Straight News: Mr. Liu, how do you interpret the unprecedentedly tough statement made by North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un against South Korea at the 9th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I believe that we should analyze and judge Kim Jong-un's ultra-tough statement in a realistic and objective manner.
First of all, we know that although more than 70 years have passed since the war between the two Koreas, since the two Koreas have only signed a temporary armistice agreement and no peace agreement, Kim Jong-un is not wrong to characterize the inter-Korean relations as "hostile relations", but to characterize them as "relations between the two countries at war", which is indeed an escalation of the judgment of the situation. Second, Kim Jong Un said that the relations between the two Koreas are no longer the same ethnic group, which I think is obviously an "angry remark" because no one can change the fact that the two Koreas are of the same culture, the same race and the same blood. Therefore, we can characterize Kim Jong-un's statement as a statement of political stance.
So why did Kim Jong-un make such a tough stance against South Korea at this critical juncture? I think there are three reasons behind this.
The first is that it has been affected by the external environment. This external environment is mainly due to the fact that in recent years, the United States has unilaterally restarted the ideological "new Cold War" and launched the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" aimed at containing China and Russia, as well as reshaping the relations between the United States, Japan and South Korea in order to win the "New Cold War" and build the "Indo-Pacific Strategy", which has made the United States, Japan and South Korea have a tendency to form alliances or even alliances. In particular, in order to win over South Korea, the United States has strengthened its military presence on the peninsula and frequently sent strategic assets such as aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and nuclear bombers to the Korean Peninsula. All of this has put North Korea under unprecedented external pressure.
The second is that South Korea has a president Yoon Suk-yeol who is more pro-American than ever. Kim Jong-un characterized it as colluding with external forces. And once it is characterized as collusion with external forces, it means that the nature of the incident has changed qualitatively.
Third, what is especially unacceptable to North Korea is that a few days ago, Yoon Suk-yeol actually asked the South Korean military to "respond and retaliate immediately before notifying your superiors, and immediately crush the enemy's attempt to provoke on the spot." For the North Korean side, it can be described as "tolerable or intolerable." Under such circumstances, the DPRK, which has never been willing to be inferior in the war of public opinion and propaganda, will naturally make a more radical statement.
Straight News: Kim Jong-un also said that he will fundamentally change the direction of his policy toward South Korea, especially emphasizing that "the two Koreas will never be able to achieve reunification." What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: As I said earlier, Kim Jong-un's remarks were taken under the pressure of the "new Cold War" of the United States and the bloc confrontation between the United States, Japan and South Korea, as well as the irrational remarks made by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. It does not necessarily reflect the facts, let alone the future direction of the situation.
Here, then, I would also like to reiterate a few basic facts: The first is that the division of the peninsula into two countries is the product of the Cold War confrontation between the two ideologies of mankind and the East and the West, as well as the confrontation between the two camps of the East and the West. And this confrontation is not permanent, it is only a few decades old, and with the disintegration of the Eastern Bloc in the nineties of the last century, the global ideological cold war has basically ended. The division and confrontation between the two Koreas is nothing but a remnant of this Cold War. Second, the DPRK and the ROK used to be of the same culture, the same race and the same blood, and are and will always be of the same culture, the same race and the same blood. Third, the modern nation-state emerged three or four hundred years ago, as a product of the Treaty of Westphalia. At its core, it is the establishment of a modern nation-state based on the division of ethnicities and races. So we see that, looking at the whole world, a single people on the same land is rarely divided into two nations. This is the reason why after the end of the Cold War between East and West, East and West Germany finally moved towards reunification. It is on the basis of these three basic factors that I believe that the Korean Peninsula will eventually move towards reunification.
The DPRK satellite carrier rocket was launched from the Dongchang-ri launch site in Cheolsan-gun, North Pyongan Province.
Straight News: Kim Jong-un also said in his speech that three military reconnaissance satellites will be launched in 2024, and unmanned aircraft and electronic warfare equipment will be developed. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, whether it is launching military reconnaissance satellites or developing unmanned aircraft and electronic warfare equipment, they all need the support of high-precision science and technology. After the successful launch of the military reconnaissance satellite "Wanlijing-1" in November 2023, North Korea immediately stated that it would launch three more military reconnaissance satellites this year, as well as research and development of unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare equipment, which means that North Korea has strengthened its confidence in the development of high-end armaments. At the same time, since all this happened after Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia last year and the accusation that the West had provided North Korea with ammunition, it was natural for Western public opinion to conclude that Russia had provided relevant technical support to North Korea.
In my opinion, if this judgment is true, it is only the result of the ideological "new Cold War" and bloc confrontation between the Western world in a broad sense led by the United States on the Russia-Ukraine war, the Indo-Pacific situation, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. It is precisely because Western countries have fully supported Ukraine and isolated Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war that Russia has to seek to join forces with North Korea and ask North Korea to provide ammunition support, and it is precisely because the United States, Japan and South Korea are engaged in bloc confrontation against North Korea on the Korean Peninsula that North Korea has to further fall into the arms of Russia and seek military and technical support from Russia.
Therefore, we see that the United States is clearly helping South Korea launch its first military reconnaissance satellite, and Russia is providing high-end military technology to the DPRK, which not only further escalates the arms race on the peninsula and further tense the situation on the peninsula, but at the same time, stimulated by the military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK, South Korea is also bound to increase its efforts to provide military aid to Ukraine, and the bloc confrontation between the two sides in the Russian-Ukrainian war is also bound to become intense.
However, despite this, I still insist that because both the United States has stepped up its military support for South Korea and the United States, Japan, and South Korea, or North Korea has sought military and technical support from Russia, the purpose of both sides is to "defend" rather than to "take the initiative to attack," that is, to prevent the other side from attacking them militarily. Therefore, under these circumstances, there has been no major war on the peninsula for more than 70 years, and it is still unlikely that a new round of large-scale war will break out on the peninsula in the next few years.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".