Author: Liu Yadan, Editor: Gao Yulei, head image from: Visual China
In 2022, the news that Yuanqi Forest pressed goods in the national sales channels and distributors channeled goods with each other has been circulating in the beverage industry, making the company's actual performance full of doubts, and its "full of vitality" state has passed.
From 2018 to 2020, the sales growth rate of Yuanqi Forest was 300%, 200% and 309% respectively, but in the first quarter of 2022, the revenue growth rate of Yuanqi Forest has fallen back to 50%.
On the other hand, the encirclement and suppression from Coca-Cola and Pepsi has not stopped. Some market participants told the power plant that in 2022, Liangle will continue to control the upstream supply chain of Yuanqi Forest, even including cutting off the supply of bottle cap suppliers.
"Yuanqi Forest products twice displayed our products with 4 rows of noodles (2 bottles/products of AHHA series on one side; sugar-free series on the other side), and a reward of 10 yuan", a planning material from Coca-Cola's internal "Mengzhan Yuanqi" shows that the competition has reached the sales terminal.
Sales did not reach 7.3 billion yuan, offline channeling, pressure goods
In April, the technology media delayed the report that the sales of Yuanqi Forest in 2021 should be recovered to 7.3 billion yuan, which reduced the market's doubts about Yuanqi Forest.
However, the power plant reporter learned from inside the Yuanqi Forest that it did not actually reach 7.3 billion yuan. Last year, upstream suppliers cut off supply to Yuanqi Forest, resulting in a direct loss of nearly 1 billion yuan in sales of Yuanqi Forest. "If there is no supply cut, this data should be reachable." Yuanqi Forest insiders revealed.
Beverage industry insiders who are more familiar with the offline market have become the first group of people not to be optimistic about the Yuanqi Forest.
"Market maintenance can not keep up, now basically the goods are poured outward, specially poured customers have yuanqi products every day, it seems that the terminal digestion is not very good." A front-line mid-level manager in the beverage industry told the power plant. The so-called "dumping" is to channel goods, that is, too many goods in one area cannot be sold, and dealers will sell goods to another area, and the market price of products will become chaotic.
"There were too many pressures last year," another beverage industry executive confirmed to the power plant that Yuanqi Forest's sales last year. Yuanqi Forest Shenzhen regional distributor told the power plant that because of the fierce competition in the southern beverages, Yuanqi Forest is not doing well in the region, and the pressure is very large.
As early as 2021, Xiao Zhuqing, former planning director of Wahaha, predicted that the performance goal of Yuanqi Forest was set high, "Professional managers will oversupply and the price will fall in order to keep their jobs and pressure on the channel, and when the channel partners sell Yuanqi Forest and do not make money, that is, when Yuanqi Forest withdraws from the beverage jianghu."
This year, this forecast has been partially realized, first reflected in the price. First-line market sources told the power plant that the Yuanqi Forest sparkling water in some terminal supermarkets has been sold to 3 yuan a bottle at a reduced price. Yuanqi Forest, on the other hand, raised the price of its sparkling water series in April, with a price increase of 4 yuan per piece, which will directly threaten the interests of dealers.
According to official data, the speed reduction of the Yuanqi Forest is already an indisputable fact.
On April 15, Li Guoxun, vice president of Yuanqi Forest, revealed that yuanqi forest's revenue growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 was only 50%, which was far from the previous doubling situation.
Tang Binsen also said in an interview at the end of 2021 that in 2022, Yuanqi Forest will return to a traditional company, "in the next three years to ensure 50%-60% annualized growth can be enough - I do not require two or three times every year." ”
Since last year, Yuanqisen has begun to experience a large number of personnel losses. "The basic salary has dropped from five or six thousand to two or three thousand, and social security has also been paid according to the minimum grade, resulting in a high employee turnover rate," revealed the middle level of the beverage industry, which is also one of the reasons why the maintenance of front-line products is not in place. The power plant reporter also learned from the Yuanqi Forest salesman that the sales reward of its front-line salesman is declining, and the year-end bonus is also much lower than in previous years.
Coca-Cola did not stop
Last year, the manufacturer of erythritol, Sanyuan Bio, suddenly cut off supply to Yuanqi Forest in the summer, resulting in the latter's suspension of production and supply in the peak sales season, with a loss of less than one billion yuan. This year, something similar could happen again.
At the beginning of 2021, some media reported that Coca-Cola and Pepsi Cola had spoken internally and eliminated the Yuanqi Forest this year. For the Yuanqi Forest, the threat from the two pleasures has never stopped.
The power plant obtained a battle plan with the theme of Coca-Cola 'Mengzhan Yuanqi' in September 2021, and its strategy included using Coca-Cola sugar-free products (including Coke Zero, Sprite Zero Card, Fanta Zero Card, Sprite Fiber, Small Universe, etc.) to impact Yuanqi Forest offline end customers. For example, Coca-Cola products are displayed on both sides of yuanqi forest products.
"Yuanqi Forest Products twice display our products with 4 rows of noodles (2 bottles/product of AHHA series on one side; sugar-free series on the other side), and a reward of 10 yuan is given to one."
"Seize the first floor of the Yuanqi Forest Freezer, the third or fourth floor of the display freezer, successfully display the sugar-free series of products, and reward 20 yuan / home", the meeting minutes show.
Industry insiders who have contact with Coca-Cola told the power plant: "This year, the two music clubs will continue to cut off the supply of Yuanqi Forest bottle caps and raw materials." Earlier, Tang Binsen, founder of Yuanqi Forest, revealed in a public report that in order to make the bottle cap difficult to unscrew under sterile production, the company introduced a bottle cap process from Germany, and it cost more than 20 million yuan to improve the production line.
A second growth line is urgently missing
The overall decline in popularity of the sparkling water category this year is also one of the challenges encountered by Yuanqi Forest.
Some dealers in the above interview of the power plant said that the Yuanqi Forest Sparkling Water has encountered a growth bottleneck and will face a lot of sales pressure in 2022. In addition to the decrease in the popularity of sparkling water categories, the pressure of sparkling water from competitors such as Coca-Cola, Nongfu Spring, and Xicha is becoming more and more obvious.
Relevant media reports said that the sparkling water category has undergone a reshuffle, before 2019, the market share of Yuanqi Forest is as high as 85%, but in 2020, all competitors have kept up, and by the second half of 2021, the market share of Yuanqi Forest is up to 50%, and Coca-Cola's small universe AHHA and Nongfu Spring Soda Sparkling Water are about 25% and 18% respectively. This year, veteran beverage giant Danone also launched sparkling water products, bringing new players to the track.
After the bubble water growth hits the ceiling, it also means that the Yuanqi Forest needs to find a second growth curve. Previously, burning tea and milk tea were two products given by Yuanqi Forest, but the sales of the two products were not ideal.
The outside world speculates that in 2022, yuanqi forest will most likely bet on the three categories of "aliens, fiber tea and mines". Li Guoxun, vice president of Yuanqi Forest, said that the monthly sales of alien electrolyte water exceeded 100 million yuan in the first quarter, which was 2.5 times that of the same period last year. Since the end of last year, Yuanqi Forest's two new products "fiber tea" and mineral water "mineral" have now become new strategic products in the country, and were fully promoted to the domestic offline channel in April this year.
But the aforementioned beverage industry executives also questioned Yuanqi Forest's products. For example, Yuanqi Forest strives to vigorously layout the "mineral" mineral water. "The water source of the Yuanqi Forest is in Yunnan, the freight is too expensive, and the transaction is losing money." The person believes. Different from ordinary drinking water, mineral water has higher requirements for water sources. In the industry, Baishi Mountain, Evergrande Ice Spring, Nongfu Mountain Spring, Kunlun Mountain, etc., have long competed for domestic mineral water sources.
This product path is not easy. Yuanqi Forest was founded in 2016, and in the past 6 years, there is only one explosive product, and the company is gradually losing the magic given by the Internet and gradually becoming an ordinary beverage company.