Straight News: What do you think about the two large-scale terrorist attacks in Iran in a row?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that the brutal terrorist attack on Iran because of the memory of Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who was "targeted and killed" by the US military a few years ago, can be described as "an old hatred that has not been extinguished, and a new hatred has been added". In response, Iran has vowed to retaliate.
The supreme commander of the radical Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) "Quds Force" has pointed the finger at Israel as "the work of the Zionist regime," but has not produced any credible evidence. Israel, which adheres to the creed that "a strong life does not need to be explained", neither affirms nor denies this, and is even too lazy to explain it.
This act of placing bombs in garbage cans and targeting innocent civilians is more akin to the practice of some traditional terrorist organizations than to the usual Israeli practice.
In my personal opinion, in addition to the existence of radical opposition forces in the country, Sunni terrorist groups active in the Middle East often target Iran as a terrorist target. Therefore, the New York Times quoted an analysis that the "Islamic State" extremist group and the Sunni terrorist group in Iran may be behind it. If that's the case, then it's a bit embarrassing. The embarrassment lies not only in the fact that the terrorist attacks that have occurred repeatedly in Israel and Western countries in the past have actually happened to Iran, which is anti-Israel and Western, but also that in this Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Shiite Iran is a staunch supporter of Sunni Hamas.
Straight News: We have seen that after the large-scale terrorist attacks in Iran, the international community has strongly condemned them. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I noticed that so far, only the United States and Israel have not condemned this. Not only that, but the Biden administration also stood up for Israel in the first place. A spokesman for the US State Department said that "there is no reason to believe that Israel will be involved".
In addition, not only did UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the Arab League and the European Union condemn the terrorist attack in the strongest terms, expressing solidarity with the Iranian people, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has also condemned the killing of civilians. What surprised me even more was that Hamas, Allah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen were the first to issue strong statements of condemnation. Hamas said that "the actions against Iranian civilians are cowardly attacks". Allah in Lebanon expresses its condolences to those who lost their lives in the bombing. "This is a clear crime," the Houthis said.
I believe that such a phenomenon proves once again that any act of terror against civilians is not only anti-humanity and anti-civilization, but also a despicable act of cowardice, which should be condemned by all States and all people on an equal footing. At the same time, I believe that in order to eradicate such terrorist attacks, it is necessary for all parties concerned to learn from the experience and lessons of traditional Chinese culture. There are two sayings in traditional Chinese culture, one is "When is the time to repay wrongs", and the other is "Do not do to others what you do not want to be done to yourself", which is worth savoring by all parties concerned.
IDF in the Gaza Strip
Straight News: Will the two terrorist attacks in Iran drag the already tense Middle East situation into a full-scale war?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: My judgment on this is that the conflicts between specific countries in the Middle East and between specific countries and local armed forces will certainly further intensify, and second, although the situation will further intensify, it will not drag the entire Middle East into the flames of war in an all-round way. The reason behind this lies in the fact that, on the one hand, it is only Iran and other very few countries and some armed organizations that dare to stand up against Israel and the United States, and the Arab countries that have been repeatedly defeated in the previous five Middle East wars are not only standing idly by, but also quite a number of Arab countries have maintained quite good relations with the United States, and even US troops are stationed.
On the other hand, when the Hamas organization was massively purged by Israel, not only did Iran carefully maintain restraint and try its best to avoid direct military conflict with Israel, especially the United States, but also the armed forces such as Allah Party in Lebanon, supported by Iran, did not have the will and ability to assume a posture of all-out war with the United States and Israel.
The reason why I say that conflicts between specific countries in the Middle East, and between specific countries and local armed forces, will further intensify in the absence of a major war is that because Israel has determined that Iran and its support for Allah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen support Hamas, according to the national character of the Jews "tooth for tooth and eye for eye" and the "determinism of strength" they believe Then, after cleaning up Hamas, they will definitely target Allah in Lebanon and Iran behind it.
The day before yesterday, Israel used a drone to attack the Hamas office in Beirut, the Lebanese capital, killing the second person in Hamas, Aluri, which actually marked that Israel had completed its main war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and began to turn its target to Allah in Lebanon. However, the conflict between Israel and Allah in Lebanon and Iran will not lead to a real war, but will be carried out in a way that will "play behind the back", that is, unrestricted warfare, and it will last quite long.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".