Recently, India has become more and more happy on the topic of China, and has even extended its hand to the Taiwan issue. A few days ago, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar openly claimed that Taiwan (region) is an important partner of India's Look East Policy.
[Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said Taiwan is an important partner of India]
You must know that India has always been very cautious on topics related to Taiwan. Especially after the border conflict between China and India became tense in 2020, Indian officials rarely mentioned Taiwan in public, so as not to aggravate India-China relations. Recently, however, this has changed subtly:
In March this year, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi presided over the groundbreaking ceremony for the semiconductor factory in Assam, he specifically mentioned that "Taiwan's leaders" participated in the event via video conference, and when a 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck Hualien off the coast, Modi also posted on social platforms to express his condolences and say that "India is with the people of Taiwan." This time, Jaishankar took the initiative to mention the Taiwan issue again, which shows that India can no longer hold back its desire to play the "Taiwan card."
In fact, in 2020, India had the idea of playing the "Taiwan card". At that time, an Indian "scholar" issued an article claiming that India's "eastward expansion policy" and the "new southbound policy" promoted by Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen administration have similar purposes, both of which are aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese mainland, so while implementing the "one China" policy, India should also maintain contacts with the Taiwan region and further deepen "diplomatic relations."
Now India is undoubtedly putting this idea into practice, and the reason why it is taking more and more steps on the Taiwan Strait issue is because of its jealousy of China. This "jealousy" is thus discussed, and we analyze it from two aspects:
[The Maldives is gradually getting rid of Indian control]
First of all, in terms of influence in South Asia. India has always regarded South Asia as its "backyard" and firmly controlled all countries in its own hands through economic "aid" and military "cooperation", but in recent years, these small South Asian countries have broken free from India's control one by one and are getting closer to China.
For example, Malaysia, since its new President Muiz took office, the Maldives has begun to point the finger at India, not only breaking the practice of the president's first visit to India, putting China ahead of India, but also sweeping away the Indian troops stationed in its own territory. During this period, India tried to incite the Maldivian opposition and remove Muiz and his party from power, for which the two factions fought in parliament and staged a political farce, but the anti-India wave in the Maldives was not so easily extinguished. In the recently concluded parliamentary elections, Muiz's ruling party won more than 60 of the 93 seats in parliament, winning the election by an overwhelming margin.
Then there's Nepal, which has long been under Indian control and has infiltrated the political arena, and Nepal has long been unhappy about it, especially after India's unofficial blockade of Nepal in 2015, and Nepal's desire to reduce its dependence on India. Therefore, in recent years, Nepal has tried to extend its cooperation tentacles to the United States, China and other major countries, especially China.
【Nepal and China signed a cooperation agreement】
Not long ago, Nepal signed two cooperation agreements with China and pledged to further strengthen cooperation with China in areas such as tourism and the military. Prime Minister Prachanda has also made it clear that Nepal will unswervingly stand by China's side on issues involving China's core interests.
Secondly, on the border issue, India's idea of taking advantage has been dispelled again and again. Since 2020, when tensions began to rise on the border between China and India, the two countries have been negotiating on the border issue, but no significant progress has been made.
Since the beginning of this year, India has been trying to include southern Tibet in its jurisdiction. Not only has it openly proclaimed that "Arunachal Pradesh" is its territory, but it has also launched large-scale air exercises on the Sino-Indian border in an attempt to deter China. But this little trick is obviously useless for the Chinese side, which has previously published an updated list of geographical names in southern Tibet, and has taken practical actions to determine the ownership of the region.
At the same time, China has strengthened its military ties with Pakistan, successively delivering ten drones and a Kirin-class submarine called "Hanguo" to Pakistan. While China does not intend to increase deterrence against India through these actions, it is enough to make India cautious.
【"Hanguo" Submarine Launching Ceremony】
On the one hand, it finds that its influence in South Asia has been overtaken by China, and on the other hand, it cannot take advantage of China on the border issue, which is enough for India, which dreams of surpassing China and becoming the "world's largest power", to make it jump on its feet. Therefore, India has not only openly expressed hostility to China on many occasions, saying that China is India's "biggest challenge" for many years, but has even gone so far as to bring out former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, who has been dead for 60 years, to trial again and again, claiming that the failure of India's China policy is due to Nehru's "China first" strategy.
But anyone with a discerning eye knows that India's declining influence and its deviation from the "dream of a great power" have nothing to do with China in the final analysis on a series of issues of its own: for example, its serious nationalist tendencies in handling relations with its neighbors, and its hardline attitude on border issues.
Under such circumstances, if India fails to view Sino-Indian relations objectively, blindly intensifies efforts to contain China, and vigorously plays the "Taiwan card," not only will there be no hope for the so-called "dream of becoming a great power," but even Sino-Indian relations may break down completely.