Choose life, choose work, choose family, choose big TV... I chose not to choose. - Movie "Guess the Train"
Text / Ba Jiuling (WeChat public account: Wu Xiaobo Channel)
After three years of epidemic life, happiness and freedom have retreated to the second line, and health and safety have been placed at the top for no reason.
When the minibus walked into the convenience store, glanced at the fat house happy water on the shelf, looked at the sugar-free sparkling water next to it, recalled the fat-reducing meal he had just eaten, touched his slightly rounded arm, hesitated, and finally picked up the peach-flavored sugar-free sparkling water.
In recent years, similar situations have continued to occur, and with it, "sugar-free" has become the new beverage outlet.
The size of the sugar-free beverage market increased from 1.66 billion yuan in 2014 to 11.78 billion yuan in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 38.69% and a seven-year growth rate of 609%, far exceeding the overall growth rate of the beverage industry.
At the same time, 78% of the consumers surveyed said they would prefer to buy sugar-free products in 2020, and the penetration rate of people who purchased sugar-free or sugar-reduced beverages increased from 36% in 2018 to 55% in 2019.
This time also, the other time also.
In March 2011, Nongfu Spring had just launched the "Oriental Leaves", and the "mysterious" taste persuaded the world to retreat, and it was difficult to persist until 2016, but it won the "Top 5 Most Difficult Drinks in China" that year.
Nowadays, in 2021, Oriental Leaves will occupy more than 50% of China's sugar-free tea market share, and its sales volume will double, ranking first as the first brand of sugar-free tea for many years. So that in April 2022, one of its limited new products was listed, and it was snapped up within 4 days of going online, and even triggered a high-priced auction on idle fish.
In addition, there is the emergence of the Yuanqi Forest. At the beginning of this year, the media also exposed the news that the "two music" (Coca-Cola and Pepsi Cola) tried to encircle the Yuanqi Forest on the sugar-free track.
In view of the above phenomena, Wu Xiaobo Channel New Domestic Products Research Institute released the "Game of Taste and Health - New Domestic Product Category Report: Sugar-free Beverages" (hereinafter referred to as "Sugar-free Beverage New Domestic Product Category Report").
Here are both industry analysis for the upstream and downstream of the sugar-free industry; there are also some leading players to share their business methods.
Today's article will focus on some of the essence of the report.
01. Is "sugar-free" really sweet and healthy?
Regarding sugar-free beverages, the most discussed topic among consumers is taste, followed by appearance packaging, price and freshness.
Consumers have less discussion about the features of the product, and most consumers buy sugar-free drinks to relieve their hunger without gaining weight.
But in the face of sugar-free, many people still worry about whether these sugar-free drinks are really zero sugar, zero additives, zero burden - that is, drinking will not gain weight?
Let's answer the first question first, is sugar-free or not zero sugar.
A: "Sugar-free" does not equal "sugar-free".
According to the national food safety standard "General Principles for Nutrition Labeling of Prepackaged Foods", "sugar-free food" refers to the sugar content of no more than 0.5 grams per 100 grams of solid or 100 ml liquid food.
Therefore, "sugar-free" only limits the amount of sugar in the food.
So the question arises: Since there is no sugar, why is it sweet?
Because of the sweetener.
The common sweeteners on the market are mainly divided into artificial sugar substitutes, natural sugar substitutes and sugar alcohol sugar substitutes.
But sweetness is associated with safety.
Artificial sugar substitutes are mainly divided into six varieties such as saccharin, cyclamate, aspartame, etc., which have the characteristics of high sweetness and low cost, but there are potential hidden dangers such as carcinogenicity and reduced immunity in safety, and have been banned by the health departments of the United States, Japan and other countries.
Natural sugar substitutes mainly extract sugar from natural plants such as stevia and monk fruit, which also has the advantage of high sweetness. But similarly, the safety of steviol glycosides has not been unanimously recognized by the world medical community, its carcinogenicity is still debated in the academic community, and may have an impact on male reproductive ability, and has been banned by the United States, the European Union, Singapore and other developed countries and regions.
Compared with the former two, sugar alcohol substitutes are safe and easy to cause diarrhea for some people who are intolerant to sugar alcohols or consume too much.
In addition, according to the current research results, the safety of sugar alcohol substitutes is higher than that of several other types.
On the market today, erythritol is more prominent.
Its sweetness, good taste, low moisture absorption is conducive to prolonging shelf life, and it is the preferred sugar substitute raw material for many brands.
With the emergence of the "sugar-free" outlet, the mainland's erythritol production increased from 39,800 tons in 2018 to 80,000 tons in 2020, an amplitude of up to 101%, and erythritol occupies an important position in the upstream of the sugar-free beverage industry chain.
Nevertheless, the "Sugar-free Beverage New Domestic Product Category Report" believes that it still has a lot of room for growth, because the proportion of sucrose and fructose glucose syrup is currently as high as 90% of the market share, and synthetic sweeteners and other sweeteners together are only 10%.
02. Who's drinking sugar-free?
Xiao Ji, a post-90s fashion designer friend of Xiao bus, worked in Shanghai with a monthly income of about 20,000 yuan, and later resigned and returned to Hangzhou to start a business.
She has the ultimate professional pursuit of body skin management.
How to be extreme? Usually when she goes out, she is fully armed, as if she is a beekeeper, in order to protect against the sun, she can not be afraid of "social death".
Today, her studio table is filled with sugar-free sparkling water and sugar-free Coke.
Girls like Xiao ji are the core consumer group of sugar-free drinks in recent years.
Consumers of sugar-free beverages are mainly young people aged 18-30, accounting for 69.07% of the total consumer population; gender-neutral, nearly seven of sugar-free beverage consumers have become women; geographically, consumers are mainly concentrated in first-, second- and third-tier cities, accounting for 62.8%; in terms of preference, consumers in first- and second-tier cities have a stronger preference for sugar-free beverages.
So, is it really healthy to fill it with sugar-free cola?
What Xiaoba wanted to tell Xiao Ji was:
According to people's daily news, a study found through long-term follow-up: the same drinking carbonated drinks, drinking sugar-free fat people more, diabetics more people. According to the doctor's analysis, 0 calorie 0 sugar drinks are healthier and safer than ordinary drinks, but mentally speaking, we feel that sugar-free will come to two more cans. In addition, "0 calories and 0 sugar" drinks contain ingredients that stimulate appetite, which will make us want to eat, increasing the risk of obesity, diabetes and so on.
In this regard, industry insiders pointed out that boiled water is definitely the healthiest. If you don't have the habit of drinking drinks before, then don't deliberately drink sugar-free drinks because sugar substitutes are calorie-free; but "sugar-free drinks" are undoubtedly a healthier choice compared to sugary drinks.
Therefore, although "sugar-free" is good, remember not to covet the cup.
After all, its price is really not high.
According to the "Sugar-free Beverage New Domestic Product Category Report", sugar-free beverage products with a price of 1-5 yuan are the most favored. The pricing of the top 100 sugar-free beverage products sold on the Douyin platform is mainly concentrated in 1-5 yuan, accounting for 73%.
03. New domestic experience in the sugar-free track
At the beginning of 2022, according to Sina Finance, "Two Music" once released harsh words:
"This year, I made up my mind to destroy the Yuanqi Forest!"
Less than 6 years after its establishment, Yuanqi Forest has penetrated into the hinterland of cola of the century-old brand, making the two cola giants feel a hint of hidden worry.
What's more, it's not just the Yuanqi Forest.
From the overall layout of new and old domestic beverage brands, the new domestic products represented by Yuanqi Forest and the traditional domestic brands represented by Nongfu Spring have entered the sugar-free beverage track, and competed with the traditional market hegemon Coca-Cola in multiple subdivisions such as carbonated drinks, tea drinks, protein drinks and coffee.
But these rising stars are also inherited from international giants.
A decade ago, China's consumer goods supply chain network in the fields of toiletries, daily necessities and food had matured, but at that time, most of the local production capacity was oem for international brands.
During the period from 2012 to 2015, the FMCG market in China became increasingly competitive. In order to better understand and adapt to the Chinese market, the international giants have had to transfer part of the product design function from the European and American headquarters to China, and since then, some young people in China have slowly learned from the complete industrial chain organized by large international companies and directly learned from the advanced experience of designing consumer goods.
When they started their own businesses, they had advanced international experience on the one hand, and at the same time, they relied on a strong and complete Chinese supply chain network.
Let's take the Genki Forest as an example.
Yuanqi Forest is a beverage company that introduces the thinking model of Internet lean entrepreneurship into traditional industries.
They make beverage products, from positioning and taste selection to packaging styles, all of which are modeled on Internet thinking and create MVPs (the most simple and feasible products).
Subsequently, the A/B test method is used to collect user feedback, and then analyze the data, iterate quickly, and strengthen the user's mind by giving the user 0 sugar and 0 fat education.
In terms of marketing gameplay, in addition to launching regular models, Yuanqi Forest will also design seasonal limited flavors and special flavors, through the circle powder of each flavor, seize the characteristics of young people who love to taste and are willing to share, and form a circle of communication in communities such as Xiaohongshu and Douban to further expand its influence.
However, without its own supply chain, it will never stand up to the waist.
This is the new experience they gained when the "two music" encircled the vitality - even the high-energy gameplay also needs to be supported by the supply chain.
According to public information, since 2019, Yuanqi Forest has been trying to make up for shortcomings.
In three years, it completed the layout of five "forest factories": Anhui Chuzhou, Guangdong Zhaoqing, Tianjin Xiqing, Hubei Xianning and Sichuan Dujiangyan and other self-owned factories.
04. "Sugar-free" moat
Products favored by young people have naturally become the darlings of the capital market, and the sugar-free beverage track has also begun to become crowded.
According to Chengdu Business Daily Red Star News, in 2020 alone, Yiran Milk Mineral Sparkling Water, Unified Tea Ba, Yinlushan Cloud Tea Painting Sugar-free Tea, Jianlibao Microbubbled Water, Master Kong Cold Brewed Green Tea, Ice Peak Tea, Nestlé Youhuo Sparkling Water, Xixiao Tea Sparkling Water and other emerging sugar-free beverages appeared one by one.
In terms of categories, sugar-free carbonated beverages and sugar-free tea drinks have become the fastest growing sub-categories of sugar-free beverages, and the scale has ranked first and second, and the scale is far more than others. In addition, the concept of sugar-free is penetrating into other sub-categories, such as functional drinks and protein drinks and other verticals have emerged sugar-free products.
What everyone values is the future growth space.
The "Sugar-free Beverage New Domestic Product Category Report" mentioned that sugar-free carbonated beverages have at least ten times the development space; sugar-free tea drinks are in the early stage of the outbreak, and the scale is expected to double in 2024.
In 2019, the size of the mainland tea beverage market was 78.7 billion yuan, of which 4.85 billion yuan was sugar-free tea beverages, with a share of only about 6%. According to the prediction of Dongxing Securities Research Institute, the sugar-free tea beverage market in mainland China can maintain a growth rate of more than 20% from 2019 to 2024, and the sales of sugar-free tea beverages will reach 11.5 billion yuan by 2024, accounting for 12% of the tea beverage market share.
But who can have a "moat" in it?
Technological upgrading and product innovation are core issues.
For example, sugar-free teas and "0" preservatives must rely on advanced production lines and high-end technology.
If the brand wants the product to be free of preservatives, it must have a Log6 level aseptic filling technology production line with a cost of hundreds of millions of yuan to ensure that the products produced have no anti-corrosion needs.
Although the addition of an appropriate amount of preservatives meets national standards, a small number of domestic brands have begun to innovate with "0 preservatives" and actively explore the industrial chain and scientific and technological innovation.
According to the news revealed by Yuanqi Forest in 2021, there are less than 30 aseptic filling technology production lines at the Log6 level worldwide, and Yuanqi Forest has put into production 8 at present, and will put into production another 16 in 2022.
According to the Beijing News, Nongfu Spring currently has high-speed aseptic filling equipment and R&D team that meets the Log6 aseptic standard, which can realize the independent research and development and production of products with health attributes.
The author of this article | Gu Tingting | When the value of editing | Fan Chengyuan
Responsible editor | He Mengfei | Editor-in-chief | Zheng Yuanmei | Image source | VCG