Jiwei network news, "Now in the mobile phone supply chain, who has the greater production capacity, the more headaches who have."
In view of the current situation of today's smart phone market, a person who is deeply involved in the mobile phone industry chain made a comment. The reason, he said, since the peak of 2017, the total number of smart phones has fallen all the way, to the present even fell more than 100 million units, the current mobile phone upstream supply chain end of the production capacity is surplus.
Due to the weakness of mobile phone consumers, the market continues to raise warnings. A few days ago, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingxi pointed out that due to factors such as insufficient consumer confidence, smartphone orders are likely to continue to decrease in the next few months.
An industry insider who is deeply involved in the upstream of mobile phones told Jiwei Network that since the beginning of this year, smart phones have fallen by 170 million units, and affected by market changes, at the end of the mobile phone supply chain, mobile phone suppliers have helplessly changed from "attacking" to "defending", and some even have a long distance from "guarding".
The smartphone market is under pressure in 2022
From functional machines to smart machines, in this wave of transformation, smart phones once had unlimited scenery.
(Source: IDC)
According to IDC data, from 2011 to 2016, global smartphone shipments climbed all the way to a peak in 2016. It is understood that at the end of the 4th quarter of 2011, one of the three mobile phones sold in the world was a smart phone, and by 2012, the global mobile phone sales camp has also changed significantly, and this year Samsung jumped to the first place in the world, surpassing Nokia for the first time.
Driven by Apple's mobile phone and Android mobile phone brands, global smartphone shipments in 2013 set a new record. This year, global smartphone sales exceeded 1 billion units, of which the fourth quarter of smartphone shipments were 494.4 million units, accounting for 55.1% of global shipments. This achievement also means that for the first time, the annual shipment of smartphones exceeds that of feature phones.
Since then, smartphones have dominated the entire mobile phone market, and their shipments have soared from 1,004.42 million units in 2013 to about 1.47 billion units in 2016.
It can be seen that 2011-2016 is a critical period for functional machines to smart machines, and this stage is the time point of rigid demand for smart machines, which is affected by market supply and demand, making global smart phone shipments continue to rise.
From 2015 to 2018, global smartphone shipments basically remained at about 1.4 billion units, but although global smartphone shipments have remained at about 1.4 billion since 2016, they have declined compared with the same period last year, and since 2018, global smartphone shipments have never exceeded the level of 1.4 billion units.
In other words, since 2016, global smartphones have shifted from an incremental market to a stock market.
2019 is the third year of negative growth in global smartphone shipments. Global smartphone shipments fell below 1.4 billion this year, with longer replacement cycles and geopolitical tensions cited as reasons for the decline in shipments.
However, 2020 can be called the "cold winter" of smart phones, and in 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the global shipment of smart phones is only about 1.2 billion units. IDC analysts said that this shipment decline began with the supply chain crisis and evolved into a global demand problem, and the stagnation of economic activity and the problem of vision around the world reduced consumer information, reassigned the prioritization of people's spending on basic goods, and directly affected smartphone sales in the short term.
Fortunately, the improvement of the epidemic has led to a certain increase in global smartphone shipments in 2021. However, in 2022, global smartphones are in a bad situation of cutting orders, while global smartphone shipments fell by 11% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022.
For the shipment of global smartphones in 2022, some insiders have estimated that the total number of global smart phones in 2022 is estimated to shrink to 1.2 billion, in its view, from 2017 to now, it is only a slow curve after the maturity of global smartphones, and global smartphone shipments will not double in the next few years, and it is also impossible to fall and cut by half.
In other words, although smartphones have long passed their high-growth moments, they still have a huge consumer base due to their powerful features.
From "attack" to "defense"
In the case of a sharp contraction in smartphone shipments, mobile phone upstream suppliers have changed from "attacking" to "defending".
An industry insider frankly said, "The total number of global smartphones has fallen sharply, and 170 million have fallen this year. This fell by 170 million units, and everyone's production capacity was surplus. ”
"Now the global smart market is not good, it is possible to explore to 1.2 billion units, for suppliers, there is no increase in the share to grab, as long as the cost, keep their own share is good, the so-called cold winter waiting for spring, will not always be a cold winter." The person further added.
In fact, the strategy of "attacking" to "defending" the upstream suppliers of smart phones did not start this year, and as early as several years ago, mobile phone upstream suppliers have adopted this measure.
At that time, the competition on the entire smart phone supply chain was quite fierce, the unit price of products fell all the way, on the contrary, competitors were still crazy to expand production, in this context, they have long been well aware of the crisis, so there are mobile phone upstream suppliers in the single hand to protect their own smart phone orders at the same time, and actively expand business opportunities in the non-mobile phone field.
According to the author, after years of accumulation, the upstream mobile phone supplier has grown into one of the important suppliers of non-mobile phone upstream, and its personnel is still expanding.
However, in the face of the unfavorable situation of mobile phones, another industry insider said bluntly that for some manufacturers, it is not so simple to keep, and how to "keep" is becoming a problem that plagues them.
The person admitted that there is now a serious overcapacity in the upstream of mobile phones, based on this, for some mobile phone upstream suppliers, even if they want to keep, they can't keep it.
In fact, it is. According to the author's understanding, since the beginning of this year, due to the sharp decline in smart phone orders, the domestic mobile phone upstream suppliers, the profits of existing manufacturers have been decreasing, their product shipments are not satisfactory, and some of their production line equipment production lines have been forced to shut down, and personnel have also shrunk significantly.
An industry insider introduced to the author that the change of personnel is the most direct impact on the yield of the product, so in the context of the weak demand for smart phones and the fierce competition in the market, it is quite unfavorable for manufacturers with a significant shrinkage of personnel.
From the current situation, in the face of the epidemic, any industry and enterprise can not stay out of the matter, many enterprises are in a precarious situation, the future of many industries is uncertain, only a few can counterattack development, but from another point of view, the crisis of survival contains the potential for change. (Proofreading/Sara)