As the global sales of electric vehicles continue to climb to new highs, what opportunities and challenges are the new energy vehicle and power battery industries facing? In view of the many pain points that restrict the development of new energy vehicles, such as safety, cruising range, low temperature endurance, charging efficiency, etc., can the large cylindrical battery provide the optimal solution? As Tesla opens the prelude to the mass production of large cylindrical batteries, what kind of changes will the entire industry pattern usher in?
Recently, the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2022), which has attracted much attention from the industry, was unveiled in Beijing as scheduled. In the "Power Battery Sub-Forum" session of the conference, Dr. Fan Wenguang, Vice President of Shenzhen BAK Power Battery, shared the industry views and latest progress of BAK around the large cylindrical technology.
The vast market prospects for new energy vehicles
In 2021, global electric vehicle sales will exceed 7 million, and it is conservatively predicted that it will exceed 20 million in 2025, and the corresponding demand for power batteries will exceed 1600GWh. Dr. Fan Wenguang revealed: "According to the customer demand we have received combined with industry information, the large cylindrical battery will account for at least more than 30% of the power battery demand, that is, about 480GWh, which has exceeded the total global demand in 2021." ”
Dr. Fan Wenguang said that the current layout of electric vehicle enterprise customers for large cylindrical batteries can be roughly divided into the following three echelons:
The first echelon: the eve of mass production, it is expected to be officially loaded into the market in 2023;
The second echelon: substantive project research and development, is expected to be mass production and loading around 2025;
Tier 3: information gathering, market research, and feasibility assessment.
"At present, most of the new energy vehicle companies are in the second and third echelons. In the next 5-10 years, many large new energy vehicle companies have finalized the layout of the economical use of square shell / blade lithium iron phosphate battery, high-end use of ternary + silicon large cylindrical battery layout. Dr. Fan Wenguang pointed out, "When the experience of electric vehicles has been equal to that of fuel vehicles, and even in terms of acceleration performance, vehicle engine system and intelligence, etc., it has surpassed fuel vehicles, then the first thing we should pay more attention to is to improve the reliability of electric vehicles, completely solve problems such as fire and explosion, and pull the price of vehicles to level with fuel vehicles without policy subsidies." In this way, electric vehicles can truly complete their historical mission, that is, to completely replace fuel vehicles. ”
Whether the large cylindrical battery can provide the optimal solution
Dr. Fan Wenguang pointed out that the opponent of electric vehicles is not other electric vehicles, and the opponent of power batteries is not other power batteries, but fuel vehicles.
"Frequent safety accidents, insufficient mileage, low charging efficiency, long charging time, charging pile service is not convenient enough... These factors are the biggest obstacles and challenges that currently restrict electric vehicles from replacing fuel vehicles. Dr. Fan Wenguang said, "But there is also an opportunity, that is, the use of cylindrical cells with a high safety ceiling to support ultra-high energy density chemical systems, while supporting super fast charging technology." We can now do a large cylindrical battery of 280Wh/Kg, which can be charged to 80% of the capacity in just 12 minutes. When electric cars equipped with this battery are introduced, the problem of range anxiety may be solved. ”
At Tesla's Battery Day in September 2020, Tesla officially released that the next generation of power batteries will use large cylindrical batteries with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm, which has also become a very iconic event in the field of large cylindrical batteries. However, long before the battery day, Dr. Fan Wenguang accurately predicted topics such as large cylinders, omnipolar ears, and silicon anodes in a media interview.
"Why are we able to make accurate predictions? Because as a company that has been deeply engaged in the field of cylindrical batteries for 17 years, BAK believes that making the size of cylindrical batteries larger will be the optimal solution for high-end electric vehicle battery solutions in the next 5-10 years based on its own analysis, understanding and judgment. This route was finalized in 2019, basically took shape in early 2020, and was officially introduced to major OEM customers. By the eve of Battery Day in September 2020, these concepts were ready to come out. Dr. Fan Wenguang said.
Power battery demand pyramid analysis
Today's power battery market is mainly square shell /blade, soft package, cylinder three points of the world. Why does BAK think that large cylindrical batteries are the optimal solution for mid-to-high-end electric vehicles in the next 5-10 years?
In order to better illustrate this problem, Dr. Fan Wenguang borrowed from Maslow's demand theory and believed that power batteries also have a demand pyramid, and the five levels from bottom to top are safety, cost performance, endurance, life, and fast charging.
First, security: security is the cornerstone of everything, is the premise of restricting all other performance. Because of the smallest single body, independent protection of the single body, independent pressure relief device and honeycomb arrangement of the battery pack structure, the large cylindrical battery is the highest safety among the current mainstream forms of power batteries, and is an ideal choice for CTP, CTC and other technical routes.
Second, cost-effective: because of its own simple process, high standardization, reduced structural parts at the package level, simple groups and other factors, large cylindrical batteries have certain advantages in the overall cost. However, in order to realize these advantages, it is necessary for every link in the entire industrial chain to work together to break through the inflection point of scale.
Third, the endurance: the mileage is a major pain point of the current new energy vehicles, mainly determined by the energy density of the battery pack and the energy efficiency of the whole vehicle. Energy density and battery stability or safety are inversely correlated. The high safety limit of large cylindrical batteries allows them to support chemical systems with higher energy density, such as high-nickel ternary 811 positive electrodes, silicon-containing anodes, etc., providing sufficient space for future exploration. In addition, the vast land area of the mainland, low temperature endurance also has a restriction on the penetration rate of electric vehicles, and the ternary system and omnipolar ear commonly used in large cylindrical batteries have inherent performance advantages with low impedance. BAK's large cylindrical batteries still emit 90% of the power at minus 30 degrees.
Fourth, life: Compared with the number of cycles we commonly use, the two concepts of Energy Throughput energy throughput and Calendar Life calendar life can more fully characterize the service life of the battery cell. The energy throughput refers to the sum of the energy exchanges completed during each charge and discharge cycle during the entire life cycle. It not only measures the number of cycles, but also takes into account the energy equivalent of the battery itself. The calendar life is more reflected in the ability of the battery to maintain its own performance in various environments for a long time in a non-use state. Although the number of cycles of ternary cells is relatively small, because of their high energy density, energy throughput and high calendar life, there is no disadvantage in their service life.
Fifth, fast charging: After solving the above problems, in the use experience of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles, the final gap is fast charging. Thanks to the blessing of full-pole ear technology, advanced chemical system and cell design capabilities, BAK is facing large cylindrical battery products mass-produced in about 24 or 25 years, fast charging to 80% up to 20 minutes, and the fastest can be within 12 minutes. Within ten minutes, it can be charged with an endurance of 400 to 500 kilometers, which is no different from the current fuel vehicle refueling experience. In addition, there is currently a very hot high-voltage fast charging technology in the field of fast charging, which requires multiple batteries to be connected in series, which puts forward extremely high requirements for the consistency of the batteries. The large cylindrical battery can be very well matched with high-voltage fast charging technology because of its advantages of high monomer voltage and good consistency.
"The large cylindrical battery is a breakthrough in the penetration rate of electric vehicles, which will be mutually successful with the electric vehicle industry and widely used in energy storage and other fields at the same time." It will change the way we live in the future and contribute to the carbon neutrality vision of human society. Dr. Fan Wenguang said.