On the first day of the post-holiday opening (May 5), the automobile sector rose, according to the Shenwan industry classification, the automobile sector rose by 2.33% on the day, and many individual stocks in the sector rose and stopped.
Under the historic opportunity of the "double carbon target", new energy vehicles have become the main direction of global automobile transformation and development, and electrification and intelligence have brought new opportunities for the mainland automobile industry to "change lanes and overtake", and become a "new track" for industrial restructuring and transformation and upgrading.
As the focus of the automotive sector, new energy vehicles, especially in the case of the recent release of April sales data by a number of car companies, are quite concerned by the market.
The author's excellent colleague Mao Ting's article during the holiday "Outperforming the new forces, BYD's valuation logic has changed?" " wrote that BYD recently announced the production and sales situation, whether it is a single month's sales or the cumulative sales in the first four months, all of which beat Xiaopeng, Weilai and Ideal. See the following table data comparison, BYD's sales in April have exceeded 100,000, while Xiaopeng, Weilai and Ideal have not sold more than 10,000 in the month.
In addition to the latest sales data of the above-mentioned new energy vehicle companies, Xiaokang Shares, which is famous for its Xilis brand, also recently announced its production and sales in April.
According to the April 2022 production and sales express report released by Xiaokang Shares, the company's new energy vehicle production in that month was 7738 units, an increase of 182.20% year-on-year; sales were 8552 units, an increase of 187.56% year-on-year. In the first four months of this year, the company's new energy vehicle production and sales were 25129 and 22752 units, an increase of 252.74% and 199.64% respectively.
Among them, Xiaokang's high-end intelligent new energy vehicle - Xilisi sold 3439 units in April, a sharp increase of 1248.63% year-on-year, and an increase of 8.83% from March. In the first four months of this year, the sales volume of Xilix reached 8483 vehicles, an increase of 1211.13%, showing a strong growth momentum.
It is understood that the "Q&I M5", which was jointly built by Xiaokang Co., Ltd. and industry-leading ICT companies across borders, has entered the centralized delivery period since March this year, with sales of 3,045 vehicles in the same month, entering the top ten of high-end new energy SUVs of 200,000-300,000 yuan in one fell swoop. The car is not only equipped with the Cialis pure electric drive extended range platform (DE-i), which can achieve 1100+ kilometers of endurance and 4 seconds of 100 kilometers of acceleration, but also has a new Harmony OS intelligent cockpit, creating a new mobile travel driving experience with "people" as the core.
According to the company's description, Xiaokang Co., Ltd. is a technology-based manufacturing enterprise with new energy vehicles as its core business, and has a perfect research and development, supply, manufacturing and sales system.
In terms of vehicles, the company's main product lineage includes SUVs, MPVs, micro commercial vehicles, etc., covering new energy vehicles and traditional models, and the main representative models include The M5, Cyrus SF5, Fengguang MINIEV, Fengguang 580, Dongfeng Xiaokang K01 and Ruichi EC35II.
In addition to the above latest sales data, Xiaokang also announced the performance of the 2021 annual report and the first quarter of 2022, which is summarized by the author as follows:
In 2021, the operating income was 16.718 billion yuan, an increase of 16.89% year-on-year, and the revenue in the first quarter of this year was 5.131 billion yuan, an increase of 56.03% year-on-year.
But if you look at deducting non-net profits, the data is not as good as revenue (see chart below). The data shows that from 2018 to 2021, the company has expanded the loss of deducting non-net profit for 4 consecutive years.
However, if you look at the sales data of new energy vehicles released by the company, there is indeed a certain bright performance. The company said in its 2021 annual report that it sold 266,600 vehicles in 2021, down 2.55% year-on-year, of which 41,400 new energy vehicles were sold, an increase of 104.39% year-on-year.
Specifically, according to last year's annual report, the sales volume and revenue scale of new energy vehicles showed a multiple growth: the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by about 104.4% year-on-year; the revenue increased by 128.8% year-on-year. The sales volume and revenue of the company's new energy vehicles accounted for 15.5% and 26.9% of the company's vehicle sales and main business revenue, respectively, continuing to maintain a growth trend, doubling over the same period last year, and the company is gradually transforming into a technology manufacturing enterprise with new energy vehicles as the core business.
If combined with the recently released sales data of new energy vehicles in April, the growth momentum is even stronger (see above).
Xiaokang shares and a head of technology companies have a lot of news, the author does not describe here, this article only from the fundamental situation analysis. If you look at sales, there is indeed a certain growth. However, from the performance point of view, when to turn losses into profits, or even take a step back, when to alleviate the situation of expanding losses is a problem that enterprises urgently need to think about.
Let's compare the same industry, take the first quarter of this year, from the perspective of revenue, there is still a certain gap between Xiaokang shares and the head enterprises in the automotive industry, see the following table.
From the table, we can see that the situation of the leading enterprises in the industry:
1. Revenue angle
Saic Motor Group, whose revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan, is not to mention, there are as many as 4 companies whose revenue has exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the revenue of Xiaokang shares in the first quarter is only double digits (5.1 billion yuan), which is a bit larger than the revenue level of the former GAC Group of 23.2 billion yuan.
2. Net profit angle
If you look at the net profit, in the first quarter of this year, the profit performance of car companies was uneven. In the above table, the net profit of Xiaokang shares ranked second to last, only better than Beiqi Blue Valley.
In the case of "uneven heat and cold" in the first quarter and the complex and changeable environment, what may happen to the new energy vehicle industry in the second quarter?
The problem of rising raw material prices is a threshold that car companies cannot pass.
Since the middle of March this year, a number of car companies have announced price increases for new energy models, including Xiaopeng, Geometry, Zero Run, WM, Great Wall Euler, GAC and other car companies have successively issued price increase notices, with an increase of up to 32,600 yuan.
Incomplete statistics, since this year, more than 50 models of more than 20 car companies have increased prices, and the reason for the price increase is the increase in the price of raw materials for power batteries. The price of lithium carbonate, which is the raw material for power batteries, rose more than 7 times last year, and rose by more than 80% in the first quarter of this year. Affected by this, in the first quarter of this year, the general net profit of A-share listed power battery companies fell by 20%-30%, and the leading Ningde times announced the financial report before the holiday to increase revenue and not increase profits, so that the market was full of pessimism about the post-holiday market. On the first day after the Ningde Times Festival (May 5), the day opened low, the daily K line closed a false Yang line, and the full day closed down at 8.15%, and did not make up for the gap that opened low by the close.
After the cost pressure of the power battery company, it began to transmit pressure to the car company, and the car company also began to transmit cost pressure to the consumer side, and how long the consumer side can carry it, this matter is still unknown. In the context of an increasingly complex environment, the situation in the second quarter is really difficult to say.
Guohai Securities analysis said that high-quality new energy vehicle brands can effectively digest the short-term negative impact of price increases on sales. The rising price tide will be a reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, and the market share will be further concentrated on high-quality brands. At the same time, the price increase of new energy vehicles often affects the short-term decision-making of consumers, in the medium and long term, the price point in the hearts of consumers is expected to change with the overall market price environment changes, and the development momentum of new energy vehicles remains strong.
According to the analysis of Guojin Securities, in May, the supply chain blockage and suspension of production caused by the special environment are expected to gradually recover. Due to the stock order and price increase timing factors, sales in May and June will gradually reflect the real demand after the rise of raw materials, and once the data exceeds expectations, the new energy vehicle sector will have the opportunity to rebound.
Author: Xu Yuanyao