Straight news: French President Emmanuel Macron warned in a speech at the Sorbonne in Paris that Europe is now "moribund and there is a possibility of extinction". What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Because Macron once asserted that NATO is already in a state of "brain death", but the final result is that NATO is not only not dead, but also reactivated by the Russia-Ukraine war. Therefore, I believe that many people will see Macron's assertion as alarmist and sensational, and its purpose is to save the Macron government's sluggish popularity in France, and to help France win the upcoming European Parliament elections.
However, I want to say that this view is biased, and Macron's assertion at least reflects the anxiety and even fear faced by a considerable number of European countries, especially Central and Eastern European countries, as well as a considerable number of European people, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. If this anxiety and fear did not exist, Sweden and Finland would not have vigorously demanded NATO membership, and at the same time, a considerable number of European countries, including Germany, would not have vigorously expanded their armaments, and even small neutral countries such as Switzerland would have given up their neutrality to a certain extent and devoted themselves to arms expansion.
It is undeniable that the anxiety and terror of this part of European countries and European people mainly come from two aspects-
The first is that the current state of Western countries supporting Ukraine to win against Russia, and Russia's state of not only not backing down but increasing the war, may lead to the Russian-Ukrainian war getting out of control, and eventually a catastrophic nuclear war between Russia and Europe, and Europe will die out as a result.
The second is that a considerable number of European countries are worried that Ukraine, which is short of both troops and weapons, will eventually be defeated and unified by Russia. As a result, those Central and Eastern European countries, like Ukraine, which were once Soviet republics, will feel sad.
Straight News: In his speech, Macron also once again called on Europe to get rid of its dependence on the United States and achieve true strategic autonomy. Do you think Europe now has an opportunity to achieve strategic autonomy?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, over the years, Macron has been calling on Europe to get rid of the United States and achieve strategic autonomy, but in the past, basically no one believed or listened. However, I believe that in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe has indeed ushered in an unprecedented opportunity to achieve strategic autonomy compared to the past.
In the past, Europe's security was mainly protected by the United States. However, after the end of the Cold War, due to the disintegration of the Eastern Bloc and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the entire world security pattern has undergone new changes. In other words, the United States has no time to look at Europe. Such a state of affairs has also forced Europe to become self-reliant and strategically autonomous.
In recent years, especially after several wars in the Middle East have been defeated and a lot of national strength has been wasted, the left-wing interventionist line in the United States has begun to decline, and the right-wing independentist line has begun to rise. This is typified by the rise of Donald Trump, who pursues an "America First" policy, in American politics. According to Trump, the United States should not only not interfere in European affairs, but also "Indo-Pacific" affairs. If Trump is re-elected president, not only will the United States give up military aid to Ukraine, but even NATO may face disintegration, and US-EU relations will also face the question of where to go.
Straight News: We note that in his speech, Macron not only called for Europe to achieve strategic autonomy, but even supported the concept of "European sovereignty". What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Obviously, when Macron talks about European sovereignty, he means that the current European countries will give up their independent sovereign status and merge into a sovereign and unified "European state".
I think that's a very bold idea. As you know, since the division of the Roman Empire into two around 500 AD and the fall of the Western Roman Empire, the whole of Europe has not been truly unified politically, militarily and internally, but has been divided into a scattered state of many kingdoms and even small city-states, and even economically in a feudal state.
In order to prevent the recurrence of the tragic wars of World War I and World War II, the post-war European countries learned from the pain and embarked on a difficult road of integration, starting with the coal and steel joint venture between Germany and France, and gradually building the European Community, and now the European Union, so that Europe finally completed economic unification. In addition, due to the previous Renaissance and the Enlightenment, Europe has long been unified in ideology and values. Then, as long as Europe achieves political and military unity on the basis of complete integration of ideology, values and economy, Macron's "European state" will be completed. Obviously, Macron wants to take advantage of the external pressure of the Russia-Ukraine war to finally promote the formation of a unified Europe.
However, I believe that despite this, there will be two major difficulties in the final realization of the "European nation". First, after World War I, World War II, and the Cold War, the majority of the European people no longer pursued the freedom and happiness of small countries and widows; second, not only did several traditional powers on the European continent, including Germany, France, and Italy, obey anyone, but there were also considerable differences and contradictions between Western Europe, Northern Europe, and Central and Eastern Europe.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Huang Haining, Editor-in-Chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News