Straight News: Mr. Liu, why did Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Qingde "submit" a letter to the US media at this time, proposing the so-called "four pillars" of safeguarding peace in the Taiwan Strait?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think this is the result of the triple situation at home, China, and abroad.
Internally, the Blue Camp has positioned the game between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde in this election as a choice between war and peace in the Taiwan Strait in the future, forcing Lai Qingde to make a statement. At the same time, in the election situation, Ke Wenzhe later came to the top in the poll and even once surpassed Lai Qingde, which also made Lai Qingde have to come forward to prove his ability to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait.
At the intermediate level, Chinese mainland is still putting pressure on the United States through various channels not to support Lai Qingde, the "golden grandson of Taiwan independence", otherwise there will be no tranquility in the Taiwan Strait.
Of course, more pressure comes from outside, especially from the United States. In recent years, the Biden administration has carried out a series of dazzling layouts around the situation in the Taiwan Strait, including politically strengthening the alliances between the United States and Japan, the United States and South Korea, and the United States and Australia, as well as the formation of the U.S.-U.K.-Australia Alliance and the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" mechanism between the United States, Japan, India and Australia, and militarily build an encirclement circle against the Taiwan Strait by strengthening the US military presence in Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines Taiwan independence", and the demand that the two sides of the strait must settle disputes peacefully. Of course, the United States knows better that the Taiwan Strait will be the top priority of war and peace in the future, and whether Taiwan will truly move towards "Taiwan independence." Therefore, Sun Xiaoya, director of the "American Institute in Taiwan," openly pointed out when meeting with the three candidates on the island that avoiding war between the two sides of the strait is the common responsibility of all decision-makers. This is tantamount to openly assigning a homework to Hou Youyi, Ke Wenzhe, and Lai Qingde, asking them to express their position on "how to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait once they are elected." Moreover, this assignment is mainly assigned to Lai Qingde, because the United States is most uneasy about Lai Qingde, the "golden grandson of Taiwan independence."
Understanding this, we can know that the so-called "four pillars" of safeguarding peace in the Taiwan Strait are actually the answers Lai Qingde submitted to the United States.
Straight News: What is your interpretation of the specific content of the "four pillars" of defending peace in the Taiwan Strait proposed by Lai Qingde?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think that the so-called "four pillars" of safeguarding peace in the Taiwan Strait proposed by Lai Qingde are still very deceptive, and some people who do not know what is going on can easily be fooled.
First of all, all people with a little common sense know that the military is only an extension of politics, and politics is the basis of the military. To ensure military peace, one must first put forward one's own political proposition. However, Lai Qingde put the cart before the horse and did the opposite, putting military means first, and he proposed that the first "pillar" for safeguarding peace in the Taiwan Strait is actually to strengthen Taiwan's military deterrence capability. I believe that this statement is obviously in favor of the United States, which not only believes in the determinism of strength and is seeking so-called war avoidance by preparing for war around the Taiwan Strait, but also requires Taiwan to follow suit. Lai Qingde is apparently assuring the United States that Taiwan will "ensure cross-strait peace" by purchasing more armaments from the United States in the future.
Lai Qingde's second "pillar" for safeguarding peace in the Taiwan Strait is to strengthen Taiwan's economic security, especially the security of supply chains. The subtext behind this is that once Lai Qingde is elected, he will actively respond to the call of the United States for "de-risking" economic and trade exchanges with Chinese mainland, closely follow the pace of the United States in key supply chain fields, especially the chip field, and resolutely "decouple" from Chinese mainland.
Lai's third "pillar" is building partnerships with global democracies. If you peel off the beautiful coat of this sentence, its true face is actually that once elected in the future, Lai Qingde will actively respond to the Biden administration's call to unite all allies to fight a so-called ideological "new cold war" with Chinese mainland, and let Taiwan become the bridgehead of this ideological "new cold war".
Of course, what is even more deceptive is Lai Qingde's fourth "pillar," that is, supporting the so-called "maintenance of the status quo" on both sides of the strait, because this status quo is in line with the name of the current regime on the island. Not only the US side, but even some people on the island believe that this statement contains the meaning of the "consensus of '92" and that Lai Qingde is expressing goodwill to the mainland. However, I would like to remind everyone that when Lai Qingde mentioned the current regime on the island, he still added a parenthesis behind it, saying that this is the "official name of Taiwan." And the addition of the word "Taiwan" after the current regime on the island is not exactly Tsai Ing-wen's "invention and creation", and is not it just "hidden Taiwan independence" that is like a fake package?
In addition to these "four pillars," Lai Qingde also pointed out that the possibility of cross-strait dialogue based on the so-called "principle of reciprocity and dignity" without preconditions should never be ruled out. In my view, the so-called "no presupposition of political preconditions" actually means not to have the "consensus of '92." Therefore, this statement is also Lai Qingde's explicit denial of the "consensus of '92."
Straight News: What impact will the "four pillars" of defending peace in the Taiwan Strait put forward by Lai Qingde have on the situation on the island and in the Taiwan Strait?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I have several basic judgments on this——
The first is that the "four pillars" of safeguarding peace in the Taiwan Strait proposed by Lai Qingde not only completely follow the line of Tsai Ing-wen in the past seven years, but also highly refine and summarize what Tsai Ing-wen has done and said in the past. It is a pity that Lai Qingde regards Tsai Ing-wen's line as a treasure for maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait, but he forgets that Tsai Ing-wen's line is precisely the root cause of the turmoil and almost spiral out of control in the Taiwan Strait over the past seven years. Therefore, I believe that Lai Qingde is "asking the ghost to catch the medicine list". However, this also confirms my earlier judgment that the 2024 election is still a showdown between Ma Ying-jeou's line and Tsai Ing-wen's line, and Lai Qingde has copied Tsai's line, and Hou Youyi is also rapidly approaching and returning to Ma Ying-jeou's line.
The second basic judgment is that since announcing his candidacy, Lai Qingde has been using all kinds of rhetoric in an attempt to cover up or even wash away his label of "golden grandson of Taiwan independence." However, no matter what kind of "vest" Lai Qingde wears, people with "golden eyes of fire" can see that he is a stubborn "Taiwan independence" element who is like a fake bag. Lai Qingde has hidden the idea of "Taiwan independence" behind submitting his homework to the United States, which means that he is still handing over to the "Taiwan independence" forces on the island, indicating that he has made a prediction of the current election situation, that is, in the current situation of the three-legged victory, especially Ke Wenzhe and Hou Youyi, who are striving for pan-blue votes, he can win the victory as long as he consolidates and protects the basic green camp of three to four percent of the DPP.
The third basic judgment is that compared with the United States' support for the "one-China policy" and its support for "Taiwan independence," the "four pillars" of safeguarding peace in the Taiwan Strait proposed by Lai Qingde are actually a big step back. He not only denied "one China," but also did not draw a clear line with "Taiwan independence." I think it is precisely because he is worried that the United States will not "receive the goods" that Lai Qingde will try his best to curry favor and bribe the United States in the "four major propositions". As for whether the US side will eventually "receive the goods", we only need to observe what kind of treatment the Biden administration will give when Lai Qingde goes to South America next month to attend the inauguration of the President of Paraguay and "transit through the United States".
The author丨Liu Heping is a special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"
Editor丨Yang Ying, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV
Typesetting丨Tang Leyi, Shenzhen Satellite TV direct news editor