In the blink of an eye, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered its 106th day.
In the past 3 months or so, we have witnessed too many "unexpected": I did not expect that Zelenskiy would "beg" to the West with a straight face, did not expect that the "ruble settlement order" revitalized the Russian economy, did not expect that "bulk Europe" was more loose than imagined, did not expect that the United States would sanction Russian cats...
On June 9, three more unexpected things happened.
The first "did not expect", Saudi Arabia refused to "choose the side", the United States "backstabbed" Europe.
Last Thursday, OPEC+ held a video conference in which Saudi Arabia and other oil producers finally agreed to increase production by 650,000 bpd starting in July. Behind this is months of pressure from the Biden administration, as soaring U.S. oil prices have severely weakened Democratic support.
However, Russia, which is also an OPEC member, is expected to cut production by 3 million barrels per day in the second half of this year, which means that the "increase in production" in Saudi Arabia and other countries is completely insufficient to fill the gap, and THE US oil price will rise.
Of course, Saudi Arabia did not "fall into the well" after all, and when Saudi Aramco decided to raise oil prices for Asian, Nordic and Mediterranean countries, it specifically emphasized that the price of oil in the United States remained unchanged.
However, this is good news for Moscow, because it gives Russian oil a more price advantage in Asia and can get more orders. However, in the view of the United States, Russia, whose income has not decreased but has increased, is bound to persist longer in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Therefore, the United States came up with a way that was not a solution, that is, to continue to let Russian oil enter the international market, the only premise was to limit the price of Russian oil, so as not to make a big profit in the rise in oil prices.
But everyone with a discerning eye knows that this is just an excuse for the United States to buy Russian oil at a low price, and the purpose is to adjust domestic oil prices. At the same time, the United States may hold the idea of "buying low and selling high", and eventually let european allies pay the bill, and itself is making a lot of "war money" behind the scenes.
The second "unexpected", after Iran "retaliated" to seize the Greek cruise ship, the Greek court softened.
On June 8, a court in Greece overturned a previous ruling that allowed the transfer of oil from a seized tanker to the United States.
The tanker, the Pergas, was seized by Greece in april at the Aegean Sea when it flew the Russian flag and carried 115,000 tons of Iranian oil and 19 Russian crew members.
As for the reasons for the seizure, the Greek side did not explicitly indicate, perhaps because the tanker was carrying Iranian oil or because the tanker belonged to Russia. But whatever the reason, it is related to the US sanctions.
After the incident, Iran denounced Greece's behavior as "piracy" and in May seized two Greek oil tankers, which were carrying 2 Greek citizens, which were also accused by Greece of "piracy" afterwards.
But now, the Greek side seems to be planning to "surrender" to Iran, although the overturning of the ruling may be prevented by the Greek government and the United States, but the occurrence of this matter has revealed an unusual meaning.
Because on the same day, the IAEA Board of Governors opened in Vienna, and some member states, led by the United States, Britain, France and Germany, pushed for the adoption of a Board of Governors resolution demanding that Iran take immediate action to comply with the so-called "instructions".
As Iran has said, this resolution is actually a political, incorrect and unconstructive resolution, rooted in the attempts of the United States and the West to pressure Iran to make concessions in the Iranian nuclear negotiations.
In this context, this Court of Greece has actually "crookedly" undermined the isolation of the United States and the West from Iran, which is probably something that the Biden administration did not expect, right?
More crucially, in the international event of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Iran has also made a rare "limelight". Iranian President Lehi said in a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the same day that Iran is willing to do its best to help resolve the war.
Obviously, whether it is the Iranian nuclear negotiations or the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the tightening of the United States and the West on Iran will only push Russia and Iran closer cooperation.
The third "unexpected" was that the natural gas port in the United States exploded.
At 11:40 a.m. on June 8, an explosion occurred at a natural gas export port in Texas, Usa, belonging to Freeport Gas, the largest U.S. gas exporter.
The port is one of the seven largest LNG export ports in the United States, receiving a total of about 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas and supplying 75 percent of LNG to Europe from January to April alone.
It is no exaggeration to say that once this gas port is shut down, half of Europe will be "shaken". Sure enough, U.K. gas futures soared 33 percent as the port needed to close for at least three weeks due to fires, causing European gas prices to rise in response.
In contrast, since the natural gas produced in the United States cannot be exported, its domestic prices naturally fall all the way, and the price of natural gas futures for delivery in July fell by 6.4% in one day, suspending the price of natural gas in the United States, which once hit a new 13-year high.
For the United States, it may be just a matter of making less money and making some money later, but for Europe, it is a top priority for its economy and energy security.
Every European country is wondering: Is it really credible to pin energy security on the United States?
In contrast, natural gas transported by pipeline is not only cheaper, but also safer. Liquefied natural gas shipped from the United States has certain risks when it is "loaded" in American ports, and there are also risks when "unloading" in European ports.
Coupled with the high freight rates of LNG ships transporting liquefied natural gas, Europeans have obviously paid more money, but they have not been able to get more "security".
Is it because natural gas in the United States has a "democracy" bonus, so more energy is released after combustion?
In short, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has further intensified the "great changes that have not occurred in a hundred years", and after a good drama has been staged in turn, it has also allowed the international community to see the essence of the national game, and I believe that more and more countries will stand on the right side of history and contribute to the realization of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations and an early ceasefire.