Straight News: What do you think about Biden's harsh criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then his attempt to downplay it?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think Biden's sudden harsh criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this time has actually sent us several political signals – one is that in the face of overwhelming political and moral pressure from the international community, the United States, which has been trying to single-handedly support Israel, has finally begun to show signs that it cannot withstand it. In particular, at the tenth emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly on the 12th of this month, a resolution was again adopted by an overwhelming majority calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. Not only did 153 countries support the resolution, but even Australia, Canada, and Japan, which had traditionally followed the lead of the United States, switched from abstaining to voting in favor. For the United States, this is really a little unbearable on the face.
Second, since the outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, there has not only been an ethnic rift in American society, but also a serious confusion in values. In the United States, although the mainstream public opinion is still pro-Israel, there are a large number of young students, teachers, and even principals on elite university campuses who support Hamas and oppose Israel. It is precisely under these circumstances that a serious confrontation broke out between the "pro-Israel faction" and the "pro-Kazakhstan faction" in the United States, and as a result, a discussion arose as to whether the "pro-Kazakhstan faction" had freedom of speech. Such a disagreement has also become an unbearable burden for American society.
Third, Biden's staunch support for Israel has had a serious impact on his electoral performance. Before the conflict between Israel and Hamas, Biden's approval rating was stable and well ahead of Trump, but after the conflict broke out, Trump's approval rating has stabilized and is far ahead of Biden. I believe that it is precisely because of these three factors that Biden's emotions have spiraled out of control, and the differences and contradictions between Biden and Netanyahu have gradually become public.
Straight News: What do you think of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's public call for Israel to end large-scale air strikes and ground operations within three weeks and shift to a smaller-scale precision strike against Hamas?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, what kind of strategy the Israeli army adopts to attack Hamas is a very confidential matter, and the US side can discuss it with Israel in private. However, Sullivan chose to publicly appeal to Israel, obviously, first, to express dissatisfaction with Israel's brutal attack on the Gaza Strip some time ago, second, to show that the Biden administration is trying to keep an appropriate distance from Israel, so as not to drag down the election results of Biden and the Democratic Party, and third, to show that the United States and Israel have not negotiated between the United States and Israel on how to fight Hamas and for how long.
So in the face of the Biden administration's public play of chess, will the Netanyahu government listen? I think it will. The reason behind this is that in this world, the United States is not only the only country that has a decisive influence on Israel, but also the only supporter of Israel's military action against Hamas, and at the same time the only tactical adviser and even a co-participant. We can even say that without the support of the United States in international politics and armaments, Israel would not have been able to fight at all. In addition, in essence, the Biden administration does not want to fundamentally negate Israel's strategy of eliminating Hamas, let alone completely stop Israel's military operations, but only to make Israel change its tactics of attacking Hamas, that is, to make Israel fight more "civilized", less barbaric, and especially not to excessively harm innocent civilians.
So I think that, according to the requirements of the United States, in three to four weeks, Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip will enter a new phase, that is, to change the current tactics of simply and brutally attacking Hamas, to carry out precision strikes on the Gaza Strip, and to use intelligence agencies to hunt down Hamas leaders. This means that in order to complete the task assigned by the United States, the Israeli army will do whatever it takes to "meet the deadline", and the fighting in the Gaza Strip will be even more brutal and tragic in the next three to four weeks. After that, the intensity of the war between Israel and Hamas will drop sharply, but the Israeli army's precision strikes against Hamas and the pursuit of Hamas leaders will enter a long-term period. At the same time, I also believe that in order to "reward" the Netanyahu government's "obedient" behavior, in return, the Biden administration's support for Israel will only increase rather than weaken, that is, to provide more precision-guided weapons and intelligence support for the next Israeli army's precision strikes and pursuit operations, and even do not rule out sending small-scale US special forces to participate in the operation.
Straight News: What do you think about the Biden administration's repetition of the "two-state solution" to completely resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but Israel opposes it?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that judging from the current battlefield situation, it can be expected that with the full political and military support of the United States, Israel can basically achieve its goal of resolving the Hamas issue by military means. The basic objective is to eliminate the main forces of Hamas so that Hamas no longer exists in the Gaza Strip as a formed force, but only in the form of fragmentation and sporadic terrorist attacks. After the initial achievement of this military objective, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will eventually enter the stage of political settlement.
But at the same time, I believe that the next political solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not only not be easier than before the Israeli-Hamas conflict, but will become more complex and difficult to solve. There are two reasons behind this: first, after the tragic attacks and retaliations between Hamas and Israel, the contradictions and hatred between Israelis and Palestinians will only deepen, and it will become more difficult for the two sides to coexist; second, because the international community has not only failed to mediate and resolve disputes, but these two conflicts have further torn apart the international community and weakened the role of the international community.
Its concrete manifestation is that, on the one hand, although the UN General Assembly has made an overwhelming absolute majority judgment on who is right and who is wrong in the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict between Israel and Hamas, in the end the decisions of the UN General Assembly have become dead letters and have not played any role; on the other hand, although the UN Security Council has the right to resolve the conflict, because the five permanent members have fallen into a state of division and confrontation on this issue, due to the partiality of individual countries, and in the end they have not even been able to make a resolution to uphold justice. Under such circumstances, how can we expect an "international community" whose prestige has been seriously impacted and harmed to resolve the long-standing and difficult issue between Palestine and Israel?
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".