that the United States' move is aimed at the situation in the Taiwan Strait and is preparing for possible future conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.
Moreover, I believe that this move by the US side is actually part of the military strategic deployment of "encirclement and counter-encirclement" between China and the United States around the Taiwan Strait.
As I said earlier, in recent years, the PLA has repeatedly practiced sailing south around Taiwan after passing through the Miyako Strait of Japan, and sailing north around Taiwan through the Bass Strait, all with the aim of building a dynamic wartime encirclement of Taiwan. In response to this move of the PLA, the United States has taken-for-tat attempts to build and strengthen a permanent encirclement in the east, west, south, and north directions of the encirclement outside Taiwan. Among them, the United States has strengthened its presence in Japan military bases to facilitate the blockade of the Miyako Strait, the PLA's access to the Pacific Ocean from the north of the Taiwan Strait in wartime; United States significantly increased its military bases in the Philippines in order to block the Bass Strait, the PLA's access to the Pacific Ocean from the South China Sea, in wartime; The strengthening of the military presence in Singapore and the strengthening of U.S.-India military cooperation are aimed at blocking and encircling the Strait of Malacca.
The further establishment of Australia as a medium- and long-range military strike base for the US military in the "Indo-Pacific" region is aimed at blocking and controlling the western Pacific from another direction and preventing the PLA from attacking Taiwan from the open sea east of Taiwan. And for the United States, it is very important to build Australia into a medium- and long-range military strike base for the US military in the "Indo-Pacific" region, which will determine whether the US military can smoothly rush to Taiwan and replenish Taiwan in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait.
According to Reuters, in order to strengthen the ability to "confront China", the United States Navy recently issued a tender for building infrastructure in the "Indo-Pacific" region, and Australia's overseas territory in the India Ocean Cocos Islands became one of the possible options. What do you think about this?
Special commentator Liu Heping: I think the reason why the US military is eyeing Australia's overseas territory in the India Ocean Cocos Islands and preparing to build it into an important military base in the "Indo-Pacific" region is actually to make up for India's serious "chain drop" problem in the "Indo-Pacific strategy".
In fact, although India practices a Western-style political system, as an independent power, India is not very interested in the so-called "new Cold War" provoked by United States in the region, and is unwilling to participate in the "bloc confrontation" United States against China. However, even in this case, United States still did not give up on India, and over the years, through soft grinding and hard bubbles, and even did not hesitate to "stick India's cold ass with a hot face", it finally pulled India into the "Indo-Pacific strategy" and built a four-party security dialogue mechanism between the United States, Japan, India and Australia.
United States do this, in addition to the fact that there is a territorial sovereignty dispute between China and India and that India also wants to hold United States thighs to suppress China, there is also a more important reason that India has a unique strategic position. If India completely falls to the side of United States, it will not only help United States hold the India Ocean, but also help United States block the Strait of Malacca from the periphery. The US side believes that this will be tantamount to choking China's lifeline, and from now on, China's import and export of goods, especially energy imports, through the India Ocean and the Strait of Malacca, will depend on the faces of United States and India.
However, what United States did not expect was that India, who had joined the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue mechanism between the United States, Japan, India and Australia in recent years, not only did not pay much attention to participating in "collective organizational life", but even had a tendency to deviate from Germany from United States. One of the typical manifestations is that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, India not only did not follow the sanctions Russia the West led by United States, but even made a lot of war money in the Russian-Indian energy trade. What especially makes the Biden administration feel "tolerable, intolerable" is that not long ago, India Prime Minister Modi visited Russia and met with Putin.
I believe that it is in this context that United States has decided to retreat and set its sights on Australia's overseas territory in the India Ocean, the Cocos Islands, to become an important military base in the "Indo-Pacific" region, replacing the role that should have been played by India. I even believe that once the purpose of United States is achieved, the dependence of United States on India can be greatly reduced, and it will be a high probability that India fade out of the "Indo-Pacific strategy".