Author 丨 Sakuragi
Edit 丨Moji
The market for bottled drinks was smashed by a message from Nesher.
According to reliable sources, Nesher's tea will invest 500-1 billion yuan to acquire ready-to-drink beverage production lines, requiring a production capacity of 70 million to 80 million boxes per year, and the production line is expected to be 8-12.
In response to this news, Naixue's tea responded: "The company is indeed vigorously developing the bottled beverage business, and in 2021, It has established Naixue Beverage Technology Company, and has launched 7 bottled tea products to the market." For the investment matters of the network transmission, it is not convenient to disclose at present. ”
Naixue as the only new tea beverage listed enterprise so far, its every move involves the attention of many parties, from the stock price point of view, since the listing, Naixue's tea has been continuously slashed, from the highest 18 yuan to 4 yuan, for the once will become a new consumer leading brand of Naixue, is undoubtedly a heavy blow.
At the same time, The business model of Nesher, which is mainly based on offline direct stores, has shown a relatively fragile response ability under the epidemic, and now it has increased the layout of bottled drinks and opened up a new front in a market that is not affected by the epidemic, to some extent, it is a hedge against the existing business model.
On the other hand, Nesher's move to enter the bottled water market seems to be the consensus of the entire industry. Last month, according to the official website of the State Intellectual Property Office, the appearance patent of "bottle sticker (Baqi series)" applied for by Michelle Ice City Co., Ltd. has been authorized. Judging from the patent picture display, the series contains two flavors of "peach oolong" and "grapefruit jasmine", and the bottle sticker contains the words "0 fat is not afraid of fat", which also indicates that Mixue Ice City, which operates more than 20,000 stores, is also entering the bottled beverage market. At the same time, As a new tea brand that entered the bottled beverage track earlier, Heytea has opened its layout 2 years ago.
New tea and bottled drinks are almost completely different tracks, in the bottled drinks track that emphasizes channels, in addition to the need to make a large investment in the number of freezers, ground pushing capabilities and other hard aspects, in terms of capital strength, research and development capabilities, brand strategy and other aspects of the entry players have higher requirements.
On the other hand of the capital story, the success of yuanqi forest is like a temptation to give new tea drinks who urgently need to find a second growth curve see a glimmer of hope.
For new players, is it defensive or offensive to break into a bottled drink? Is it to get out of trouble, or to be trapped in another Red Sea?
New tea drinkers, no choice?
"Our breakfast here is divided into three flavors, egg purple cabbage, egg ham, egg meat floss, with our family a latte only need 10 yuan can be." The clerk of Michelle Ice City introduced it kindly. This is the latest 10 yuan breakfast series launched by Michelle Ice City, and 100 copies sold out early on the first day of launch.
Entering 2022, the biggest marketing action of Michelle Ice City makes people look very "unprofessional". In addition to the 10 yuan breakfast, Michelle Ice City has also launched a new experience store, fried skewers, cakes, braised noodles, and one snack after another seems to be causing people to ask questions: Why does Honey Snow Ice City not work drinks? Is the market saturated or the lack of innovation? A veteran industry observer raised such questions. At the same time, in addition to the increase of multiple categories, Michelle Ice City has been testing the waters in the fields of convenience stores and craft beer since last year.
If it is said that increasing categories or even cross-borders is not the body of anxiety, then the price reduction, to some extent, has written the anxiety of The Honey Snow Ice City on the face.
In February 2022, Mi xue ice city's ice cream brand Ji Lattu announced on the public account that its full line of brands began to reduce prices, and the ice cream dropped from the original 26 yuan double ball to 6 yuan single ball. "The Polarato ice cream brand is an experiment for Michelle Ice City to enter the middle and high-end, but now from the results, it is still back to the sinking market that it is familiar with." An industry observer told "new entropy".
On the other hand, Nai Xue, who preaches "a good sip of tea, a soft European bag", has not had a good life recently.
"Let's look at the mall on Saturday night, there's pretty little one." In the live broadcast room of a 200,000 Douyin blogger, the original lively shopping mall is now extremely empty, and as the tea of Nai Xue drained on the first floor, the blogger camera scans the past, and the door is a sparrow.
Taking a second-tier city as an example, Nesher's storefront relies on shopping malls to establish, from the current "new entropy" field investigation, in addition to takeaway can maintain a certain number, store traffic almost fell to the bottom. The original soft European bag brand, at this time, is more like a burden, and few people ask about it.
"The flow of people has dropped by 80%, and there are still 20%, do not lie flat, try to grab, grab a little more to live for one more day, live to the last death, it is also glorious." A local tea brand operator pointed to the screen and said. Playing chicken blood on employees at internal meetings is now the most common content of his speech, and the picture of his finger is the commercial street that once exploded.
The cold spring is steep, and the sudden lack of offline traffic makes the new tea brands that have already experienced layoffs and price reductions in 2021 feel that the cold winter is not over.
In the face of uncertainty, how to get rid of the original business logic and make the coverage of products wider has become something that new tea drinkers have to think about.
"It is a very simple logic, even under the epidemic, convenience stores are the most recent touch points that the people just need, as long as they can enter this space, to some extent, they can reduce the impact of the epidemic cycle." A senior food and beverage researcher revealed to "New Entropy".
On the other hand, from the perspective of the capital market, whether it is Nongfu Mountain Spring, or Dongpeng Special Drink and Plum Garden, although the stock price fluctuations of its listed companies have been affected by the epidemic, the general drawdown is limited, which is significantly ahead of Nai Xue's tea.
The motivation for the new tea to enter the bottled market is still inconclusive, but from the perspective of the market environment and financial environment, it seems to be a conservative choice. At the same time, in the front, whether it is the Yuanqi Forest that has become a giant, or the Xicha that has squeezed into the top three sales of Jingdong Drinks, it is a temptation for new tea drinks.
The lure of the Genki Forest
If you pick up a bottle of new tea now, and look closely, who will come to mind at the first time?
Taking Xicha as an example, on the back of the package, a similar content to the Yuanqi Forest is used, and the explanation of vitamins and niacin, and the description of erythritol, are almost all pixel-level imitations. The reason for this, in addition to the latecomer advantage, is actually more like an active cake cutting behavior.
At the beginning of 2022, after Coca-Cola released the slogan of "this year's dry yuanqi forest", the public suddenly realized that the original yuanqi forest had already entered the hinterland of bottled drinks. In terms of categories, sparkling water and Coca-Cola have similarities, and Coca-Cola and Pepsi are worried that if Yuanqi Forest continues to promote the unhealthy of sugary drinks (including Coke), coupled with parental control over children's Coke, Coke is likely to lose memory in the next generation of children and be replaced by a generation that drinks sparkling water.
The occupation of the mind, for consumer goods, is almost a core competitiveness. One of the most classic expressions comes from the famous fund manager Zhang Kun said in an interview in 2020: Baijiu, a brand to occupy everyone's mind, may take decades. Everyone knows That Moutai costs 50 yuan a bottle of wine at a factory price of 969 yuan. Make money? earn. Envious? envy. Are you going to copy it and try it? Like Buffett said, you give me $100 billion, I may not know how to fight Coca-Cola, but I know how to fight with American Steel, how to fight with these companies that rely on assets. Be sure to make others feel that he doesn't know how to fight with you with money, and this company is strong enough.
Now, Buffett does not know how to deal with Coca-Cola, but because of the Yuanqi Forest, he shows fear. It has to be said that the success of Yuanqi Forest in the brand is groundbreaking. From another point of view, the imitation of the new tea drink for the Yuanqi Forest can also be interpreted as an extension of this logic. And if envying yuanqi forest's success today is the driving force, then helping yuanqi forest consolidate a market that can subvert Coca-Cola is an irresistible temptation for new tea drinks.
So, is there a threshold for imitating the Yuanqi Forest?
The answer to this question can be disassembled from the recent movement of Yuanqi Forest on the market. In an interview last year, Tang Binsen said that Yuanqi Forest should change its course and take the route of traditional consumer goods.
Since Zong Qinghou began to sell on a tricycle, in fact, the road taken by Bottled Beverages in China has not changed much, and it basically revolves around the construction of factories, channels and supply chains. For Yuanqi Forest, the visible data comes from the changes in its offline terminals. As of the first quarter of 2021, the number of offline terminals (including stores, freezers, shelves, etc.) exceeded 1 million, and Li Guoxun, vice president of Yuanqi Forest, said that the construction of the offline channel system has been initially completed, but compared with the number of terminals of other traditional consumer enterprises in China, Yuanqi Forest is still not a small gap. In the case of Coca-Cola, for example, the number of offline freezers and vending machines reached 1.3 million in 2019.
From the perspective of product taste, the new tea seems to be replicating the path of successful products in the store, and if it only translates the research and development ideas of the original products to the bottled market, will it offset the original participation scene of consumers from another angle. Especially in the face of the sinking market, the original research and development ideas of new tea drinks are obviously not suitable.
The imitation of the Yuanqi Forest is undoubtedly a process of "light" to "heavy", and the recent news of Nai Xue's acquisition of the production line undoubtedly verifies this speculation.
However, if on the way to becoming a Yuanqi forest, the new tea drink has no advantages at all, it is obviously not in line with the actual situation. Just a large number of offline stores, has already occupied a good first-mover advantage, at the same time, the new tea in the product creativity, brand marketing, there are also direct replication experience, on the other hand, for the supply chain, the new tea brand can not be said to be a blank, whether it is directly operated as the main Nai xue, Xi tea, or join the main Honey Snow Ice City, its huge, complex supply chain, and rich management experience is not a small wealth.
The battle for new tea drinks, in the bets of Nesher's real money, has quietly begun. Unlike in the past, this time they burned the flames of war to a more mature bottle market, and as a combatant, whether it is Yuanqi Forest, Nongfu Spring, or Wahaha, Coca-Cola does not seem to regard it as a real opponent, perhaps, it is in this case, but there is a chance to highlight the siege.