Produced 丨 Stock Market Dynamics Analysis
Author 丨 Li Xingran
On March 9, 2022, Shen Hui, founder and CEO of WM Motors, posted on his Sina Weibo that with the high price of oil, adding electricity is more economical than refueling, "5 years and 100,000 kilometers, power plus saves more than 80,000 yuan than refueling, enough to buy four LV or Hermès." So, "Come and power up!" ”
Recently, the author just happened to see the 33rd episode of "Easy Car Horizontal Review" produced by the original program of Yiche - "300,000 Oil and Electricity Wars!" Extreme Krypton, Ford Electric Horse, Tesla Team Battle 3 Series! ",Just look at the cost of single kilometer replenishment, can't help but sigh that the tram is really fragrant!
But are the trams really that fragrant? With this question, the author went to check another very important influencing factor - retention rate, the result is just the opposite, the tram is really not fragrant.
In fact, the retention rate and everyone's car conditions, environment and preferences are different, which will affect the final car experience, is a multi-factor problem, but not only a single kilometer electricity / fuel cost problem, oil prices have risen, does not mean that the tram is really fragrant.
Cost of replenishment per kilometer: Tram rolling fuel truck
From the following energy test chart from the E-car horizontal evaluation, it can be seen that even in the low temperature environment of the northern winter, in the case of the same time, temperature and road conditions, whether it is a hot foreign brand or an independent brand at the same price, the cost of using the energy at the charging station (including parking fees during charging) is much lower than that of the same level of oil car representative - BMW 325Li.
Source: EasyCar Horizontal Review
You know, this is still the oil price before the Spring Festival, when the price of No. 95 gasoline was only more than 8 yuan, and now it has entered the 9 yuan era, and the cost of using oil trucks will only be higher.
In addition, it must be noted that in addition to the fuel cost of the oil car, the maintenance cost is also a big expense, such as the oil that must be changed for each routine maintenance, the machine filter, etc., the tram is not used, and the brake oil, tires, etc. that the tram needs to be replaced are all indispensable.
What's more, in first-tier cities, oil truck indicators are really difficult to obtain!
Looking at it this way, the tram is really fragrant!
Still hesitant to buy, buy buy?
Retention rate: Oil trucks are much stronger than trams
However, are trams really that fragrant?
The answer is: no.
In terms of the cost of using the car, there is another important indicator not to forget, that is, the retention rate. The author has a colleague who bought a Honda Accord eight generations in 2008, has never had an accident, and in early 2019 it can sell 80,000 yuan, and the 11-year-old car has a retention rate of about 40%.
And what about trams?
According to the February 2022 China Automobile Retention Rate Report jointly released by the China Automobile Dealers Association and the Jingzhen Estimation Used Car Big Data Platform, the 3-year used car retention rate of electric vehicles in the Chinese auto market is 51%, and the 3-year used car retention rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles is 61.3%.
In contrast, even in the top 15 of its own brands, Chery has the lowest retention rate, its second-hand car 3-year retention rate is 58.9%, in this ranking, tram representatives only Weilai can squeeze into the top 15, and its retention rate is more than 61%, ranking 7th.
Regarding the reason for the low retention rate of new energy vehicles, the outside world generally believes that this is because the market is far from mature.
On the one hand, there are some shortcomings in the new energy vehicles themselves, such as the long winter in the north will greatly affect the endurance of electric vehicles, and the situation that charging facilities are unreliable, unable to install home charging piles and the situation that fuel vehicles occupy charging positions is also a national problem.
Just like the test of the "Easy Car Horizontal Review" program, in the urban road conditions with a temperature below zero degrees in the north, the endurance of several electric vehicles is basically "broken bones". Imagine how bad it would be to wait for an hour in the cold wind to charge a tram without a home charge. And the frequency of charging the tram is much higher than the frequency of refueling the fuel car, which means that the oil car adds a tank of oil for 5 minutes, and the tram owner may have to charge twice or even more in the cold wind.
On the other hand, most used car dealers do not have the resources and ability to accurately test and evaluate battery performance and price, resulting in them not being active in used electric vehicles.
The author believes that the above are important reasons for the low retention rate of trams, but the fundamental one is that the frequency of tram upgrading is much faster than that of oil trucks, because trams are more inclined to follow Moore's Law. You can imagine the situation of electronic products such as smart phones, consumers are usually not willing to spend a high price to buy a second-hand mobile phone, then he will be willing to spend a high price to buy a second-hand car that has been rapidly iterated?
The oil car due to the engine, gearbox and other technology evolution is slower, which causes the iteration of the model is obviously slow, if not just encountered a replacement or medium-term major overhaul, a 2021 model of oil car, and a 2022 model of oil car, in essence, there is almost no difference.
Conclusion: Fragrant or not, does not depend solely on the price of oil
Back to the beginning of the article, regardless of whether Shen Hui said that 80,000 yuan is enough to buy four LV or Hermès, "5 years 100,000 kilometers charged than refueling save 80,000 yuan" This sentence itself has a premise: electricity does not rise, oil prices do not fall.
Who can guarantee that this premise will not change? After all, only two years ago, such an incredible thing as negative oil prices had happened, and in the second half of last year, the phenomenon of power curtailment in many parts of the country was only half a year ago.
As a consumer, the use of the vehicle experience is determined by many factors, the retention rate and everyone's car conditions, environment and preferences are different, which will affect the final car experience, is a multi-factor problem, but not only a single kilometer electricity / fuel problem, oil prices have risen, does not mean that the tram is really fragrant.
As an investor in the secondary market, you can't take it for granted that new energy vehicles will sell better than expected just because oil prices have risen, and the performance of related companies will definitely exceed expectations.