17 cities advanced! Who is the next city with a population of 10 million?

National Strategy

2024-05-22 12:13Posted in Guangdong Finance and Economics Creator

Text: Kaifeng

Trillions of GDP and tens of millions of people are the common pursuit of almost all cities.

While the trillion GDP club continues to expand, the city matrix with a population of 10 million has not broken through for many years.

The population market has peaked, the war for people has become a zero-sum game, and the competition for tens of millions of people will only become more and more intense.

Who will fall out of the 10 million population club? Who are the next strong contenders?

The latest list of major cities with a population of 10 million in the country has been officially released.

In the past year, the country's permanent population has decreased by 2.08 million, but almost all of the megacities have maintained positive growth, reflecting the strong siphoning capacity of high-energy cities.

According to the latest data, there are 17 major cities with a population of 10 million in the mainland: Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Tianjin, Xi'an, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Linyi, Changsha, Dongguan and Qingdao.

17 cities advanced! Who is the next city with a population of 10 million?

Of the 17 cities with a population of 10 million, almost all of them are first- and second-tier cities, and only Linyi is an ordinary prefecture-level city.

Cities on the mainland are different from those in the international arena in that they are more of an administrative division, with both "cities" and a large number of counties and villages, while internationally they are limited to "cities".

Large cities with a population of 10 million abound on the mainland, but there is no horizontal comparison with international cities.

These populous cities can be roughly divided into three echelons.

The first echelon, Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing and Chengdu, has more than 20 million permanent residents.

Chongqing has more than 30 million people, Shanghai is close to 25 million people, Beijing and Chengdu are more than 21 million people, and Chengdu is approaching Beijing.

As the largest city in Chinese, Chongqing has a permanent population of about 32 million, a registered population of 34 million, and a planned population of 36 million in 2035.

Obviously, this is the concept of a broad city, and if Chongqing is considered as a province, the main metropolitan area is equivalent to the provincial capital.

Not long ago, Chongqing's main metropolitan area expanded again, from the original 9 districts to 21 districts and then to the latest 22 districts, with a population size of about 22 million, which is comparable to Chengdu.

The second echelon, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, have a permanent population of more than 17 million.

In the past year, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 93,000 and 128,000 respectively, reversing the negative growth situation during the epidemic period and returning to the growth track.

Although the permanent population of the two places is not as large as that of Chengdu-Chongqing in the north, the real-time population has exceeded 22 million when it is counted, including short-term populations such as business travel and family visits, and the number of people in Guangzhou is as high as 24 million.

As the largest province in terms of population, Guangdong may have four major cities with a population of 10 million in the future, and Foshan is only one step away from Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Dongguan.

The third echelon, Wuhan, Tianjin, Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Suzhou, etc., has a permanent population of between 10 million and 15 million.

These cities are dominated by strong provincial capitals and economically strong cities, and the population growth momentum of strong provincial capitals is even stronger, and there is no lack of possibility for them to catch up.

In the past three years, the position of the first city in population growth is no longer monopolized by Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, but is located in the central and western provinces, which have been won by Wuhan, Changsha and Hefei respectively.

If the provincial capital is strong, the whole province will be strong, which has almost become the consensus of the central and western provinces, and it has become a common choice to expand the economic and population level of the provincial capital.

In the past few years, several important changes have taken place in the matrix of cities with a population of 10 million in mainland China.

The first major change is that Zhengzhou has caught up with Suzhou, Wuhan has caught up with Tianjin, and Changsha has surpassed Qingdao and Dongguan, taking a step forward in the club of 10 million people.

This is a victory for the strong provincial capital. The three central provincial capitals all experienced negative population growth, with the exception of provincial capitals.

As stated in "Crazy Siphon"! Strong Provincial Capitals, Winning Again", behind the revival of land power is the contribution of the domestic cycle, the westward movement of industries, the opening of the hinterland, and the strategy of strengthening provincial capitals.

The second major change is that the population of Harbin has fallen below 10 million, and there is no longer a large city with a population of 10 million in Northeast China.

Harbin used to be the only city in Northeast China with a population of 10 million, but under the dual pressure of negative natural population growth and continuous loss of young population, the permanent population fell below 10 million for the first time in 2021.

In the past two years, Heilongjiang's population pattern has not yet reversed, and although Harbin has been promoted to an Internet celebrity city, its permanent population has not recovered growth.

In the short term, Kazakhstan may not have the possibility of returning to the club of 10 million people.

The third major change, the 10 million population club, is almost monopolized by first- and second-tier cities, leaving only Linyi, an ordinary prefecture-level city.

At its peak, the total population of Nanyang in Henan, Baoding in Hebei and Linyi in Shandong once exceeded 10 million, but Nanyang and Baoding fell below 10 million due to population loss or splitting and other factors.

Linyi is the most populous city in Shandong, surpassing Jinan and Qingdao, but the population level is not not a level.

As mentioned above, Linyi's 10 million is 10 million in the administrative area, and there are only 3 municipal districts, while there are as many as 9 counties dominated by agriculture.

Therefore, from the perspective of a stricter urban population, Linyi, which has a population of 10 million, has an urban population of less than 3 million, and is only ranked as a Type II large city.

Jinan and Qingdao are both megacities.

The battle for tens of millions of people is becoming more and more intense.

In the past 10 years, Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Qingdao and Changsha have collectively been promoted to the 10 million population club.

At present, in the major first- and second-tier cities, Hefei, Ningbo, Nanjing, Harbin, Jinan, Shenyang, and Changchun all have more than 9 million people, and they are expected to be promoted together in the next few years.

In addition, there are some third- and fourth-tier cities with the highest total population, including Wenzhou, Weifang, Handan, Xuzhou, Nanyang and other places.

However, urban population expansion is becoming more difficult today than it was a decade ago.

The national population market has peaked, and about two-thirds of the provinces have suffered negative population growth.

"Zero-sum" means, you increase and I decrease, you advance and I retreat, there are cities growing, there must be cities decreasing.

At the same time, a new round of competition is starting, and under the zero-sum game, major cities are no longer limited to competing for college students, but those who come do not refuse.

As long as it is a labor force, as long as it is a young person, as long as it is a person, it is among the strong.

It is not uncommon to buy a house and rent a house, and zero threshold settlement has become the standard configuration of the third and fourth lines.

It can be seen that the natural population can no longer provide new increments, and the population flow is facing a major reshuffle, and the battle for a large market with a population of 10 million will only become more and more intense.

The population pattern of ordinary coastal cities may be affected by foreign trade fluctuations and manufacturing trends, and it is worth paying attention to whether it can continue to stage the miracle of "peacock flying southeast".

In contrast, the provincial capitals in the central and western regions, with the help of strategies such as industrial westward migration, domestic circulation, and strong provincial capitals, are expected to continue to siphon the population of the province and drive the return of certain migrant workers, so as to continue to expand the population base.

Of course, it is important to grab people, but it is more important to keep people, and only those who can keep them really belong to themselves, such a large city with a population of 10 million can really have gold content.

Which cities are expected to be the first to qualify?

If you go back more than 10 years, population growth was commonplace in all cities, but now it's completely different.

Many cities have shouted slogans that the permanent population will exceed 10 million during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, but there is only one year until 2025, and few places will be able to successfully break through.

Judging from the average annual population growth in the past few years, who is most likely to be the first to cross the 10 million mark?

First, Hefei is one step ahead, fast this year, slow next year, is expected to exceed 10 million people.

From 2018 to 2023, Hefei's population will increase from 8.932 million to 9.85 million, a significant increase of more than 1 million people.

Hefei's population growth is partly due to the contribution of natural net population growth, and partly due to the return of population from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places.

Anhui, where Hefei is located, is regarded as the back garden of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, and Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou have been competing for the position of "Huijing".

However, with the gradual rise of Hefei's economic industry, this situation is being reversed, and the return of population is becoming the biggest support for Hefei to advance to the 10 million population club.

Second, Nanjing, Ningbo, and Foshan may take 3-5 years, or even longer.

The average annual population increase in these cities is less than 100,000, and there is still a distance of 30-500,000 people from the 10 million population mark, which will take at least 3-5 years.

Take Nanjing, for example. From 2018 to 2023, Nanjing's permanent population will increase from 9.24 million to 9.547 million, an increase of only 300,000, and according to this trend, it may take more than 5 years to cross the 10 million mark.

Third, when will the next city with a population of 10 million be born in the Northeast?

It's going to be a long time. Although the net outflow of population from Northeast China has eased, the total population has not yet recovered.

In 2023, the cross-provincial net inflow of population in Liaoning and Jilin will be 86,000 and 43,000 respectively, reversing the situation of continuous net outflow of population for more than 10 years.

However, as the natural population of the two places is still in negative growth, the total population has not turned positive, and the negative population growth trend is still the same.

As central cities, the overall population of Shenyang and Changchun has achieved positive growth, and both exceed 9 million people, which does not seem to be far from the 10 million mark.

However, the average annual population increase of Shenyang and Changchun is only a few tens of thousands, and in the face of a huge gap of 8 or 900,000 people, I am afraid it will take more than 10 years to break through.

In any case, the Northeast urgently needs a national central city and a strong growth pole to stabilize the economy and population.

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