"In the past year, with the accelerated evolution of the world's century-old changes and the century-old changes in automobiles, superimposed on the double-carbon target, new energy vehicles have ushered in the industry outlet and achieved explosive growth." On March 26, at the 100-person forum, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD Co., Ltd., said that the more the industry grows at a high speed, the more it is necessary to think of danger in times of peace, seek progress in stability, take various complex factors into account, and adhere to technological innovation to solve development problems.
It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach 35% this year.
Last year, the development of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, and the speed of industry change in the future may be faster than imagined.
On the one hand, there are more and more positive factors that promote the accelerated development of new energy vehicles through technology, products, markets, policies, etc.; on the other hand, there are more and more negative factors restricting fuel vehicles due to rising oil prices, emission upgrades, energy conservation and environmental protection, and industrial transformation.
In fact, with the rapid iterative progress of technology and products, new energy vehicles have surpassed traditional fuel vehicles in terms of performance, shape, noise, acceleration, smoothness, intelligence, and cost of use, and the price has begun to have a certain competitiveness, and the endogenous drive has continued to increase.
Taking BYD as an example, in the past year, BYD has adhered to the "two legs" of pure electric and plug-in hybrid walking with subversive technologies such as blade batteries, DM-i super hybrid, and e-platform 3.0, ushered in the outbreak of technology, products and markets, and sold 740,000 vehicles throughout the year, including new energy vehicles exceeded 600,000 units, an increase of 220% year-on-year, ranking first in China for 9 consecutive years, achieving a large development of thick accumulation and thin hair. This year, BYD continued to ride the momentum, with sales of new energy vehicles exceeding 180,000 units from January to February, a five-fold increase year-on-year.
"The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland increased by an average of 1.3 percentage points per month from 6% in January at the beginning of last year to 22% in December at the end of the year. The penetration rate in the first half of March this year has exceeded 28%, and it is estimated that the penetration rate for the whole month will exceed 28%. Wang Chuanfu said that the growth of new energy vehicles last year was different from that of three years ago, when online car-hailing and taxis accounted for a large proportion, but last year, private cars accounted for as much as 88%, and users are supporting the purchase of new energy vehicles through practical actions.
It is understood that BYD made a test, at the local auto show, spent 5 days to observe the car watching behavior of the audience. In this process, 60% to 70% of consumers are looking at new energy vehicles, while only 30% to 40% of consumers are looking at fuel vehicles, which has also become the direct reason for the monthly increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.
"According to the speed of industry change last year, if it is calculated at the same speed, at the end of this year, it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland will reach 35%." Wang Chuanfu said.
Three suggestions for the new energy automobile industry
"Of course, we are also soberly aware that behind the explosive growth of the market, the industry is facing severe challenges such as the intensification of the epidemic, the soaring price of raw materials, and the instability of the supply chain." Wang Chuanfu believes that the more the industry grows at a high speed, the more it is necessary to think of danger in times of peace, seek progress in stability, take into account various complex factors, and persist in using technological innovation to solve the problems of development.
In this regard, Wang Chuanfu also put forward the following three suggestions and ideas:
First, we hope to clarify the preferential policies for new energy vehicles in the post-subsidy era and study the establishment of an integral pool to adjust the balance between supply and demand.
From a worldwide perspective, European and American countries are increasing their fiscal and tax support for new energy vehicles, but the mainland's new energy vehicle purchase subsidies, purchase tax reductions and other policies will be withdrawn by the end of this year. Considering that product development takes 3 to 5 years, in order to stabilize industry expectations, it is recommended that the purchase tax reduction policy for new energy vehicles can be extended to maintain policy stability during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.
At the same time, last year's new energy vehicle sales reached a new high, the supply and demand of points is seriously imbalanced, the price fluctuates sharply, which is not conducive to the development of the industry, it is recommended to refer to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture, study and set up an integral pool to adjust the balance between supply and demand, enhance the predictability of the integral price, and ensure the effective operation of the double integral policy.
Second, insist on pure electric and plug-in hybrid "two legs" to walk. Last year, plug-in hybrids had a 50 percent share of the European market, but only 18 percent in China. More than 60% of China's families are still car-free families, plug-in hybrid can achieve short-distance electricity, long-distance oil, so that the first family car can be oilable and electric, which can effectively solve the first purchase and exchange needs of more families, and form a significant substitution effect on the huge stock fuel vehicle market.
Third, adhere to lithium iron phosphate as the right development path. China cannot be necked by oil cards from the era of fuel vehicles to the neck of metal cobalt and metal nickel in the era of electric vehicles, and lithium iron phosphate does not contain rare metals, which is more suitable for the tolerance of social resources.
In addition, the soaring price of raw materials is a challenge that the industry needs to overcome. Wang Chuanfu also suggested comprehensively sorting out the layout and production capacity of lithium carbonate resources, increasing domestic mining and foreign imports, maintaining market supply and demand, stabilizing price expectations, and promoting the healthy and safe development of the industry.