It seems to be an indisputable fact that climate change has led to more frequent natural disasters. Both the relevant United Nations agencies and the mainstream media have spoken out about it. In Europe and the United States, young climate protectors are taking to the streets to fight for the "future generation".
However, Axel Bojanowski, editor-in-chief of the science section of the German newspaper Die Welt, found out by studying the data of the Belgian Center for the Epidemiology of Disasters: this is a lie. "Not only has the number of disasters not increased, but the impact is even smaller than before," he said. ”
Screenshot of the German newspaper Die Welt with the caption: "Climate change: disaster scam"
Time magazine said that "natural disasters are getting worse" to warn of the seriousness of climate change. Der Spiegel quoted a United Nations department as saying that "the number of natural disasters is five times higher than in the 70s of the last century". Scientific American magazine wrote in a report that "the number of natural disasters is at an all-time high, causing billions of dollars in damage." Due to major media reports, it has become common knowledge that weather disasters are becoming more frequent, but this is not the case. Why are there so many misreports? The reason lies in deceptive statistics.
The Belgian Centre for the Study of Disaster Epidemiology (CRED) collects data on natural disasters and is responsible for the maintenance of the Emergency Disaster Database (EM-DAT). According to the Centre's chart, there has been a marked increase in the number of disasters, however, the chart does not record the actual frequency of disasters, but only the number reported.
In the early days, only a few disasters were reported. In the entire Soviet Union, for example, only five weather disasters were recorded in the database in the 60 years from 1920 to 1980, and the number of reports has increased since then. In the three years from 1981 to 1983 alone, the database recorded seven disasters in the former Soviet Union. In addition to meteorological disasters, similar situations occur in the records of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions: at first there were almost no reports of disasters, but since the 80s of the 20th century, the number of reports has increased. The number of natural disasters inevitably increases with the number of reports.
In its 2007 report, the center noted: "It is misleading to attribute climate change primarily to the rise in weather disasters and their impacts. "It wasn't until 2000 that the data from the Emergency Disaster Database could be trusted, because mobile phone photos are now available even in remote areas.
The number of global disasters in the last 20 years. Black, blue, yellow and red represent: geological disasters, hydrological disasters, meteorological disasters, climatic disasters (Data: United Nations Electronic Library, tabulation: Le Monde)
According to the graph, the frequency of weather disasters has decreased since then, but database researchers have had difficulty communicating this information to the public. Debby Guha-Sapir, a researcher, said three years ago that "just because our data show that the number of disasters is not increasing, we get a lot of hate mail," she said, "and nobody wants to hear good news." ”
In addition, there has been no increase in weather disasters in Europe since the number of disaster reports became credible.
However, the risk of damage from extreme weather increases. On the one hand, as a result of climate change, rising global temperatures, increased rainfall in localized areas, and rising storm surge water levels have led to an increase in the area affected: as the global population increases dramatically and the range of settlements expands, so does the risk of loss.
Economic losses due to extreme weather as a percentage of global GDP, 1990-2023. Source: Pielke/
Münchener Re/ World Bank, Tabulation: Le Monde
On the other hand, insurance costs have also increased. But this is due to inflation and the expansion of towns and cities. When price growth is taken into account, today's weather disasters are no more devastating than they used to be. Excluding inflation and economic growth, adjusted insured loss statistics show that insured losses caused by extreme weather are even trending downward.
The likelihood of death from weather disasters has even dropped by more than 95 percent. Although the global population has quadrupled since the beginning of the 20th century, far fewer people are affected by weather disasters than in the past. Through better disaster prediction, buildings and infrastructure, even poor countries have become more resilient.
The average number of deaths caused by natural disasters per year in each 10-year period from 1920 to 2020. Source: Our World in Data, tabulated: Le Monde
But the United Nations has urged in its climate report that intensifying climate change will exacerbate climate risks. Whether extreme weather turns into a disaster depends on protective measures.
Until now, the effects of warming on extreme weather could not be understood from long-term disaster data, so scientists are trying to study it through computer models. The United Nations claims in its climate report that climate change poses long-term risks and that the timing of its occurrence is uncertain, such as the melting of large ice sheets. And the effects of rising sea levels will not be felt until centuries later...
Therefore, it seems more effective to integrate current disasters into climate change discussions than to warn about the consequences of climate disasters. Science journalist David Roberts quipped: "If you want extreme weather to be synonymous with climate change for humanity, you have to actively work on it." Nature doesn't do it for you. ”
Written by Axel Bojanowski
Compiler: Lee, Proofreader: Pi
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