Tinian North Airport in 2008. Source: CNN
Straight news: U.S. Pacific Air Force Commander Wilsbach said the U.S. military intends to restart an old World War II airfield on the Pacific island of Tinian. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, Wilsbach has made it clear that the purpose of the US military's move is to strengthen military deterrence against China and deal with any potential military conflict. In this case, we must understand what the most anxious and fearful things are for the US military in the setting of this conflict scenario. In my opinion, there is no doubt that it is the PLA's medium- and long-range strike capabilities, especially the "Dongfeng" series of missiles. In recent years, the long-range precision strike capabilities of "Dongfeng" ballistic missiles and cruise missiles have become stronger and stronger, as well as hypersonic missiles. On the contrary, because it was once constrained by the "Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty" signed with Russia, the United States has fallen behind in the production and deployment of medium- and long-range missiles. Under this setting, how to avoid the saturation and intensive attack of China's medium- and long-range missiles has become the most troublesome thing for the US military, and it has also become a new topic that the US military has to study and deal with. The reopening of an old World War II airport on the Pacific island of Tinian is actually a product of this context.
According to the US side, the purpose of restarting the Tinian airport is to implement the so-called "agile combat deployment". And the so-called "agile combat deployment", in the vernacular, is not to put all your eggs in the same basket. This is because the US military is on the long "second island chain," and there is only one military base that really has its own island. With the further enhancement of the PLA's medium- and long-range missile strike capability, the US military's Andersen Air Force Base on Guam will also find it difficult to protect itself. It was in this context that they decided to reactivate the Tinian airport, which had been abandoned after World War II and was about 160 kilometers from Guam. Once the Tinian airfield is reopened, it will not only be able to form a horn with the Andersen Air Force Base on Guam Island to achieve the purpose of defending each other, but will also use the Tinian Airport to undertake the planes that have been evacuated and transferred from the Andersen Air Force Base, and in this way to preserve the combat strength of the US military aircraft.
Guam Military Base
Straight News: We have noticed that the US military has launched a comprehensive plan to renovate the military base in Guam, and now it has decided to restart the Tinian airport.
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, you can see that since Biden took office, the first thing the United States has focused on is to further strengthen its deployment on the "first island chain". To this end, the Biden administration has adopted a three-pronged strategy: First, it has intensified the deployment of US military bases in South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines; second, it has further strengthened the defense and attack capabilities of these countries by rebuilding the US-Japan, US-ROK, and US-Philippine military alliances; and third, it has strengthened the combat capability of the Taiwan military by focusing on increasing arms sales to Taiwan.
After consolidating and strengthening the deployment of the "first island chain", the Biden administration has begun to focus on consolidating and strengthening the "second island chain", not only launching a comprehensive renovation plan for the military base in Guam, but also restarting the Tinian airport, which is also located on the "second island chain". In my opinion, the signal behind this is that the United States does not have much confidence in the "first island chain" composed of South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, etc., or that the US military has lost its sense of security in the "first island chain". It is precisely under these circumstances that the US military has set about the comprehensive consolidation of the "second island chain."
Moreover, it can be seen from the major moves taken by the US military in the "second island chain" that the US military will regard the "second island chain" as the main battlefield for "attacking and retreating" in the future. The U.S. military has bet its main treasures on the "second island chain".
Straight News: Do you think that the US military will finally be able to achieve its strategic goals by fully launching the renovation plan of the Guam military base and restarting the Tinian airport?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think it's very difficult. While the United States is constantly strengthening its shield by strengthening its three "island chains," China's medium- and long-range missile offensive capability, or "spear capability," is actually constantly improving. As early as the 90s of the last century, when China's medium- and long-range strike capability was not strong, the United States once believed that the "first island chain" it had built was impregnable and indestructible. However, when China's medium- and long-range strike capabilities have developed by leaps and bounds, the United States has no confidence in the "first island chain."
Now, even the analysis report released by the US Defense Intelligence Agency itself admits that "the newly developed hypersonic missile of the PLA can already hit all the bases of the US military in the Pacific Ocean." Under such circumstances, even if the US military restarts the Tinian airfield on the "second island chain" and disperses part of its air force's combat strength, will it be able to guarantee its own 100 percent security? Therefore, this move by the US military will not only not help resolve its own security dilemma, but will also easily trigger a more intense arms race in the region and escalate the military confrontation situation in the region.
So, in the final analysis, it is better to invest in war than in peace. The Pacific Ocean is large enough to accommodate two major powers, China and the United States. If the United States wants to achieve long-term peace and stability for itself and the region, it should not focus on how to win the war, but on how to achieve coexistence and common prosperity between China and the United States, and truly implement President Biden's repeated promise that "there is no intention of conflict with China."
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".