Since ancient times, all kinds of heroes and heroes have been discussing the fate of this American empire, which really gives me a headache for this little observer. It's creepy to hear that the U.S. economy is going to be on a path of no return to collapse than the last time it was called, well, the Great Depression.
But then again, the U.S. does have a lot of economic problems. It does not bode well to hear that while inflation has eased, core inflation risks remain on the horizon. Besides, banking risks are rising, and small banks that issue fixed rates on mortgages are really in trouble, and if the Fed continues to keep interest rates high, their future is really uncertain.
America's economic resilience should not be underestimated. I heard a certain high-ranking person say that although the US economy has slowed down and declined in some areas, not all areas have collapsed together, so it seems that the US economy can barely survive. And, despite the Fed's record pace of rate hikes in nearly four decades, monetary policy does not seem to have completely limited everyone's momentum. It is said that this is called the time lag effect, that is, the impact of interest rate hikes has not been fully transmitted to the real economy.
In June, the World Bank raised its forecast for U.S. growth this year to 1.1 percent. Oh, that's unexpected. Even the International Monetary Fund's July forecast said that the US economy will grow by 1.8% in 2023 and 1% in 2024. It seems that it is a bit premature to say in advance whether the US economy will collapse or not.
Of course, if the United States continues to engage in the tricks of "decoupling and breaking chains" and "small courtyards and high walls", then even if its economy is resilient, I am afraid it will not be able to withstand such consumption. After all, only open cooperation can bring real prosperity to a country. There is a Mei Xinyu person who said well, the most important thing in international competition is not to set up obstacles for other countries, but to make every effort to improve themselves. It is a pity that the United States has spent all its energy on restricting China and creating trouble for China, which is artificially creating some unnecessary troubles and political risks, raising corporate costs, and reducing investment and innovation motivation.
While America's economic outlook is clouding, let me tell you the good news. I heard that many international institutions are full of optimism about China's economy. Citibank recently raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year from 4.7 percent to 5 percent, saying that it was due to the stabilization of many economic indicators and a series of official policies to support economic growth. They say China's retail and industrial production are expected to improve, manufacturing is likely to re-expand, and exports won't fall too much. They even say that China's economy has "formed a cyclical bottom" and that everyone is now watching to see if effective demand picks up in the face of increased policies.
I heard that the secretary general of UNCTAD Greenspan also said that they do not agree with the very pessimistic forecasts of the Chinese economy. They believe that China is different from other countries, China has a lot of fiscal space, so there are still ways to achieve economic rebound and support.
Moreover, the just-concluded Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday highlights the vitality of China's economic recovery. According to official data, in this super "golden week", there were 826 million trips, an increase of 71.3% over the same period last year, and even an increase of 4.1% over the same period in 2019. Tourism revenue reached RMB753.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 129.5% and an increase of 1.5% over the same period in 2019. It can be said that the recovery momentum of the cultural and tourism industry is quite strong.
So, brothers, we still have to maintain a normal mind about the future of the American economy, whether it will collapse or not, this is really an unsolved mystery. However, I am quite confident about the recovery of China's economy. We have a good saying Chinese, "The water of the Yellow River rises from the sky, rushes to the sea and never returns." Therefore, as long as we adhere to openness and cooperation, and make every effort to improve ourselves, China's economy will surely prosper and move towards a more brilliant tomorrow!
Zhuang Zi said: "If you want to know the affairs of the world, everything under the world is a thing." "Dear friends, what do you think about the prospects of this American economy? Come and leave a message to discuss!