Looking at the projection market from the perspective of jimi, will screenless TVs subvert traditional color TVs?

When you come home from work, do you want to lie lazily on the sofa, hand press the remote control, the curtain is closed, a curtain slowly falls, and the whole bedroom becomes a theater full of atmosphere, followed by a blockbuster movie for you.

That's the beauty of projection — a screenless TV.

In 2016, Zhong Bo, the founder of Jimi, once said at a product launch: "In five years, screenless TV will subvert traditional TV."

Five years have passed, and traditional color TVs have not been subverted, and screenless TVs have not achieved the expected disruptive growth.

Why is it that this product, which was once highly expected, has not ushered in the expected effect for a long time, and what are the obstacles behind this?

Why can't screenless TVs subvert?

What is a screenless TV? The so-called screenless TV is a projection product such as a projector that we commonly use in the office, and the picture is formed through projection, and there is no real sense of the screen.

Why do people like it? Because of the small size, light weight, portable, texture, there is also a very important point is that the projection screen has no size constraints, near can be small, far can be large, more able to meet people's viewing needs for large screens.

Now the screen TV products on the market are also working hard in the direction of large screens, but the price is expensive, the area is occupied, the installation is not so convenient, and the market audience is not large enough.

Like to like, the reason why screenless TV can not subvert the traditional color TV with a screen, first of all, is because the proportion of projection in the entire color TV is still very small.

In 2020, the retail sales of domestic color TVs were 44.5 million units, and the domestic projection equipment shipments in the same period were 4.17 million units, accounting for less than 10% of the projection, and screenless TVs wanted to subvert traditional home appliances.

Although the market size of color TV is also shrinking, the skinny camel is finally bigger than Bima.

Secondly, from the perspective of display technology, there are many competitors in the traditional color TV itself, such as LCD, miniLED, OLED, etc., the technology will continue to be iterated, and their development will also share a piece of the cake of the market. After the introduction of miniLED TVs by color TV giants such as TCL and Samsung last year, a wave of miniLED TV fever was set off in the entire color TV field.

Although screenless TVs have become popular in recent years, the market is relatively niche, far less than the scale of LCD and other LCD color TVs. According to Omdia, BOE's LCD shipments last year reached 332.5 million pieces.

In addition, the continuous iteration of technology will make buyers have some doubts, and whether they will be eliminated by the market soon after buying this product.

In addition, overdue service is a current situation in television.

The service life of the general household color TV is 8-10 years, but the actual situation is often that many color TVs are still in over-age service even if they reach the service life, theoretically speaking, the performance of electrical products will be greatly reduced when they expire, and the safety hazards will increase, but people generally will not pay attention to the problem of the term, as long as they can continue to use, there will be less ideas and needs for replacement.

There is also a very real problem that the replacement requires real money and silver, in the case of repeated disturbances of the epidemic, economic development is blocked, residents' income is affected, and consumption power is weakened. Without strong purchasing power, even if there is a demand, it is an ineffective demand.

Judging from the official mall of Jimi, the price of general screenless TV ranges from more than 1,000 to tens of thousands of yuan.

Data source: Jimi Technology official mall

But the quality is slightly better, generally up to tens of thousands, or even more expensive, just like laser TV, so the amount of the market is difficult to go up. The transition from screen to screenless is actually a change in living habits, and once the living habits are formed, they are often not easy to change overnight.

In addition, in addition to color TV and projection, we also have mobile phones and computers, which can also realize the function of watching videos. Slowly, whether there is a screen or not, it may eventually become a decoration.

Carry off the palm

It is an indisputable fact that the cake is not large enough, but it is also an indisputable fact that the size of the projection market continues to grow.

From 2014 to 2019, domestic projection equipment shipments increased from 2.13 million units to 4.62 million units, with an average annual compound growth rate of 16.75%, while the average annual compound growth rate of China's projection equipment shipments from 2015 to 2018 was as high as 25.70%. In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate declined, but it remained at the level of 4.17 million units.

Source: IDC Prospective Industry Research Institute

At the same time, the market share of Jimi is also rising. In 2018, the market share of Jimi was 13.2%, which was already the number one brand in domestic shipments that year, and by June 2020, Jimi's share had climbed to 22.2%, continuing to rank first in the domestic projection market.

Source: Jimi Technology Prospectus

This shows that Jimi has maintained a leading market competitiveness in the domestic projection market.

In addition, in the entire domestic projection market, personal consumption continues to rise, and commercial ones are becoming less and less, indicating that there is still a part of the incremental demand for projection in the family. According to IDC data, from 2017 to 2019 and from January to June 2020, China's consumer projection equipment shipments were 1.3 million units, 2.27 million units, 2.79 million units and 1.31 million units, accounting for 39.2%, 52.2%, 60.4% and 77.5%, showing an upward trend year by year.

Jimi is the main personal consumer market, its home entertainment projection products are numerous, and commercial products are few.

There is also an important reason why Jimi can eat the development dividend of the projection market, that is, there are not many real competitors participating in this market, and the main competitors in the industry are mainly Epson, nuts, BenQ, Nippon and millet brands, in addition to the share of nuts more than 10%, the share of other brands is relatively small.

The small market cake does not mean that the enterprise cannot eat dividends.

Just as the so-called market meat is less, but there are also fewer fish, the pole rice at the head naturally eats this wave of development dividends of projection.

What are the performance and valuations?

In the past three years, the income of jimi has maintained a rapid growth.

In the third quarter of 2019-2021, the company's revenue was 2.116 billion yuan, 2.828 billion yuan and 2.644 billion yuan, an increase of 27.60%, 33.62% and 41.65% year-on-year; according to this growth rate, the company is currently in a stage of steady growth.

Deduction of non-net profit also from the loss of 675,400 yuan in 2018, a significant increase to 247 million yuan in 2020, according to the performance forecast released by Jimi this year, last year is expected to achieve a net profit of about 484 million yuan, an increase of 80.07% year-on-year.

Projection as a technical product, but also and its dependence on the development of technology, Jimi in the research and development block also made real efforts, in the first half of last year, Jimi research and development investment of 112 million yuan, accounting for 6.66% of revenue, 2.14 percentage points more than the same period in 2020. In the first half of last year, there were 524 R&D personnel, accounting for 23.79% of the company's total number.

From the above data, Jimi can be regarded as a good company with excellent operation, but the market is also honest, the current share price of Jimi is 396.16 yuan, from last year's high point, the decline reached 55.17%.

According to the data forecast of Flush, the average forecast for EPS in 2022 is 13.72, the average forecast for PE is 28.31 times, and the corresponding target price is 388.41, and the current stock price is very close to the reasonable market price.

The decline in stock prices, in addition to being affected by the overall market, is also a process of squeezing out the bubble and gradually returning to a reasonable valuation.

From a longer-term point of view, the current growth rate of Jimi revenue and net profit growth rate do not match, the future revenue should still be able to maintain a growth rate of 30% or 40%, but the net profit growth rate can not always maintain the current doubling situation.

In addition, this wave of correction in Jimi may contain some market concerns about the future.

For example, the DLP projection technology used by the company, whose core patents are in the hands of Texas Instruments (TI) in the United States, may face the problem of key technology card neck in the future.

In the future, the price reduction of LCD panels may also make Jimi lose its competitiveness.

At a larger level, the entire macroeconomic downturn, whether it is traditional color TV or screenless TV, has been affected to varying degrees.

epilogue

From the current situation, the color TV market competition is fierce, there are many alternative products, technology iteration is fast, and it is almost impossible for screenless TV to shake the market position of traditional color TV.

But that doesn't mean projection isn't developing a market, because the demand is always there.

As a leading enterprise in the domestic projection track, Jimi occupies a large leading edge and is expected to continue to become a "small and beautiful" enterprise in this track in the future.

But now the overall macroeconomic downturn, resident consumption is not optimistic, coupled with the rapid iteration of industry technology, although Jimi has the first market share in the domestic projection market, there are also many uncertainties in the future development.