Source: Visual China
Author | Li Chaoren Chen Fuye
Edit | Jan Pudding
Produced by | Prism Tencent News Xiaoman Studio
On April 1, domestic oil prices rose again, with gasoline and diesel increasing by 110 yuan per ton, which made Liu Kai, who was waiting to pick up the car, more eager to see through.
On March 16, Liu Kai just ordered a Model Y. Previously, Tesla had just raised a wave of prices, each of which was 10,000 yuan more expensive, and at the same time, the Russian-Ukrainian war also made oil prices rise to the fly, making Liu Kai, who had been undecided in the tram and oil workshop, confused. "Hurry up and place an order, and it will rise in two days!" ——Tesla's sales words became the last straw that crushed Liu Kai's "rational consumption", and finally, he slapped his heart on the thigh and paid a deposit of 1,000 yuan on this day.
Unexpectedly, the next day, the Model Y standard edition increased by 15,000 yuan, and half a month later, gasoline ushered in the sixth price adjustment this year, No. 92 gasoline approached 9 yuan / liter, feeling that Liu Kai, who earned blood, was full of joy, as if he had won back the loss in the stock market.
Earlier, on March 10 and 15, Tesla has raised its price twice in a row, reaching about 30,000 yuan, which has since triggered a wave of price increases for car companies. Among the major new energy vehicle companies, Xiaopeng and Ideal have increased prices by more than 10,000 yuan, WITHD has raised 3,000-6,000 yuan, and Nezha Automobile has raised 3,000-5,000 yuan. At the beginning of the year, due to the decline of subsidies, these car companies have carried out a round of price increases of about 5,000 yuan.
Under the rise in oil prices and car prices, there are not a few people like Liu Kai who have gathered to buy new energy vehicles. In February this year, new energy passenger car sales totaled 321,000 units, up 182.2% year-on-year. However, in the long run, whether the new energy vehicle market under the superposition of various factors can continue to be hot beyond expectations is a question mark.
"Still look at the sales data in March and April, in fact, the market feedback after the car price rise is not very good." An industry insider told the author that under the "promotion" of rising oil price prices and subsidies, it did stimulate a wave of new energy vehicle purchases, but it did not mean that there was a qualitative impact on the industry as a whole, "equivalent to digesting this year's orders in advance."
The cake has not changed, the cake has changed. In February, under the influence of the first round of price increases brought about by the subsidy decline and the Spring Festival holiday, Tesla and BYD sales remained stable, while the mainstream new force car companies and traditional car companies represented by Geely fell sharply from the previous month, and the market share was concentrated in the head car companies, and the competition between car companies in brand influence and product strength was more fierce.
For drivers, how to choose between rising gasoline and rising trams to maximize their profits is probably also a confused account. "I think it's the best deal to take the subway." While waiting for the tram to be delivered and enduring the soaring oil prices, Liu Kai seemed to have realized the answer.
On the eve of the rise in oil prices on March 31, people lined up to refuel at sunset. Photo by the author of this article
Oil money is more than 2,000 yuan a year
Although he felt that he had ordered Tesla to pick up a bargain before the price increase, for Liu Kai, the two- or three-month delivery period of the Model Y also lengthened the "torment" of the rise in oil prices.
Liu Kai told the author that he is an extremely sensitive person to oil prices, he is currently driving a Toyota Ralink sedan, although it is a fuel-efficient economic model, but since the purchase of the car in 2017, "every time I see the news that the oil price is going to rise, I will go a day in advance to fill up the oil in the car."
This may be related to commuting distance. Liu Kai needs to drive 60 kilometers from home to and from his unit every day, according to his estimates, before the rise in oil prices this year, the daily fuel bill was only about 20 yuan, and now it needs 30 yuan. When the price of oil rose and he could not mention the gap period of the tram, he chose to drive the car to the subway station first, and then take the subway to work, "10 yuan for fuel, 10 yuan for subway.".
According to the calculation of Guohai Securities, based on the average fuel consumption of 9L/100 km under urban conditions and the annual use of 15,000 kilometers, the annual fuel cost of the No. 95 gasoline vehicle increased by 2174 yuan compared with the same period last year, and the No. 92 gasoline vehicle increased by 2039 yuan. Guosen Securities estimates that in the case of fuel vehicle fuel consumption of 9 liters per 100 kilometers, a service life of 200,000 kilometers, and a price increase of 18,000 yuan for electric vehicles of the same level, the new cost of gasoline prices of 2 yuan / liter corresponding to the 100 kilometers of fuel vehicles is 18 yuan, and the new cost of 100 kilometers of electric vehicles corresponding to the price increase is only 9 yuan.
Oil price trends since 2022. Source: Guohai Securities Research Report
Undoubtedly, the rise in oil prices has pushed up the cost of fuel vehicles, but whether it has really stimulated the consumption of new energy vehicles is not confirmed by conclusive quantitative data.
"Unlike pork prices, the pig cycle is a price fluctuation with a longer span and more intrinsic inevitability, and the large fluctuations in oil prices and lithium prices are temporary and accidental, and do not have a trend." A car company told the author that it does not think that oil prices or car prices are the main logic of the growth of new energy vehicles, just as the collapse in oil prices in previous years has not directly led to the decline in sales of new energy vehicles.
On the eve of the rush hour on the evening of March 31, on the eve of another rise in oil prices, the author came to a gas station on a commuting route in Beijing's fifth ring road, and the number of vehicles going to refuel was significantly higher than before, but there was no long queue. The gas station staff told the author that since the rise in oil prices, the overall number of vehicles going to refuel has indeed decreased, "but it will not fall off a cliff", and the impact of this price increase should not be large, "a liter of oil only rose by more than 1 cent, and a tank of oil was only a few dollars."
A Weilai car owner told the author that in addition to oil and electricity, his biggest feeling is that maintenance costs have been saved. Because of the need to add oil and other processes, the annual maintenance cost of the volkswagen golf before it costs thousands of yuan, and "the electric vehicle structure is simple, only need to change the air filter element regularly, 200 pieces can be done."
On April 1, 2022, a gas station in Tianhe, Guangzhou, oil prices. Source: Visual China
Liu Kai as usual plans to fill the fuel tank before the price increase, but he does not think that the rise in oil prices is the main incentive for him to buy new energy vehicles: "In order to save a hundred yuan of oil money every month, to spend 300,000 yuan to buy an electric car, the logic does not make sense." In fact, during this period of taking the subway to commute to work, what makes him most happy is the cost of parking, parking the car to the downstairs of the unit for 48 yuan, and parking to the nearest subway station near home is only 25 yuan.
"Even if you mention the Model Y at that time, you may not be willing to drive to the company, mainly because the parking fee is too expensive." Liu Kai said.
BYD became the biggest winner in the price increase
Sun Zhi also bought a tram before the march price increase, for the simple reason that his Beijing new energy license plate indicator was about to expire.
As an "old driver" who obtained a driver's license in 2006, Sun Zhi can count the number of times he drives with 10 fingers. Before buying a car, he deliberately found a sparring partner, 2,000 yuan for 15 hours, and his criteria for choosing a car are equally simple: first of all, it is not too expensive, the budget is less than 200,000, and it is not painful to crash; secondly, it is a big brand, with security and peace of mind. As a result, two models came into view: BYD Song and GAC Aean.
"Actually, I didn't understand anything, I consulted a friend who bought BYD Song last year, and he told me that I felt good and that the driving experience was even better than the Audi he drove before." Sun Zhi told the author that considering that BYD is an old brand and has its own battery factory, it just bought the car before the price increase: "171,000 yuan by BYD Songti's cash car, sales said that Beijing will hoard a large number of cash cars when the number plate indicators are about to be issued and expire." ”
BYD is the "big winner" in this round of oil prices and car price surges. According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, due to the decline in subsidies at the beginning of the year and the Spring Festival holiday, domestic new energy passenger car sales in February were 317,000 units, down 24% month-on-month, while BYD's new energy vehicle sales in the month were 88,000 units, down only 6% month-on-month, accounting for 25% of the total market sales in the month.
Sales trend of new energy manufacturers. Source: Multiplying Association
"Compared with the price increase at the beginning of the year because of the subsidy decline, the impact of the raw material price increase in March is smaller, and the sales volume in these days after the price increase is not much lower than before the price increase, and at present, the possibility of orders after the overdraft is unlikely." A car company with the highest sales of new energy vehicles told the author that sales did decline significantly after the price increase in January, but it had returned to normal in February, and the price increase in March had little impact. But he also acknowledged that there is a divergence in sales of different car companies. Due to the existence of competitive relations, the person did not name specific car companies.
Guohai Securities believes that the price increase puts forward higher requirements for the comprehensive strength of each main engine factory, including brand marketing, cost control, product strength, etc., and the strong can better digest the impact of the price increase and continue to maintain the rapid growth of sales; the weak will be greatly affected in sales. The rising price tide will be a reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, and the market share will be further concentrated on high-quality brands.
For example, delivery time. As an important part of the car buying experience and brand perception, in February this year, Xiaopeng Automobile delivered only more than 6,000 vehicles, down 52% month-on-month, higher than WEILAI and Ideal-36% and -31%, and was surpassed by more than 7,000 Nezha cars. On March 15, 100 prospective owners of Xiaopeng jointly sent an open letter to He Xiaopeng, questioning the repeated delays in delivery of the P5 460 version models they had ordered since October last year.
For the decline in delivery, Xiaopeng Automobile said that the transformation of the Zhaoqing factory is the main reason for the difficulty of delivery. At the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum on March 25, He Xiaopeng said that the tight supply of batteries led to an increase in prices, followed by a decline in sales, which may be a good thing in the medium term. He believes that the problem, including chip and battery shortages, will improve in the middle of the year and in the second and third quarters of next year.
Low-end models with limited price increase space and car companies that are still struggling with oil to electricity may take the lead in "death".
In February, Great Wall Motors temporarily stopped the sales of its 100,000 yuan or so Eurola black cat and white cat; while Geely Automobile was unusually calm in the price increase tide, except for Geometry and Polar Star, its new energy brands raised prices. At the earnings report on March 23, Group CEO Gan Jiayue attributed the reason to supply chain and cost control issues. But another set of data is that Geely's dozens of brands of new energy models sold less than 20,000 vehicles in February.
After the policy and market dividends fade, only good enough car companies can pass on the cost to consumers.
Follow Tesla
Tesla is also the "king" in the tide of price increases in this wheel: three price increases year-to-date, with a total range of about 25,000 yuan, but sales in February still reached 56,500 units, down only 6% month-on-month. However, what makes Liu Kai unhappy is that he spent more money but bought back worse services.
"When I first saw the car, the sales girl was polite and polite, and her attitude hardened after the price increase. I joked that the price increase has become Tesla's marketing means, and she came back to say that Tesla has never lacked customers and does not need any marketing means, and the price increase can better reflect Tesla's identity. Liu Kai told the author that in another Tesla store, after the sales talks collapsed, the other party directly said to himself, "Let you place an order for your own good, don't put an order and forget it", and then "throw the mouse on the table and leave." Sales even liken Tesla to a Moutai-like investment.
As a typical consumable of "20% off on the ground", can cars really continue to increase in price? The above-mentioned car companies believe that car prices will return to normal with the reduction of raw materials, and at the same time, in order to compete for market share, there will be a price war between car companies. In fact, due to cost fluctuations and the need to compete for the sinking market, the Model 3 and Model Y have both experienced price cuts last year.
Even behind this round of price increases, there is also the smoke of the price war. The above-mentioned top sales of car companies said that since last year, a variety of raw materials began to rise, but in order to exchange price for volume, many costs are borne by car companies; this year's raw materials rose more than expected, everyone can not hold back, while waiting and seeing while following Tesla such a first-line car companies collective price increase, "most of the price increases follow the cost, and did not increase profits."
Among the high-end models with price adjustments in March, tesla Model Y dual-motor all-wheel drive long-endurance version equipped with 76.8 degrees ternary batteries rose by a total of 28,000 yuan, and the Xiaopeng P7 equipped with an 80-degree ternary battery rose mainly in the early 10,000 yuan, the Xiaopeng P5 equipped with a ternary battery of about 70 degrees rose by about 14,000 yuan, and the ideal ONE equipped with a 40.5-degree ternary battery rose by 11,800 yuan.
It is not difficult to find that if calculated according to the battery capacity, the ideal ONE closely follows the pace of Tesla's price increase, and Xiaopeng's price increase is moderate. The price increase of the low-end second-tier car companies is more conservative, of which the second-tier new force car companies Nezha V and U series are equipped with 38, 54 degrees and 68 degree batteries respectively, with an increase of 3000-5000 yuan.
On the road of price increases, except for the arrogant Tesla, the car companies that have not yet sat firmly dare not venture forward.
Weilai is a clear stream, and it is the only mainstream new energy vehicle company that has announced that it will not increase prices. At the earnings performance meeting at the end of March, Li Bin reiterated that Weilai did not have a price increase plan, and then Weilai's official statement said that the recent price increase of car companies stemmed from the dramatic rise in raw materials based on batteries, chip shortages and increased costs of the entire supply chain, and it has not yet decided whether to increase prices, and will make dynamic decisions according to the development of the situation.
Some netizens joked: Weilai does not increase the price because it is already expensive. In fact, under the pressure of cost and profitability, it is also raising prices in disguise.
The above-mentioned Weilai car owner said that last year, Weilai added lithium iron phosphate to the original ternary battery, and later advertised the number of power exchanges in the service concept from the earliest unlimited to the current 6 times a month, in fact, there is a taste of price increases. More people believe that Weilai's hidden attitude towards price increases comes from concerns about brand recognition and sales - in the past year, in terms of delivery, it has not only been surpassed by Xiaopeng and Ideal, but also chased by Nezha and others.
A Weilai car owner: the car is bought and delivered by the service, the author photographed
Feng Shui takes turns, and in the price war caused by this round of costs, BYD, as a traditional car company, finally smiled happier than the new forces. BYD's price increase is 3,000-6,000 yuan, especially the super hybrid DM-I series that supports the surge in sales, with an increase of 3,000 yuan. For the outbreak of BYD, the above-mentioned industry insiders believe that on the one hand, it comes from the support of its entire industry chain, which can better control the cost of batteries; on the other hand, it is the successful transformation of the plug-in hybrid model introduced from Honda, and the smaller battery capacity of this model (about 10-20 degrees) The demand for raw material costs is less sensitive.
After driving on the new car for more than a week, Sun Zhi shaved it twice, once when he was out of the parking space, he rubbed the side car, and once rear-ended the front car that was successfully plugged, but he was still very satisfied with his BYD Song, "The steering wheel is light and powerful, except for the smell of the leather of the seats, the interior is full of plastic feeling."
(Liu Kai and Sun Zhi are pseudonyms in the text)
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