On March 15, "Deng Lun was chased and fined 106 million yuan for tax evasion" was on the hot search, and then Yunmi, Unilever and other brands terminated their contracts. According to Nanbu's incomplete statistics, last year, nearly 20 idol artists were deeply involved in the "collapse" incident, and when the brand side was looking for alternatives, "virtual people" became one of the alternatives.
Virtual people become the darlings of the market, which is fueled by the concept of metacosmology. Virtual people, who are regarded as an important landing form of the "meta-universe", take advantage of the momentum: Luo Tianyi sang on the stage of the Winter Olympics and the Spring Festival Gala, Liu Yexi sat on Douyin with 8.62 million fans, A-SOUL earned millions a month on the B station... It has attracted hundreds of millions of traffic attention, enterprise focus, and capital chase.
According to Tianyancha data, since last year, dozens of virtual person startups have been favored by head manufacturers or venture capital institutions, and the cumulative investment scale has exceeded 3 billion yuan. Under careful investigation, if the virtual person just changes the way to be an Internet celebrity, how can the value of 100 billion yuan be supported? How does the entire industry "get rid of the virtual to the real" in the business model?
Multiplying the east wind of the meta-universe, the virtual human suddenly emerged
Luo Tianyi.
Luo Tianyi, who shuttled through the major star camps and the New Year's Eve party, A-SOUL, who was active in online live broadcasting, Ling Ling, who galloped in the field of carrying goods, Hua Zhibing, a virtual female student at Tsinghua University, Liu Yexi, a beauty expert on Douyin, Xiao Yang, a virtual host of Hunan Satellite TV, Cui Xiaopan, a virtual employee of Vanke, and "Su Xiaomei" who landed on Beijing Satellite TV's Spring Festival Gala... More and more virtual people are coming.
Before the metaverse arrived, the virtual person caught fire first. Industry insiders believe that the components of the metaverse scene are mainly the digital environment and virtual people, the latter as the connection point between the real world and virtual space-time, will become the main participant of the metaverse scenes, and also an important entrance and underlying architecture of the metaverse.
At present, virtual people have a variety of classification methods, according to the classification of technology, virtual people can be divided into algorithm-driven (AI deep learning) and real-person-driven (motion capture); according to the visual dimension classification, virtual people can be divided into two-dimensional type and hyper-realistic type; according to the business model classification, can be divided into IP category (brand, idol, star twin, etc.) and non-IP class (service type, identity type).
According to the qubit "Digital Virtual Person Deep Industry Report" predicts that in 2030, the overall market size of digital virtual people in the mainland will reach 270 billion, of which identity digital virtual people (virtual idols, digital twins) dominate, about 175 billion, mainly due to the huge potential of virtual IP, about 147.4 billion yuan, service-oriented digital virtual people are relatively stable development, the scale is about 95 billion yuan. At present, the virtual idol business is forming a commercial cooperation model and market price similar to that of artists, and obtaining income through live broadcasting, endorsement, advertising and other businesses.
"Virtual people have reached a stage of rapid growth, technical means and market demand have achieved convergence", Nie Dongchen, partner of CCV of Genesis Partner Capital, told Nandu reporters, on the one hand, engine upgrades and technological breakthroughs have reduced the difficulty of virtual people production, on the other hand, the demand side scene is expanding, such as virtual idols can reduce the risk of negative news, fitness coaches, medical consultants and other tool-based virtual people can reduce costs and increase efficiency for the stock market.
Professor Gui Guiwu of Chinese Min University analyzed, "In addition to the innovation of technology and the promotion of capital, the audience's curiosity about the development of technology and new things and some of the characteristics and functions embodied in virtual people, such as not easy to make mistakes, can replace and liberate manpower, can be used for special scenes, good to get along with or good to summon, etc., also promote the fiery heat of virtual people." ”
In particular, the entertainment industry has successively exposed bad artists, promoting advertisers who pay for traffic to reflect on the safety of the spokesperson's image, and becoming interested in virtual idols that are not easy to "collapse". "Since last year, many brands have been in contact with virtual people, after all, problems such as taxation and collapse of human design are becoming more and more frequent," industry insiders told Nandu reporters.
According to data research agency Quest Mobile, 21 and 14 advertisers will participate in the hot marketing of meta-universes and virtual idols in 2021.
Capital Hunt, who bets on virtual people?
Compared with eye-catching virtual images, it should be noted that under the current technology, the production of virtual people, especially hyper-realistic virtual people, often needs to carry heavy costs.
Liang Zikang, CEO of Liu Yexi's production team Chuangyi Technology, told Nandu reporters that in the more than half a year before the launch of Liu Yexi, research and development costs, personnel costs, technical costs and other investments were about one million yuan, "The cost of the first short video of Liu Yexi in November last year was about hundreds of thousands of yuan, with the upgrading of technology and the integration of production processes, this year will reduce costs and increase efficiency."
Chen Yan, the founder of the sub-culture behind the virtual person "Lingling", once told the media that the cost of hyper-realistic virtual people's videos per second is in the range of 8,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan, and a picture costs several thousand yuan. In addition, some insiders said that the current cost of creating a virtual character image is about tens of millions, and the production of two-dimensional virtual idol videos costs thousands of yuan per second, not counting the operation, which leads to the vast majority of virtual person projects are on the road of continuous "burning money".
The virtual person "Lingling".
Industry insiders pointed out that most of the companies in the current virtual human track survive on investment, and some people even jokingly call virtual people "neither 2C (consumer-oriented), nor 2B (enterprise-oriented), but 2VC (venture-oriented). ”
Fortunately, since last year, the primary market of the virtual human track has been quite lively. According to Tianyancha data, from the beginning of 2021 to February 2022, there were 42 investment and financing incidents related to "virtual people" in China, and the relevant investors included Internet companies such as Tencent, NetEase, and Station B, as well as VC institutions such as Sequoia China, IDG, and GSR Venture Capital, with a cumulative investment scale of more than 3 billion yuan.
NIE Dongchen, a partner at CCV, divides the virtual person company into technology, IP and scene application layers, and the technology companies focus on the exploration of AI and digital engines, and the standard of measurement is technology leadership and commercialization ability; while the company that focuses on the virtual person IP business is similar to the brokerage company or MCN, focusing on its continuous launch of high-quality content and the strength of the operation of IP; the scene application is more instrumental and interactive, and the technology integration requirements are higher.
"If you only design virtual person IP and undertake virtual image, the ceiling of such companies is very low, we basically do not look at it, service-oriented virtual people are the future direction, but also need technical development to provide support," Nie Dongchen told Nandu reporter.
However, the virtual human ecological company Nishi Culture has received 3 consecutive rounds of financing in the past year, "although it is currently an IP image company, but the follow-up will be combined with more scenes, which is one of the reasons why it is selected among many virtual idol companies", said Nie Dongchen, a partner at CCV of Chuangshi Partner Capital, one of the investors.
According to the second world culture, the company plans to launch a new product called "VBS anthropomorphism", which will be officially launched in the second quarter of this year, with the mission of creating a "user digital identity generation system and a universal open ecosystem". With this system, the average user will be able to create a unique digital identity on their own.
Nandu reporter noted that from the perspective of the invested projects, few of the brokerage companies specializing in virtual idol operations have received investment, most of which are upstream companies in the technology industry chain and 2B solution providers. Industry insiders said that in the current situation that the industry is not particularly profitable, it is necessary to invest in the company that can "lead to the future".
In addition to venture capital institutions, the Internet giants that "move by the wind" also have different participation paths. The head comprehensive factory has a good foundation in technology precipitation, IP operation, traffic, prefer to explore the underlying technology, hardware architecture and tool products for the company's business applications, the industrial chain layout is relatively comprehensive, such as overseas Meta, Google, etc.; domestic Tencent, Ali, B station, NetEase, Baidu, Byte, etc., A-share media companies such as BlueFocus, Mango Super Media, etc. mainly involve the platform layer vertical solution provision and application layer.
Industry Watch
"From the virtual to the real", how to support the hundreds of billions of business?
From the perspective of income level, the darkflame website shows that the total income of virtual idols in February exceeded 70 million yuan, but the oligopoly phenomenon of two-dimensional virtual idols is serious, on March 6, on the birthday live broadcast of the top stream "Jiaran", less than 3 hours of live broadcast brought nearly 2.6 million yuan in revenue, and according to Vtbs real-time data, more than half of the virtual anchors of Station B have no or only single-digit captains, and the income is meager.
Lehua's prospectus shows that its pan-entertainment business revenue will increase to 37.9 million yuan in 2021, nearly doubling year-on-year, mainly due to the commercial development of its virtual artist group A-SOUL.
However, practitioners said that there are many virtual people in the dream entertainment circle, but only a few people who are well known to the public or have recently left the circle are Luo Tianyi, A-SOUL, Liu Yexi, etc., and the threshold still exists. "The linkage price of a brand of Luo Tianyi is almost 1.5 million, and the endorsement fee is as high as 10 million a year, but it cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build Luo Tianyi, and the pressure of the cost is there," Zang Lang, producer of Shanghai Bingguo Digital Media Technology Co., Ltd., told Nandu reporters that The success of Luo Tianyi has its own era and opportunity, and the possibility of capital reconstruction is unlikely.
Pan Helin, a researcher and co-director of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center at Zhejiang University's International United Business School, believes that virtual people currently need to conform to functional settings, such as Hatsune Mirai, Luo Tianyi, etc., and their focus is to create an idol and attract more traffic, and its goal is user traffic, not to have an idol. The biggest problem with the current virtual people is that they do not generate enough traffic, and many virtual people do not meet the psychological needs of users in the production process.
"The reason is that traditional brokerage companies know where their users are, but for virtual person content, the user's label is not so clear, how to find the user base of virtual people and improve their conversion rate is the current difficulty," Zang Lang told Nandu reporter.
Liang Zikang told nandu reporters that after Liu Yexi went out of the circle, many brands came to the door, "if you want to do traditional commercialization, advertising, endorsements, etc. can be done immediately, but we are also thinking about how to innovate in the tradition, in addition to sophisticated content, tide play, digital assets, etc. can be the direction, and how to combine with other scenes such as cultural tourism."
In the "future" imagined by investors, virtual people are not just a substitute for influencers or KOLs, but should be personal assistants in the real world, NPCs in the virtual world, or digital twins that everyone has.
Nie Dongchen believes that service-oriented virtual people are closer to demand, and the future space will be broader, such as news broadcasting, daily accompaniment, business guidance, and find business in finance, smart cars, medical care, fitness and other industries.
In addition, today's digital virtual people are waiting for the development of technology to make them more commercially possible, but this is not the only focus of the digital virtual people on the track, while the development of technology, the definition of the ethical level and the development of practical application capabilities are equally important.
Gao Guiwu believes: "Theoretically, the degree and scope of virtual people involving real people's lives, how to define the main responsibility of virtual people, and the technical ethics of virtual people in use need to be further determined and clarified. At the practical level, how to improve the instrumental functions of virtual people, how to deal with the relationship between virtual people and real people in work, and how to grasp the degree of proximity between virtual people and real people need to be further standardized and improved. ”
Written by: Nandu reporter Ye Lu intern Duan Xinyu