Posted on 8.9.
In the context of the Great Recession, everyone's expectations are not good, but last Friday's US employment data was unexpectedly good, and the bullish bottom came too suddenly.
Everyone has speculated about the directivity of employment data, and even some people doubt the authenticity of the data...
If we look at the consolidated table, the US price level (PCE) reached a new high again in June, while manufacturing (PMI) slipped to a new low in June and July, and personal consumption picked up in June, but remained at a relatively low level over the same period. There are many signs that inflation levels have continued and economic pressures have increased.
But at this time, after 4 consecutive months of standing still, the shaky employment rate has actually risen! Although inflation and consumption are only in June, how does this unemployment rate match the declining PMI data?
August is destined to be a long-short melee, a chaotic situation.
In terms of grease:
1, palm also look at the Indonesian to the library situation
Indonesia's high inventory is still a clichéd problem, but it must also be "discussed", because it is one of the culprits of the previous collapse of palm oil, and it will also greatly affect the direction of palm in the next six months.
The biggest reason for Indonesia's high inventory is the policy ban on exports, which is equivalent to reflux, the problem is that Indonesia's domestic consumption is not satisfactory, and the digestion speed is slow.
After that, the Indonesian government proposed to increase exports (from August 1, Indonesia will also increase the number of domestic sales and the proportion of export licenses obtained from 1:7 to 1:9. ), free of export tax, promote the policy of raw firewood three major ways to solve. Among them, the exemption from export tax from mid-to-late July to the end of August, August is a critical period for digesting inventory.
In terms of raw firewood, Indonesia launched road tests of B40 biodiesel on Wednesday. Indonesian officials have said that if B40 is implemented, an additional 2.5 million tons of palm oil can be digested each year.
PS: The crude palm oil export tax threshold has been reduced from $750 per ton to $680 per ton, and at current prices, there is an additional $19 tax per ton.
2, the two major supports have taken shape
After the sharp decline of palm oil, the cost performance of combustion has been greatly improved, while the palm oil industry has suffered losses, and enterprises have reduced production, and the willingness to raise prices is strong.
Or the old picture of the cost performance of combustion, the current palm oil price is hovering at a low level, and the cost performance of combustion is maintained near 95%, that is, only from the price and calorific value, it is currently an excellent time to produce biodiesel.
Palm oil bottomed out for nearly a month, the first few days of crude oil broke down sharply, and palm oil performance resistance, rebound fast, but also to verify the cost-effective, palm oil price in the fuel properties to follow the resistance.
On the other hand, malaysia has previously experienced a shutdown due to corporate losses. The plant will lose RM150,000 (US$34,068) for every 100 tonnes of crude palm oil produced. Processing plants that completed the acquisition contract have stopped buying fresh fruit skewers from suppliers. Downtime can range from one day to a week.
The current price of horse palm futures is at least 1500 yuan / ton lower than in June, and the bitter water at the industrial end has not yet been spit out, and the willingness to hold the price is still the same.
3, Malay production rebounded, maintaining bearishness
The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA) previously produced 1.375 million tonnes in July. Yields fell by 13 percent and production by 12 percent.
Data released by SPPOMA on Tuesday showed that malaysian oil palm fresh fruit bunch yields rose by 1.78% in July from the previous month, oil yields rose by 0.79%, and palm oil production increased by 6%.
There is a big difference between the actual and the estimate, and it seems that the association's estimate of the company's production reduction behavior is also biased.
According to its shipping survey agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1-5 were 211,500 tons, an increase of 21.45% from 174,200 tons exported in the same period in July.
On Friday, Indonesia agreed to resume sending migrant workers to Malaysia from Aug. 1. This helps alleviate the problem of insufficient labor on plantations in Malaysia.
Whether it is production or exports, labor problems, the Malay supply side is biased towards palm oil.
4, the U.S. bean hype is still the same, soybean oil demand is acceptable
The bean system is facing two major empty divergence point games, one is the drought in the United States, and the other is weak demand. The United States seems to be high temperature and drought, but the situation in the main soybean producing areas has not reached the point of deep water, and the southeast of the main producing areas has also ushered in rainfall, from the rebound of the excellent rate, the catch-up of the growth trend, and the trend of the disk surface can be reflected, and the weather problem is more difficult to heat the hype.
Weak demand As can be seen from the USDA's supply and demand report, U.S. soybean exports have dropped significantly. The domestic soybean oil consumption side has recently improved, and the inventory has reached the lowest level in the same period in 5 years, supporting prices.
In summary, judging from the US macro data, the Fed seems to be leading the market to believe that a recession is impossible, using expectations to reduce the consequences of a recession. But the Fed's attitude towards such high inflation does not seem to have relaxed. On the one hand, the interest rate hike does not let go, on the other hand, it guides the expected inflection point, is this a high move for a soft landing?
August is a large probability of a large shock of the data game period, palm oil on the increase in production, high inventory suppression, under the cost, cost-effective support, the possibility of shock is larger. The bean system still has to keep an eye on the weather in the United States, after all, the uncertainty is too strong. Relatively good weather conditions in the western savannah region of Canada have helped rapeseed crops to grow, and the probability of an expected increase in the supply of seeds in the new season has increased significantly, which has constrained rapeseed prices. In addition, the current domestic three major oil and fat inventory is relatively low, which plays a certain role in supporting oil and fat.
Part of the data in the article comes from Boseong Futures, Gapki, SPPOMA, wind, for reference only, does not represent the views of the platform and the institutions, and is at your own risk. The futures market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious!