Value Catalog Webmaster Talk: Provide perspectives and think together
The station manager has a Tai Wei lai ES6, but he is not close to Wei Jun.
If there is anything special about this car, it must be his unique power exchange mode and BAAS (rent electricity).
The car entered his second-generation replacement power station, less than 5 minutes, fully charged and set off.
Lifetime free electricity replacement (the station manager mentioned the car in Li Bin's worst year, reverse investment, oh no, is a consumption).
Nowadays, oil prices are soaring, and the beauty of the station chief wool is nourished.
But to be honest, because 90% of the cars are running short distances, there is no need to change the power.
In fact, most of the car owners are similar, not many people run long distances every day.
This has forced the webmaster to doubt the profit prospects of the power exchange model.
Is the power exchange mode reliable?
In fact, Weilai's power exchange is not the first, and there have long been martyrs exploring the way in history.
Idle to rip off the story of the heroic righteousness of the martyrs.
In 2007, there was an Israeli named ShaiAgassi.
This man became famous at a young age, had a brilliant resume before entering the electric vehicle industry, and in 2001, at the age of 32, he sold the software company he founded to SAP and recorded 400 million knives.
As someone who grew up on an oil island, he has always believed that liberating cars from oil is one way to make the world a better place, and it is the only way to go.
After comparing electric and fuel cell vehicles, he decided that fuel cell vehicles are too far from commercial use, and the development of electric vehicle technology in 2007 is already a thousand miles.
Like all dreamers, Shai doesn't just want to make a little money, he doesn't lack it, he wants to change the world completely.
He made a vision:
Let electric vehicles have a market share of more than 95% in the automobile market. At this level, global carbon dioxide concentrations will begin to decline, air pollution will be greatly reduced, and the transportation crisis caused by oil depletion 50 years later will be greatly resolved.
The question is, how can the tram market share reach more than 95%?
Shai's answer is:
The biggest obstacle to the adoption of electric vehicles is basic charging facilities.
Shai's scheme is:
Provides a network for charging and battery swapping.
As for how he came to this conclusion, it is another story, which is omitted here.
But interestingly, the idea of changing the battery was musk's inspiration.
At that time, Shai dug a big bull from Google to conduct a survey, and the key conclusion was:
80% of a day's driving needs can be limited to 30-40 kilometers.
However, that 20% of medium- and long-distance driving was not solved by the battery technology and charging technology of electric vehicles at that time.
Shai was visiting Tesla at the time and mentioned the 20% problem.
Musk said that it really can't work, just change the battery.
It was this sentence that inspired Shai.
Shai founded Better Place in 2007 and the business plan came out.
Of course, his idea was shocking at the time.
There are many people who are not optimistic, such as the musk that handed over key ideas, and they did not pay a single one.
But the investment community knows that a Jew who comes out to do business will either die a miserable death or a lot of pots, but it is impossible for you to make him change his mind.
Later, Shai finds Uncle Carlos, a god-like presence in the automotive industry.
The latter led to a partnership between Better Place and Nissan to jointly develop the Israeli market, betterPlace to provide a recharge and swap network service, and the latter to provide electric vehicles, called Renault.
The Renault is a renault with a mediocre look
Oh, yes, there is chery joining in the later stage, that Chery in Wuhu, producing electric vehicles for it.
With the endorsement of the Great God, coupled with the Jewish business network, the money in the capital markets is endless.
In 2007, VantagePoint Venture, Israel Corp, Israel Cleantech Venture and Morgan Stanley jointly invested $111 million in a Series A round of financing for the world's largest startup at the time.
From 2010 to 2012, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered Bank, Israel Corp, GE, Swiss Bank.....
Almost $1 billion to $1.2 billion, and then it went off with a lot of fanfare.
Later, of course, the company went yellow.
What about yellow?
Posterity summary:
Mainly strategic assumptions loopholes.
His profitable scheme is to sell web services to make money, but underestimates the speed at which battery costs are falling and how quickly technology is advancing. Inventories of high-priced batteries have depreciated rapidly.
Better Place's starting point is to serve more than 90% coverage of electric vehicles, but the solutions required by the earliest customers must be very different from 90% coverage solutions.
In addition, the success of the Nissan Leaf in the US and Japanese markets in 2011 proved that there was no chicken and egg problem in the early market (electric vehicles require complex charging networks).
The more fatal problem is that Better Place relies too much on OEMs.
In fact, in the early market of electric vehicles, customers saw the value of electric vehicles themselves far more than all other peripheral products and services, including charging.
And the acceptance of the Renault electric car is far lower than Better Place expected.
This is called the wrong direction, trying to make a difference.
Then today, you will find that the market environment and the era of Better Place are completely different.
Today's tram market is not an early stage, but an accelerated introduction period.
Nowadays, the core contradiction of the tram market and the problem of insufficient infrastructure have become more obvious.
The rationale for this is:
As tram ownership increases, 20% demand for medium- and long-distance driving begins to increase to an order of magnitude and becomes profitable.
Compared with high-power fast charging at least 40 minutes, 10 minutes of power exchange, is heading for the air outlet.
This is not only the trend of market development, but also the direction of policy encouragement.
In the past two years, the "Government Work Report" has mentioned "increasing charging piles, substations and other facilities".
That is to say, the substation will develop together with the charging pile as a supporting facility in the future
On this point, you can recall the encouragement of charging facilities in the past few years, mainly financial support.
However, in all the policy support, the webmaster believes that the most important thing is the standard.
Unified standards can reduce the uncertainty of enterprise investment and make the business model clearer.
In October last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Pilot Work Notice", identifying 11 pilot substation cities.
As the first stage of the nationwide promotion of power exchange, the pilot city will accelerate the formation of replicable experience in the power exchange industry.
That is to say, the current standard is not uniform, but the arrow is on the string.
Once unified, the growth rate of substations will be further improved.
It is precisely because of the broad prospects that enterprises in the upper and middle reaches have laid out the field of power exchange operation.
At present, the replacement power station is mainly built by Weilai, Aodong New Energy and Hangzhou Botan.
There are others, such as Sinopec and GCL Energy
In the field of batteries, CATL is the most active, and has successively carried out vehicle-to-electricity separation projects with BAIC BJEV, Weilai and other companies.
Other battery factories also have them, which are not listed here.
In general, the current power exchange business operators are mainly divided into three categories:
Third-party power exchange operators represented by Aodong New Energy, Botan Technology and GCL Energy;
Automakers represented by NIO, BAIC BJEV, Geely, etc.;
As well as state-owned enterprises such as State Power Investment and Sinopec
Among them, car companies are in a core position in the power exchange industry.
Because the car company is a closed-loop operation, the substation only replaces the power for its own model, and other models are incompatible.
Although third-party operators can theoretically serve the entire car series, there are many objects that need to be cooperated, and the coordination cost is very high.
As for the specific profitability of the replacement power station, Tianfeng has a research report to calculate it.
They believe that the utilization rate of passenger car replacement power stations exceeds 25%, the return cycle of commercial heavy truck replacement stations is shorter, and the operational efficiency of more than 29% begins to be profitable.
The stationmaster believes that if the tram ownership reaches an order of magnitude, it is easier to make a profit.
Therefore, in the vehicle replacement mode, Weilai, which has a first-mover advantage, especially those who circled a good position in the early stage, actually has a very good prospect.
First of all, WEILAI participated in the preparation of power exchange industry standards, WEILAI led the preparation of 10435, 10436 and 33025 standards, and deeply participated in the preparation of 10434 and 33004 standards.
The second is that the number of future substations is absolutely leading, and the latest data is 850.
In other words, in the national standard, there is a high probability that Weilai's standard will be considered.
Therefore, in terms of individual stocks, the third-party GCL Energy, and Hanchuan Intelligence, which manufactures the power exchange system for the former.
It may not be as good as Shandong Weida, which has been deeply bound to Weilai.
Shandong Weida acquired in 2015 to carry out power exchange equipment research and development and technical reserves.
In 2017, kunshan Sway Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. was jointly established with NIO Energy.
Swopp is the main supplier of the Weilai replacement power station.
In May 2018, the WEILAI generation replacement power station developed by Swopp was put into operation.
As of October 2021, Shandong Weida is the exclusive supplier of WEILAI's second-generation substation.
According to NIO's 2025 plan, 4,000 substations will be built worldwide.
In addition to selling equipment, Shandong Weida also participated in Weineng Battery Company and began to get involved in the battery leasing business.
With the widespread acceptance of "separation of vehicle and electricity", Weida is trying to cooperate with other car companies.
Power exchange related research report recommendations:
"In-depth Research on Utilities- New Power System 1: Analysis of Power Exchange Mode-Tianfeng Securities [Guo Lili]-20220307[29 pages]"
"Electrical Equipment - Machinery & New Industry Power Exchange Series Depth One: Power Exchange Mode Greets dawn, equipment priority benefits-Changjiang Securities [Zhao Zhiyong, Ma Jun, Wu Bohua]-20220306 [24 pages]"
"Shandong Weida (002026) Global Power Tool Leader, Cutting into the New Energy Vehicle Replacement Circuit and Setting Sail-Guosheng Securities [Wang Lei, Yao Jian]-20211212 [25 pages]"
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