On April 28th, the theme of "CITIC Lecture Hall • China Road Lecture Series" was held
Why is "without oil, tank cannons are better than dog sticks"? Why did Deng Xiaoping lament, "I know modernization?"
Goethe once said, "There is nothing worth thinking about that has not been thought about; all we have to do is try to rethink it." Just as the ups and downs of the economic development history of New China for more than 70 years, in the face of the difficult moments of "high wind and waves", we can always condense the wisdom of our predecessors in the historical combing and find the internal logic of the way to crack it.
On April 28th, the "CITIC Lecture Hall • China Road Lecture Series" invited Wu Wu, a researcher and doctoral supervisor of the Institute of Contemporary China Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, to review the three historical periods of China's economic development with the theme of "The History and Logic of China's Economic Development". What shortcomings need to be vigilant? How can valuable lessons from development be better drawn?
Researcher of the Institute of Contemporary China Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, doctoral supervisor Wu Wu was a guest of citic lecture hall
The first stage: to break through the "trap of poverty" and give priority to the development of heavy industry
When we engage in a socialist market economy today and the common development of various economic sectors, is that wrong with the transformation of planned economics and socialism in the 1950s? The sharing of force begins with responding to the problem, and also leads the listener to two thorny issues in the first stage of the economic development of the new China.
In 1949, China's main industrial product output was compared with that of the United States and India
At the beginning of the founding of New China, about 87% of China's population was in the countryside, relying on manpower and animal power to rely on the sky to eat, which determined that China at that time was an economically backward agricultural country. Madison, a well-known economic historian, estimated in the Millennium History of the World Economy that China's economic growth rate between 1913 and 1950 was -0.02%, and it did not advance or retreat. The average global economic growth rate over the same period was 1.85%. Not only is China's level of industrialization extremely low, but it also faces a total blockade of the mainland by different ideological camps led by the United States. Under these conditions, we also face two pressing problems.
First, there is the issue of national security. When the Korean War broke out in June 1950, the U.S. Seventh Fleet entered Taiwan and threatened the reunification of the mainland. Although the battle for the founding of the country was won, in the face of the enemy's advanced equipment and blockade hostility, China's leaders realized that without industrialization, there was no way to build a strong national defense, and it would always be in the possibility of being invaded again, and the defense industry first needed heavy industry. In November 1950, Marshal Zhu De said during a visit to the Petroleum Industry Exhibition: "Without oil, tanks and cannons are better than dog sticks." You can also beat dogs when you hold a dog stick, and tanks and cannons don't move without oil. "The urgency stems from the weakness of the mainland's heavy industry, because the agricultural foundation is thin, and there is no machinery manufacturing industry as a support, even the supply of raw materials has become a big problem, and the traditional industrialization from agriculture to light industry to heavy industry is not feasible."
Prioritizing the development of heavy industry requires a large amount of long-term capital investment, and where does the money come from? From the perspective of the theory of development economics, the reason why many developing countries have difficulty in industrialization after the war stems from this "poverty trap".
In 1956, Chairman Mao inspected the Shenxin Ninth Factory and exchanged views with Rong Yiren
The second is the issue of food and clothing. If the economy is backward, there is no surplus, and there is no money for industrialization. Mao Zedong pointed out: "If we can raise some money from the people's savings to invest in industry, but we do not do this, and everyone spends it on consumption, then we cannot create a happy life for the people." Therefore, in 1952, we proposed the "general line of the transitional period", which was matched by a single public ownership system and a planned economy, and under the guarantee of this socialist economic system, it became possible to concentrate capital to give priority to the development of heavy industry and ensure the people's livelihood and social stability.
After 30 years of such development, by 1978 the mainland had basically solved two pressing problems. Based on heavy industry, the mainland's defense industry has developed "two bombs and one satellite" and nuclear submarines, and has concentrated on raising funds to establish an independent and complete industrial system, introducing force without relying on foreign aid funds, which has almost no precedent in other developing countries.
Stage of reform and opening up: Open up a socialist market economy that seeks truth from facts
Entering the second stage, running into socialism still exposes some problems, such as inaccurate and lagging plans, as well as the generally backward level of productivity and the extreme imbalance and incompatibility of development between urban and rural areas, regions and industries. The high-accumulation policy has been implemented for 30 years, but there has been little major improvement in the people's lives. Thus, force presents a major test of the second phase.
From 1957 to 1976, the national workers did not increase their wages for 20 years, and in 1957, the average monetary wage of the national workers was 624 yuan, and in 1976 it fell to 575 yuan and 49 yuan less. In Shanghai, for example, of the 1.8 million households at that time, 900,000 households with housing difficulties reached 900,000, of which nearly 270,000 lived in houses with an average of less than 2 square meters per capita. In the countryside, the problem of agricultural backwardness has not only not been solved, but the problem of eating has become more urgent due to the increase in population. "Production depends on loans, livelihood depends on relief, and grain is sold back" is the true portrayal of the people's commune at that time. Wu Li pointed out: "If even the problem of food and clothing for the people cannot be solved, and the legitimacy and rationality of the ruling party of the Communist Party of China, the superiority of our socialist system cannot be discussed."
In 1978, Hu Fuming, a teacher of the Department of Philosophy of Nanjing University, wrote "Practice is the Only Criterion for Testing Truth" as the main author, which set off a great discussion on the standard of truth throughout the country
When poor is thinking of change, Deng Xiaoping made the important thesis that "poverty is not socialism." Thus, in the great discussion of truth and practice, "What is socialism?" How to build socialism? "It has been fully unfolded and the ideological shackles have been untied, which has become the internal cause of reform and opening up."
China's GDP accounted for 1.8% of the world economy in 1978, even lower than in 1952. China is developing, the world is also developing, and the gap has not narrowed but has widened. To recognize this gap, China urgently needs to "open its eyes to the world", and this has become an external cause of reform and opening up. When Deng Xiaoping visited the Nissan Automobile Company's factory in Japan, he saw the world's most advanced robot production line and learned that Nissan's per capita annual automobile production capacity was 94 vehicles, which was 93 more than China's most advanced Changchun First Automobile Factory. In his impromptu speech after the visit, Deng Xiaoping said: "I have learned what modernization is. ”
On December 11, 2001, China officially joined the WTO, becoming its 143rd member
The combination of the pressure brought about by the gap and the people's eagerness to change the poor life has released a huge impetus for reform and opening up. Centering on the two weak points of rural areas and the lack of foreign capital, we should introduce a market regulation mechanism for "delegating power and letting go of profits" at home, actively introduce foreign capital and technology into the establishment of special economic zones abroad, encourage the coexistence and development of various economic sectors, form a socialist market economic system with "one center and two basic points" under the strong leadership of the party Central Committee, make full use of the "two hands" of the government and the market, arouse the enthusiasm of the central and local governments, join the WTO, and expand opening up to the outside world. Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, from 1978 to 2012, China's total economic volume has jumped from the world's eleventh to the second, and the rapid economic development can be called a world miracle.
The conspicuous contradictions of the second stage were thus broken through in arduous practice.
In the current new era: to achieve industrial structure upgrading, the market and the government need to play together
From the first two stages of history and entering the current "new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics", what kind of challenges will we face? The main contradictions in society have changed, economic development has entered the "three-phase superposition", and is in the midst of major changes unprecedented in a century. Building a modern economic system has become an urgent requirement to cross this threshold and a strategic goal for economic development, and the development of China's economy is also affecting the world pattern. Force points out three outstanding problems from the consistency of historical logic.
The side of Japanese toilet lids, Korean cosmetics, and Australian milk powder purchasing is the people's demand for high-end products
First, the issue of development. Since industrialization, the expansion of low-end industries established by the mainland relying on the advantages of intensive labor force and the extensive model of fighting for resources and energy consumption has been difficult to lead economic development and meet the people's demand for high-end products. Wu Pointed out that "many people go to Japan to buy toilets, and south Korea to buy cosmetics is a typical example", which is the reason for the high-quality development promoted by supply-side structural reform.
Secondly, the issue of international pressure. In the process of climbing from the traditional low-end industrial chain to the high-end, it will inevitably compete with developed countries, and trade frictions will expand to many fields such as science and technology, diplomacy and so on. Chinese enterprises should go out and insist on expanding opening up, and the "Belt and Road" is the mainland's active strategy and will play a role in a long period of time.
Third, the issue of common prosperity, the average income of Chinese has reached 10,000 US dollars, which has broken through the "middle-income trap", but the market mechanism will not automatically achieve common prosperity, and a series of reforms in Xi Jinping's economic thought of "strengthening the party's overall leadership and people-centered thinking" are all for the government to play a role in the market, and the future is also an important direction for the development and reform of the mainland.
Industrial restructuring, workers need to learn technology, a large number of workers face new training
Summing up more than 70 years of development experience, Wu Pointed out that under the condition of lack of per capita resources, China must optimize and upgrade its industrial structure. To achieve the second centenary goal of building a modern power, there are still huge challenges in many areas.
The first is the risk of capital sinking. Traditional enterprises eliminate backward production capacity, but technological transformation requires new investment, enterprises are often unwilling to bear this part of the cost, the problem is delayed, the market will use the coercive means of economic crisis to sink capital.
Second, traditional workers must change jobs and transform. The emergence of new technologies means that a large number of formerly skilled workers are no longer needed, but highly skilled personnel are needed. Workers learn new technologies at a training cost, and they can't keep up with the ease of being eliminated.
Third, the issue of state finances. The elimination of old production capacity, the formation of new industries, the economic downturn will reduce the national fiscal revenue, and the corresponding public service guarantee will encounter pressure.
Finally, there is the question of social stability. The adjustment of industrial structure is accompanied by the change of people's way of life and thinking, which aggravates the differentiation of social classes, which leads to social instability.
In addition, the challenges to the external environment of the mainland economy formed by US hegemony cannot be ignored.
In the face of these problems, markets are often "dysfunctional", and these huge costs across the board require a strong, effective government and market coordination that can only be absorbed after the necessary time has elapsed.
The unification of the national market is the general trend of globalization, and it is necessary to open up blockages to solve the problem that the domestic market is large but not strong
On April 10, the "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified National Large Market" was officially issued, with the intention of opening up the key blockages restricting the economic cycle and comprehensively promoting the development of the mainland market from large to strong and high standards; on April 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee conducted the 38th collective study on guiding the healthy development of mainland capital in accordance with laws and regulations, pointing out that it is necessary to give play to its positive role as an important factor of production. Two vivid examples once again show that the party's comprehensive leadership and the spirit of self-revolution have crossed all difficulties and bumps throughout, and the strong and effective government and organizational mobilization capabilities have shown institutional advantages.
Looking forward to force, what do we have in the face of challenges? The "two-wheel drive" of the government and the market has avoided double failure; the large scale of the economy, the large market has brought a large roundabout of innovation; the large population has brought high labor participation rate and the quality of the population that attaches importance to learning and education, so that in the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics that began in 2012, China has moved from "getting rich" to "getting strong". At the beginning of the second century, the experience and lessons of the new Chinese economy of more than 70 years will continue to be a major driving force on the way forward.
Author: Mao Ying
Photo: Live screenshots, network
Editor: Li Nian