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Global coal use is expected to reach a record high in 2023 as demand from emerging market and developing economies remains strong, according to the International Energy Agency's 2023 Coal Market Report released on December 15. Global coal demand is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2023 to exceed 8.5 billion tonnes for the first time, the IEA said.
Global coal demand will still fall by 2.3% in 2026 compared to 2023, driven by a significant expansion of renewable energy capacity, driven by a significant expansion of renewable energy capacity, even if governments do not announce and implement stronger clean energy and climate policies. In addition, global coal trade is expected to shrink as demand declines in the coming years. This is the first time the report has predicted a decline in global coal demand.
The IEA reports that more than half of the global renewable energy capacity expansion will occur in China, where coal demand is expected to decline in 2024 and level off in 2026.
-- The world has a long history of coal application
The use of coal in the world can be traced back to BC, and China was the first country in the world to use coal. From the Industrial Revolution to World War I and World War II, coal has become the world's main fuel source, and in the 21st century, with the development of emerging technologies, the global coal industry has entered a process of intensification and informatization.
-- Global coal overcapacity, prices may have passed their peak
As one of the oldest forms of energy, the global coal industry has developed relatively mature mining technologies with its long history, and coal production has basically stabilized at more than 150 tons in recent years, and there is an upward trend. In 2020, global coal production fell to 159.6EJ due to the impact of the epidemic, which is still an increase compared with 2007.
In terms of consumption, since 2007, global coal consumption has shown an overall upward trend. In 2020, global coal consumption was 151.42EJ, and there was a certain surplus of coal production.
From the perspective of the global coal price index, coal prices in 2008 were at the peak of nearly a decade, and after a small peak in 2011 and 2018, the global coal price index fell further in 2020. The price index in the northwest of Europe was $50.3/ton, the United States was $42.8/mt, and the highest price index in Asia was $71.3/mt.
Michelle Manook, CEO of FutureCoal (formerly the World Coal Association), said that clean technologies, especially in the thermal coal industry, can effectively reduce pollution emissions and are more cost-effective than using renewable energy, and that it is short-sighted to phase out coal. It is reported that in recent years, technologies such as high-efficiency and low-emission, integrated coal gasification combined cycle power generation and biomass co-combustion have developed rapidly. Michelle Manook believes that coal is an important energy source for China and India, and that in order to achieve emission reductions and take into account the positions and needs of developing countries, it is necessary to face up to the coal industry and develop emission reduction technologies.
Tang Shemin, the second-level inspector of the Economic Operation and Adjustment Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that it is expected that the supply and demand of coal in the mainland will continue to be stable in 2024. From the demand point of view, the rapid development of new energy, as a replacement for coal power is accelerating, and with the continuous development of economic stabilization policies, the coal demand of the non-power industry may exceed the expected growth, the total demand for thermal coal is expected to remain unchanged, overall if coal imports are not greatly affected next year, the supply of coal in the mainland is guaranteed.
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