Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar (left) meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) during a visit to Russia on December 27, 2023. Source: Reuters
Straight News: Mr. Liu, what are your observations on Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Russia?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, to evaluate the current Russia-India relations, especially after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, we must zoom in on our vision. I think that after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, by observing their attitudes towards Ukraine and Russia, we can roughly divide the countries of the world into three main categories - the first group is the countries that follow the United States and firmly support Ukraine and even provide weapons to Ukraine. The common denominator of such countries is that they are allies or quasi-allies of the United States, and share the same ideology, values, and political system as the United States. There are about 50 such countries around the world. The second group is countries that firmly support Russia and even supply weapons and ammunition to Russia, which are several countries represented by Iran and North Korea. The common characteristic of these countries is that they are all quite anti-American because they have been blocked and sanctioned by the United States for a long time. The third group is countries that take a neutral stance and refuse to choose sides between Russia and Ukraine, or even maintain relatively friendly relations with both sides. They are represented by countries such as Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, etc. What they have in common is that they pursue all diplomacy that is oriented towards their own national gains, strives to maximize their own national benefits, and de-ideologizes. The benefit of the first of these three categories is that they can integrate into the political, security, and economic system dominated by the United States. The second group of countries can benefit from Russia in terms of military technology and cheap agricultural products. The best mixed are the third group of countries, which are both co-opted by Russia and bought by the United States, and can be said to be like a fish in water in both sides in obtaining national interests. India is a prime example of this. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has used the Russia-Ukraine war as a lever to power Russia and the West right and left.
Straight News: What do you think of the results of Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Russia?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Obviously, in order to win over India, Russia has poured out its heart and lungs this time, and has put in front of India all the good things that India wants and what Russia can come up with. Politically and diplomatically, it has not only taken the initiative to invite Modi to visit Russia, but has also explicitly promised that Russia will support India's "normalization"; economically, it is preparing to launch a north-south international transport corridor between India and Russia; and militarily, it has promised to cooperate with India in the production of Russian-made weapons in India. And I don't know if you have noticed that Russia's benefits to India this time are based on the gift package that Biden gave to India during his visit to India not long ago, and the signs of parting ways between Russia and the United States are very strong. It is precisely because the United States invited India to join the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and invited India to attend the G7 and NATO summits that Russia has pledged to support India's "entry into normalcy"; it is precisely because the United States and India have signed a five-year military-industrial cooperation plan to jointly produce offensive weapons, including missiles, that Russia has concocted the same method; and it is precisely because the United States has taken the lead in building the "Indo-European Economic Corridor" with India. Russia has only proposed to build a north-south international transport corridor between India and Russia. In other words, what the United States promised to India, I, Russia, can also give, and we will give more. It can be expected that in order to compete with Russia in winning over India, the United States will definitely offer India a higher price in the future, and India will become a sweet spot for the United States and Russia to compete for. In the past, when India applied for "normalization," Russia often nodded in agreement with the United States in vetoing it, and the United States nodded in agreement with Russia's veto, and this time neither the United States nor Russia, nor even Britain and France, should dare not veto. Economically, India can not only continue to buy cheap Russian oil while joining the supply chain dominated by the United States, but more importantly, India can also promote the internationalization of the rupee by settling oil trade with Russia by using the rupee to settle oil trade; in the past, India basically had only Russia to choose between the purchase and production of military equipment, but now it can take it all between the United States and Russia.
Straight news: Russia's "Tsargrad.tv" news network said that although the United States and its allies want India to alienate Russia. However, in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian-Indian relations have not been cold, but have become more stable. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I have reservations about such a judgment. Before the Russia-Ukraine war, India pursued a diplomatic strategy of balancing diplomacy between the United States and Russia, and its focus was indeed biased towards Russia, and after the Russian-Ukrainian war, although India was still playing a balanced diplomatic strategy between the United States and Russia, its center of gravity has been biased towards the West led by the United States. Because India at that time was inclined to believe that Ukraine, supported by the United States and Europe, could eventually defeat Russia. A typical manifestation of this is that not only is the relationship between the United States and India hot, but India has also joined the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" mechanism of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, integrated into the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" led by the United States, and also attended the NATO summit and the G7 summit. On the contrary, in order to politely refuse Russian President Vladimir Putin's attendance at the SCO summit in India, India has also changed the summit that should have been held offline to online, and even the G20 summit in India, Putin has not been able to attend. Therefore, I think that for the subtle changes in Russian-Indian relations after the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia is "self-aware of drinking cold water in the winter". In my opinion, the reason behind this is that the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war has put Russia in an unprecedented diplomatic predicament, and not only does it have no hope of thawing its relations with the Western bloc in the short and medium term, but also because of the existence of the so-called wanted warrant of the International Criminal Court, it is also facing obstacles with the 123 member states of the International Criminal Court in carrying out head-of-state diplomacy. In this case, doing its best to establish good relations with India has actually become a helpless choice for Russia, which is also one of Russia's means of diplomatic breakthrough, not to mention that India is also a member of the BRICS and the SCO. In addition, I would also like to remind Russia that almost two years after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, a very important reason why Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar belatedly visited Russia is that Russia is currently showing signs of "holding on" on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. If one day Russia is unable to withstand the battlefield, India's position and attitude will change.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Wang Zhijing, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News