#头豹洞见
● March has not yet passed, another round of price increases for new energy vehicles has spread to almost every car company, Tesla has increased prices twice since March, the threshold price of Model 3 has reached 279,900 yuan, and the latest price threshold of Model Y is 316,900 yuan. Xiaopeng's price increase is in line with Tesla's, and BYD's dynasty network and ocean network's new energy models are generally up 3,000-6,000 yuan. After raising the price of the good cat GT version by 12,000 yuan, Euler Automobile announced the price increase again on March 19. WM raised the official guidance price for all its models, ranging from 7,000 to 26,000 yuan after the comprehensive subsidy.
●What are the reasons for the intensive announcement of a new round of price increases by new energy vehicle companies? Do new energy vehicles still have advantages? What is the impact of price increases on the development of the new energy automobile industry? Wu Zikun, an analyst at the Leopard Research Institute, was interviewed by "Science and Technology E Man" to analyze for you what kind of impact the price of new energy vehicles will have on the new energy vehicle industry after the price of new energy vehicles soars.
Tech E Man
A battery industry insider believes that this is the "pot" of power battery raw materials - since this year, the price of lithium, cobalt and other upstream raw materials for lithium batteries has risen sharply, and the lithium battery link has also been under obvious pressure.
March has not yet passed, another round of price increases in new energy vehicles has spread to almost every car company, Tesla, BYD, Nezha, Xiaopeng, Weima, Geely's zero run and geometry have joined the March price increase army, raising thousands of yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.
Pressure to the ideal, Weilai side, although the price increase has not yet been announced, but the ideal car CEO Li xiang posted on social media, "there is no price increase, most of the price increase has not been negotiated, waiting for the negotiation will generally increase the price immediately." Weilai also said that it will make flexible decisions according to changes in the objective environment.
Head Leopard Research Institute analyst Wu Zikun
Wu Zikun, an analyst at the Leopard Research Institute, said in an interview with E Xia Jun that this round of price increases may continue throughout 2022. Judging from the market feedback, behind the overall price increase, the winner does not seem to be these new energy vehicle companies that make consumers grit their teeth.
The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are generally rising
Kobayashi, who wants to buy a new energy car, complained that the recent car price increase has been too strong. Tesla has raised prices twice in a row since March, the threshold price of Model 3 has reached 279,900 yuan, the latest price threshold of Model Y is 316,900 yuan, and the price threshold of these two cars is now gone at 230,000+ and 270,000+ last year.
Xiaopeng's price increase is in line with Tesla's, and Xiaopeng G3i is raised by 1.07-1.43 million yuan; Xiaopeng P5 raised by 1.32-15,600 yuan; Xiaopeng P7 raised by 1.01-20,000 yuan. BYD's dynasty network and ocean network of new energy models rose by 3,000-6,000 yuan. After raising the price of the good cat GT version by 12,000 yuan, Euler Automobile announced the price increase again on March 19, and the guidance price of all models of the Euler good cat (including the GT version) was raised by 6,000-7,000 yuan. GAC Aeon did not hesitate to let go, and its AION Y/AION S Plus/AION V Plus rose by 4,000-10,000 yuan this round.
Ford Mustang Mach-E Wind Chasing Full Drive Deluxe Edition (Long Endurance) raised the price by $7,500. The overall increase of the zero-run C11 series of models ranges from 20,000-30,000 yuan. WM raised the official guidance price for all its models, ranging from 7,000 to 26,000 yuan after the comprehensive subsidy. "It's hard to save enough money to buy a small peng, the price has risen, since the price increase is almost the same, look at Tesla, you can still buy it, the result is a second price increase, and now you have to borrow money." Kobayashi was distressed.
In fact, new energy vehicle companies are also complaining. The relevant person in charge of a new energy vehicle company recently said, "It is really impossible to withstand the rise in the price of raw materials such as batteries, since the second half of last year, the price of ningde times power batteries has increased twice, according to the battery cost of a new energy vehicle, the last time it rose by 10,000 yuan, and not long ago it rose by 10,000 yuan." No way, we've only quietly raised prices twice in recent months. ”
The car company's complaint Ningde Times replied that it would not comment. However, another battery industry insider believes that this is the "pot" of power battery raw materials - since this year, the price of lithium, cobalt and other upstream raw materials for lithium batteries has risen sharply, and the lithium battery link has also been under obvious pressure. From the public data, the price of lithium carbonate, which was quoted at about 50,000 yuan / ton in January last year, rose to 300,000 yuan / ton in January this year, and exceeded 500,000 yuan / ton in March. The market price of cobalt in East China also rose from less than 300,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year to about 570,000 yuan / ton in March this year. Nickel has also risen by about 37% in the last 60 days.
"We probably made a calculation, 100,000 pieces of lithium carbonate price increase, for the average may be about 150,000 models, its cost impact is about 2, 3 thousand yuan or so", there are new energy materials stock fund people analysis. The cost of 100,000 yuan per ton of nickel transmitted to the battery factory with 50 kWh of electricity must rise by at least 3,000 or 4,000 yuan or more, and the cost of high-end models will rise even higher.
So, what are the reasons for the intensive announcement of a new round of price increases by new energy vehicle companies?
Galaxy Securities pointed out that on the one hand, there is a shortage of chips, rising raw materials, and increasing car-making costs; On the other hand, the supply exceeds demand, and the waiting time in line for car purchase is long, which gives new energy vehicle companies the confidence to increase prices. The increase in terminal price will further test the competitiveness of products, and car companies with cost control, raw material cost advantages, and capital cash flow advantages will benefit significantly, so it will accelerate the differentiation of the competition pattern of new energy vehicle markets.
New energy vehicles still have advantages?
At present, the new round of price increases of new energy vehicles is caused by the rise in raw material prices, but the lack of core and the tight supply of parts are also another major reason for the price increase of new energy vehicles, superimposed on the current global new crown pneumonia epidemic control is not as expected, the depreciation of the US dollar, together constitute this round of large-scale price increases.
Transmitted to terminal sales, this round of price increases will inevitably have a certain impact on the production and sales of new energy vehicles, but Wu Zikun believes that the impact will not be too large. The reason is that, on the one hand, the current global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is less than 10%, there is a lot of room for growth, many institutions are very optimistic about the future penetration rate, and the market demand is very large.
In addition, in the context of the price increase of new energy vehicles, oil prices are also rising in price, although the two can not be hedged, but it is bound to reduce the impact of new energy vehicle price increases. Based on the industry itself, the continuous optimization of new energy vehicles, the improvement of more models, the improvement of after-sales service, and the improvement of technology will also make up for the impact of the price increase of new energy vehicles.
If you look at it from this analytical point of view, the pessimistic signals issued by some insiders in recent days such as "the future of new energy vehicles is no longer", "there is no profit without price increases, more price increases will definitely inhibit consumer demand, and the development of new energy vehicles in the future may be hindered" seems to be exaggerated. As Wu Zikun analyzed, new energy vehicles still have advantages. It has the advantages of "from direct car purchase subsidies to various license support" at the policy level, as well as the cost advantage of using cars compared with traditional models (although the purchase cost of new energy vehicles is more expensive, the cost of new energy vehicles is much cheaper than that of oil vehicles, and in the context of the large price increase of new energy vehicles, the Russian-Ukrainian war has also led to an increase in oil prices, which has increased the cost of oil vehicles), and there are more prospects (such as battery replacement popularization, car intelligence, etc.).
However, this does not mean that the challenges of the new energy vehicle industry have been reduced. The lack of cores that began at the end of 2020 has not been completely solved by the industry so far. As the main carrier of the development of automobile intelligence and electrification, although new energy vehicles do not have core components such as traditional fuel vehicle engines and transmissions, chips are always core technical problems that restrict their development, so it is still urgent to implement key core technology research and strengthen the construction of the automotive chip industry chain. The price increase of the whole machine, which is mainly composed of power battery price increases, also warns car companies that the research and development of related battery technology can not be slackened.
This round of new energy vehicle price increases may continue throughout the year. Because the potential demand for lithium batteries this year is significantly higher than the actual production capacity, from the perspective of lithium resource supply, the lithium battery production of the supply and demand balance in 2022 is 750-800GWh, and the output planning of the top ten enterprises in the industry has exceeded 750GWh (also need to consider long-tail enterprises and non-vehicle demand), so when the excessive potential demand is squeezed out, the industry demand is still determined by the supply of the most scarce link.
It can achieve 750-800GWh battery production and global sales of 900-10 million new energy vehicles, maintaining a growth rate of about 50% year-on-year, which is similar to the impact of silicon materials on industry demand last year.
Under such a situation, the adverse impact on the development of the new energy vehicle industry in 2022 is that the promotion, popularization or impact of the overall new energy vehicles; The industry will integrate rapidly, and many small businesses are at risk of rapid obsolescence. Of course, there is also a positive side, that is, to promote the industry as a whole to continue to develop lithium-ion battery technology, further improve the construction of related industrial chains, and compress costs; so that the quality and performance of the whole machine products will be rapidly improved, or a new pattern of new energy vehicles will be established.
* Reprinted from "Science and Technology E Man", the original title is "Behind the comprehensive price increase, the advantages of new energy vehicles are no longer?" 》。
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