▲The official website of the Office of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives released relevant reports
The latest news, the US CNN suddenly released a message confirming that Pelosi's Asian tour will visit Taiwan. And the official website of the US House speaker's office previously announced that Pelosi's Asian itinerary does not include Taiwan, does this mean that the US side has only taken a false shot before? Which statement should we believe?
- Pelosi's Asian tour continues to release smoke bombs
▲ SPAR19 photographed
Looking at Pelosi's current trajectory, it is clear that its Asian trajectory has been releasing smoke bombs. Since the evening of the 30th, hundreds of thousands of netizens around the world have "watched" a Boeing C-40C USAF business jet with the call sign SPAR19 on the flight information platform FlightRadar24, which is reported to be most likely the landline of the US House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi's Asian trip. Soon after, however, the plane disappeared at Hickam Air Force Base near Honolulu, Hawaii, believed to have required refueling due to range problems.
Shortly after spar19 arrived, an unmarked U.S. C-17 transport aircraft left Hawaii, and according to foreign media reports, Pelosi or the plane flew to Asia. This C-17 lost its tracking trajectory shortly after takeoff, of course, this does not mean that the aircraft had any accidents, basically it is certain that it shut down the transponder and took silent flight, which is a security measure used by the US military. After the C-17 took off, another C-5M transport aircraft of the US military also took off, also unnumbered.
Therefore, there is still no accurate information on which plane Pelosi took to Asia, and on the 31st, as many as 10 non-US military aircraft in Japan flew to the US military base in Okinawa, Japan, and the Japanese media speculated that this was likely to be related to Pelosi's Asian trip. Taking the two C-17 and C-5M that flew silently as an example, it is impossible to escape the tracking of our military's air defense system in China's coastal areas, and at this time, it coincides with the critical period of competition between the two sides, and for such two military aircraft that do not show any effective information, if they appear in China's relevant airspace, or have the intention of flying to Taiwan, it is very easy to cause misjudgment.
▲ SPAR19 is suspected to have arrived in Guam
At this time, the expulsion is a small matter, and there is a possibility of shooting down. Both the US military and Pelosi himself know this, but the reason why they are so bold in making such a move has two completely different interpretations, one is that Pelosi deliberately did it, that is, he wants to do big things, and he is sure that the Chinese side will not do anything to the US military aircraft, compared with taking a business jet to visit, the military plane is safer; Another possibility is the opposite, or to release "goodwill" and prevent miscalculation. But it has to be said that for such a set of confusing operations, Pelosi's Asian trip is even more confusing, and this mysterious operation, constantly releasing smoke bombs, can only make people suspect that this is preparing for a visit to Taiwan.
2. If you go against the grain, the president of the US Conference can do it
For this kind of speculation, it is really not empty, as early as twenty years ago, the American politician Gingrich once did this dirty business. As early as pelosi proposed to visit Taiwan, some media had pulled out Kinrich, because the last "successful" US House speaker was this Kimrich, and after Pelosi released the news of the visit for the second time, Kinrich claimed that "Pelosi should absolutely visit Taiwan now to let the Chinese side understand that the United States is not a paper tiger." In response, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry directly stated that "Gingrich has behaved badly on Taiwan-related issues," and this "badness" refers to the visit more than two decades ago.
▲ Kim Ritchie who put a lot of words
On March 27, 1997, the then speaker of the US House of Representatives, Gingrich, arrived in Beijing to begin his visit to China, and as the second speaker of the US House of Representatives to visit China since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, this visit was still received by senior Chinese leaders, and during the meeting, the Chinese side emphasized China's position on the Taiwan issue, pointing out that "I hope the United States will strictly abide by the three Sino-US joint communiques.", Gingrich did not shy away from this, saying that "the US side will be committed to the 'one China' policy."
However, it did not take long for the Speaker to tear off his hypocritical face. After the end of the visit to China, he traveled from Shanghai to Japan, and after a symbolic visit to Japan, he led the delegation to quickly visit Taiwan and held a Chinese mainland meeting with "Taiwan independence element" Lee Teng-hui.
Visiting China on the front foot, going to Japan on the back foot, and finally taking the opportunity to complete the visit to Taiwan, Kim Rich successfully interpreted what is called "brazen" and what is called "idyllic shamelessness". Of course, we must also realize that the political background of the visit at that time was completely different from that of pelosi's planned visit, and that Gingrich, then speaker of the US House of Representatives, because of his coveting of the presidential throne, led Republican lawmakers to constantly have friction and conflict with US President Clinton, who is a member of the Democratic Party.
▲ Biden and Pelosi's attitude toward China is basically the same
In contrast, Pelosi and Biden's attitudes are basically the same whether they are on China or on the "Taiwan issue", so once Pelosi realizes his visit to Taiwan, his impact is far worse than that of Gingrich. Looking back at Gingrich's visit more than twenty years ago, we can find that the American politician is far more cunning than imagined, and his performance is more dirty, and Pelosi has released so many smoke bombs during his trip to Asia, so although there is still no clear information to prove that he gave up his visit to Taiwan, it is still said that as long as the trip to Asia does not end, I will not return to the United States for a day, there will be a possibility of a visit.
3. The form of channeling may change
Judging from the itinerary announced by the Office of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, the first visit is Singapore, followed by a visit to Malaysia, and Japan and South Korea will be the last two stops of the trip, which is likely to be the "best" time node for Pelosi's visit. One of the important reasons why Pelosi continues to release information on visiting Taiwan is to cheer up the US allies in the Asian region, especially Japan and south Korea, so that these two countries have more confidence to exert pressure on China on the "Taiwan issue", and it is obviously the "best" time to visit on the eve of or between visits to Japan and South Korea.
▲The US aircraft carrier has been surrounded by the People's Liberation Army
However, compared with the previous meetings between US politicians visiting and meeting with the "Taiwan independence separatist forces" on the island, Pelosi may adopt another form of visitation -- sneaking away but not visiting. In this mode, Pelosi may take a landline plane to land in Taiwan for various reasons such as refueling or malfunction. As for Pelosi, who may not hold a meeting with anyone on the Taiwan side (of course, it does not rule out the possibility of a brief meeting on the landline), so as to achieve the so-called "sneaking away from visiting", in the view of the US side, this way can meet the political needs of support for Taiwan on the one hand, and at the same time will not anger the Chinese mainland, "the best of both worlds".
However, for the model, it can only be said that Pelosi is playing with fire, the United States is playing with fire, and it is playing with fire on the doorstep of China. In fact, no matter whether Pelosi visits or not, what model of visit is used, as long as relevant information is released, even if it is gossip, this is a blatant interference in China's sovereignty and internal affairs, and the significance is exactly the same. However, this model has put forward higher strategic and tactical requirements for our military, for example, if the Pelosi landline calls for an emergency landing in Taiwan on the grounds of malfunction, how will the PLA respond? First, it is clear that the airspace around Taiwan is a no-fly zone. At this time, as long as any unapproved aircraft enters the relevant airspace, the PLAAF immediately adopts means such as driving away and driving them out of the no-fly zone, so as to directly dispel the idea of visiting Taiwan.
▲ PLA military planes have stepped up their patrols in the airspace around Taiwan
Second, in the face of the demand for a forced landing, the PLA military plane quickly conducted an investigation. If the flight attitude is normal and the flight status can be maintained, it will be immediately required to leave the relevant airspace, and if it insists on landing, it will be regarded as a threat, and decisive measures will be taken to defend sovereignty. In this process, it is also possible to request or force orders to land at the Chinese mainland airport through accompanying flights, which not only satisfies the so-called forced landing requirements, but also greatly hits the arrogance of the US side, which can be called a direct "capture" of Pelosi, which is of far more significance than shooting down.
In recent years, the US military has repeatedly and again challenged China's bottom line on the "Taiwan issue," especially since the beginning of this year, relevant US politicians have visited Taiwan many times, which has greatly encouraged the arrogance of the "Taiwan independence separatist forces" on the island.