The car market in 2022 continues in a "rising voice", and the wave of price increases has also begun to have a trend from new energy to traditional models. Previously, we have analyzed the price increases of fuel models of traditional brands such as Mercedes-Benz. According to one of the views drawn at that time, under the financial pressure required for transformation, traditional car companies subjectively have a fairly strong willingness to "increase prices" under the condition of conditions.
However, in the midst of a "rising sound", the level threshold of traditional fuel vehicles is floating downwards. The whole series of 2.0T, the guidance price of less than 160,000 yuan of the joint venture B-class car Ford Mondeo; positioning medium and large MPV, the guidance price of less than 170,000 yuan of hyundai Kustu; and the Lincoln Navigator, which is priced at more than 400,000 yuan and equipped with a 2.7T V6 engine, and so on. For a time to break our traditional impression of the "cost-effective" models are also emerging in an endless stream, the overall price trend of the domestic car market is also more and more incomprehensible?
Again: cost does not necessarily determine the price
This has been talked about in the issue of Mercedes-Benz's price increase, in fact, it is still conservative. In today's market consumption, the influence of supply and demand on prices is much higher than that of cost factors. Only in the context of holding the advantages of supply and demand can we be qualified to talk about cost pressure. BBA is the first echelon of traditional luxury car fields, so they also have the confidence to obtain "bargaining power" in the current automobile market. For the current wave of car companies that have fallen below the "floor price", how are their performance in supply and demand?
Taking Changan Ford as an example, in 2016, Changan Ford was close to the "Million Club". But in 2021, after a 20.3 percent increase from the previous year, Changan Ford sold only 305,000 units. The situation is similar for Beijing Hyundai, which sold 382,000 vehicles last year, down 23% from the previous year. Similar to this situation is the Dongfeng Citroën, which sacrificed the Versailles C5 X, and so on. The common point of these car companies is that the production capacity level of the past is much higher than the current sales level, and the relationship between supply and demand in the market can be seen.
The pressure on traditional car companies is far greater than that of new forces?
This is said in two ways. First of all, after 2018, domestic automobile consumption has entered a phased stock market state. This means that in a certain period of time, the total domestic automobile consumption is not bad. However, in the case of a relatively fixed "large market", the growth rate of new energy vehicles is quite amazing. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will increase by more than 160% year-on-year, and this high-speed growth will continue in the future. Under this circumstance, the cake of the traditional car enterprise main battlefield will only become smaller and smaller.
A more realistic point is that in the environment of rapid development, the market will present a pattern of "a hundred schools of contention", and various differentiated designs and even niche models can be more inclusive of the market and manufacturers. For example, Ford has previously launched the ST series of small steel guns, and the market response at that time was quite good. In the environment of stock or even shrinking, the choice of consumer market will become more and more convergent, which has also caused the market pattern of "strong and strong" in recent years. Turning over this year's sales list, the models with 5 figures of monthly sales are old acquaintances, and mainly come from those head car companies.
Returning to the mainstream depends on "elite soldiers"
Under the influence of the above supply and demand relationship and market pattern, brands such as mainstream American, French, korean and other brands want to regain sales share from head car companies in China, and the only way to reduce the product line and make concessions in price is to make a combination of fists.
To be clear, these two points do not exist in isolation. First, automotive products themselves are extremely dependent on marginal effects. That is, the greater the demand, the thinner the cost may be spread. This snowball effect naturally forms a turbulent current in front of the catcher, making overtaking not so easy. Especially in the era when modular production has been rolled to a new height, the space for internal mining is not much, and the broken wrist of the hero is a relatively cost-effective option.
For these catch-ups, after all, the glory of the past is not far away, so the product line currently in hand is too large. After weakening or even cutting off some products, concentrate on winning the "elite soldiers", and seek to obtain the blessing of marginal effects in the local battlefield, so as to obtain market breakthroughs. This also echoes why they repeatedly break the "floor price".
Can you finally flip the market successfully?
The way has been, and it has also set off waves, but can this method be successful in the end? This is divided into short-term and long-term two dimensions. In the short term, luxury brands are more likely to succeed. This point is a success story, whether it is cadillac who is "in front of the pearl jade" or The Chang'an Lincoln with strong momentum. Especially after the domestic Lincoln, in the environment that Infiniti and Acura can't open the situation, they have taken their own share from the solidified domestic luxury car market. Just last year, Changan Lincoln sales have exceeded 90,000 units, an increase of nearly half year-on-year. If it goes on like this, I am afraid that Cadillac and Volvo will not be able to sit still.
After all, in the short term, as the first echelon of the BBA, after the price increase, it still leaves a lot of room for the price range within 300,000. Secondly, the number of luxury brands is not as rich as that of ordinary joint ventures. Finally, the price range of luxury brands is less affected by the rise of Chinese brands, while ordinary joint venture brands are squeezed at both ends. So we can also see that Genises has also been eager to try in recent years, and the DS brand will occasionally brush the sense of existence.
But in the long run, if you want to stand firm, you still have to rely on conventional products with more room for development. In addition to the volume factor, but also because the ceiling effect of BBA on the luxury market is extremely stable, but the ordinary joint venture field, in the domestic rapid development history of automobiles in the past 20 years, there have been a variety of "position postures", which can be described as "the prince will have a kind of Xiangning".
And if you want to achieve a reversal, you still have to settle on the product force in the end. This can be seen in the waves caused by the launch of models such as the Ford Mondeo, Hyundai Kustu, citroën Versailles C5 X and so on. They are not only the advantages of price, but also a deeper understanding of the Chinese market, the flexibility of products in sales, after-sales, publicity, as well as the stickiness of car companies, products and consumers, they have brought gratifying changes. As for whether the results can be expanded, it still depends on whether the product strength itself can withstand the test of time.