Image source @ Visual China
Wen | Shi Tianhao
In recent years, the entertainment industry has not been peaceful, and celebrities have collapsed and overturned. Not long ago, Deng Lun, who has always been popular with fans, was on Weibo for tax evasion, and the local tax department pursued Deng Lun for paying taxes, charging late fees and imposing fines, totaling 106 million. Deng Lun's commercial value has collapsed completely, and although many brands have terminated their contracts, they are still facing a lot of losses.
In the face of the high risk of real idols, brands have also turned their eyes and put more energy into virtual idols. As early as 1962, Bell Labs gave birth to the first singing IBM 709 computer in human history, which formed the earliest concept of virtual idol; in 1990, the Japanese animation producer produced and released an album based on the image of the heroine Lin Mingmei in "Chrono Fortress", creating the prototype of the virtual idol. Since then, virtual idols have mushroomed in the public's field of vision: popular idols E Shin Shin, Hatsune Mirai, Luo Tianyi, Trip Love and so on.
On the one hand, there is a constant storm of real idols, and on the other hand, virtual idols appear frequently. So, will the risk of real idols become an opportunity for virtual idols to explode? Will it be a new outlet?
Idol watershed: real people down, virtual up
In fact, under careful combing, you will find that in recent years, various scandals in the entertainment industry are not in the minority, and the actions of the personnel involved have finally been hammered, some have eventually been boycotted by the industry, some have been punished by the law, some have taken the initiative to withdraw from the circle, and some have been condemned by the whole people.
2021 is the "year of collapse" in the entertainment industry, Zheng Shuang was banned because of the surrogacy storm, sky-high film remuneration, and tax issues; Wu Yifan was imprisoned for rape; Huo Zun collapsed because of insulting women, connotation peers, and other people; Zhang Zhehan was pulled out of the "Yasukuni Shrine" for several consecutive years, visited the "Nogi Shrine" and took a photo with a smile to challenge the national righteousness; Zhao Wei and his wife were suspected of violating the securities market and all related works were removed from shelves; Li Yundi was administratively detained by the Chaoyang Public Security Bureau for prostitution.
At the same time, between 2019 and 2020, Wei Ya, the former "sister with goods", evaded taxes of 643 million yuan and other underpaid taxes by concealing personal income, fictitious business conversion income nature false declarations, etc., and made tax administrative treatment penalty decisions against Huang Wei in accordance with the law, recovering taxes, collecting late fees and imposing fines totaling 1.341 billion yuan. On December 20, 2021, after Wei Ya apologized for tax evasion, her accounts on Taobao, Douyin, Weibo and other platforms were blocked.
These negative events not only ruin the future of celebrities and anchors, but also cast a shadow on the brand image of their endorsement and cooperation, resulting in a great reduction in the brand's favorability in the hearts of users. And pile by pile, one after another overturned, can't help but make brand owners start to think about other more secure paths, and virtual idols have become a substitute for real idols, and many brands choose to use virtual idols as their own endorsements.
In the car industry circle, after Porsche's spokesperson lost his morality and withdrew from the circle, the brand invested in Wanxiang Technology to create a "spokesperson" that would not overturn the car. As early as 2011, virtual singer Hatsune Mirai became the spokesperson of Toyota Corolla 2011; in September 2021, MG ONE, the original virtual spokesperson of SAIC MG MG, appeared, allowing the company to harvest a wave of heat.
Not only in the car industry, the FMCG industry is also using virtual idols to "live the whole life". In recent years, KFC has transformed into a fashionable and handsome virtual idol in order to cater to the young market and a kind grandfather spokesperson. The well-known domestic brand HuaXizi presents Chinese makeup and oriental beauty to the world through the digital person "Huaxizi" and promotes its own brand concept. Watsons created an exclusive avatar "Qu Chenxi" to endorse the brand.
Virtual idols have also grown rapidly under multiple exposures, and their commercial value and status were once comparable to those of real stars, such as the popular virtual artist group A-SOUL, which was jointly created by Byte and Lehua, which is composed of five digital virtual characters and officially debuted in 2020. Through a series of forms such as singles and MVs, it has attracted the attention of young people on platforms such as Douyin and B station, and has successfully become one of the top 100 UP masters of B station and ranked among the top streams of virtual idols.
At the same time, A-SOUL's commercial monetization ability is also very impressive. According to the lehua entertainment prospectus, A-SOUL, which exploded in 2021, single-handedly helped Lehua's pan-entertainment business grow by 79.6%, from 21 million yuan to 37.9 million yuan, increasing revenue by more than 16 million yuan and gross profit margin of 77.7%. Although the income is far less than that of Wang Yibo, accounting for only 2.9% of the total revenue in 2021, the growth rate and imagination space are not small. This also allows Lehua Entertainment to plan to increase investment in the operation and commercial development of virtual artists, and create more profit margins through live streaming, virtual concerts and endorsement derivatives.
On the whole, it can be found that the idol market has come to a watershed, and the risk of real idols has risen sharply under the test of private morality and taxation, which also makes brands prohibitive. In contrast, virtual idols have higher security, as well as a sense of technology and cross-dimensional freshness, which has become a good medicine under the marketing needs of many brand owners. Because of the general choice of brand owners, real idols are sinking, while virtual idols are on the rise.
Contrary to the road, virtual idols have become the traffic password of brand owners, so is the factor that promotes the development of virtual idols only because of the loss of real idol behavior? I think it's not just one factor, there are other reasons behind it.
The "triple factor" creates potential markets
Virtual idols can go all the way up, not only because of the opportunities brought about by the collapse of real idols, but also because of the combined efforts of users, environments, and technologies behind them.
1. Generation Z has high user penetration and large demand; under the influence of two-dimensional culture, Generation Z after 95 and 00 is the largest audience group of virtual idols. According to the "2019 Virtual Idol Observation Report" released by iQIYI, 390 million people in China are on the way to pay attention to virtual idols and pay attention to virtual idols, and the penetration rate of virtual idols among young people after 95-05 is as high as 64%. The consumption power of young people is obvious to all, and the data of the "2019 Generation Z Consumption Power White Paper" released by Tencent shows that China's Generation Z population has reached 149 million people, which will account for 40% of the overall consumption power by 2020, and the proportion will increase year by year.
Strong consumption power, dare to earn and dare to spend is the consumption characteristics of Generation Z, and the willingness to pay for hobbies is also the main consumption characteristic of Generation Z. According to the 2021 Chinese virtual idol enthusiast portrait released by Ai Media Consulting, 92.3% of virtual idol fans are middle- and high-income groups between the ages of 19-30, 80% of consumers spend less than 1,000 yuan per month for virtual idols, and 37.6% of consumers are willing to spend more money and energy to support virtual idols. Overall, the young consumer group has a very positive attitude towards virtual idols, which has laid a solid user base for the development of the track.
2, VR virtual reality, AR augmented reality technology rapid development; with the continuous maturity of VR virtual reality, AR augmented reality, computer graphics technology, AI technology, real-time rendering and other application technologies, virtual idols are developing rapidly, is appearing in front of people's eyes in another form of almost real people, which also means the arrival of the virtual idol 3.0 era. Li Shiyan, head of Baidu's intelligent cloud AI human-computer interaction laboratory, once said that virtual people have experienced the 1.0 stage represented by "paper people" and the 2.0 era represented by Vtuber (virtual anchors), and have evolved to the 3.0 stage, and their modeling and content production have AI participation and can be oriented to group users.
Indeed, many virtual influencers are currently active on many social platforms, and these influencers, like real internet celebrities, regularly post photos and videos of their status, and share their lives with fans. For example, on Instagram sits millions of fans Lil Miquela, the 20-year-old Brazilian Spanish mixed-race girl who is essentially a three-dimensional animation created by Trevor McFedries and Sara Decou, touted as the first computer-made CG fashion icon in history. And the first MetaHuman (hyper-realistic digital person) built on Unreal Engine in China, AYAYI officially debuted in Xiaohongshu with an image with a strong light and shadow. At the same time, because she has a more realistic image, she quickly became popular on major social platforms, not only reaching cooperation with luxury brands such as Guerlain and LV, but also joining Ali.
3. The blessing of the concept of meta-universe has promoted the continuous heating up of the track; in recent years, the concept of meta-universe has exploded, and the development of virtual idols coincides with the concept of meta-universe, prompting the track to heat up. According to the "2022 China Consumption Trend Report" recently released by Zhimeng Consulting Agency, the metacosm opens up consumers' future imagination of connecting virtual and reality anytime and anywhere with full senses, immersive and open networks. At the moment when the concept of "meta-universe" is on fire, brands are also innovating in content and marketing through virtual and real interconnection, and Internet giants have taken advantage of the opportunity to create virtual people.
The marketing of brands has been introduced earlier, specifically look at the layout of the giants. As a two-dimensional cultural development and growth of station B is building a virtual idol industry chain, not only acquired Shanghai Henian, becoming the largest virtual idol community in China, but also accelerating the layout of the whole industry chain through shareholding and other ways. Tencent uses its own virtual idols to develop full-link online dramas, movies and games; Alibaba uses virtual anchors to help promote content e-commerce, in addition, it also actively promotes the establishment of celebrity avatars. Although the giants have different paths, the minds of the competitors are surprisingly consistent.
The increase in demand for entertainment, the continuous iteration of technologies such as AI, and the boom in the metacosm have all had an impact on the development of the virtual idol industry and further expanded the virtual idol market. According to Ai Media Consulting data, the core industry market size of virtual idols in 2020 has reached 3.46 billion yuan, and it was predicted that the Chinese market size will reach 6.22 billion yuan in 2021 and 20.55 billion yuan in 2023. It can be seen that the track has room for development.
At the same time, the majestic market and huge potential have also attracted various venture capitals to pour into the virtual idol industry. According to incomplete statistics from Tianyancha, as of December 28, 2021, start-ups in the virtual idol field have received 25 financings, ranging from millions of yuan to tens of millions of dollars, and star institutions such as Genesis Partner Capital, Vientiane Culture, NetEase Capital, Shunwei Capital, and GSR Venture Capital have entered the game.
Judging from the above indications, the popularity of virtual idols is not accidental, but inevitable under multiple factors. Although the enthusiasm of the outside world makes the virtual idol look like a wind outlet ready to go, but calm down and analyze it will find that the road to the virtual idol is blocked and long.
An uncertain fate under the test of ice and fire
The virtual idol track has grown rapidly under the influence of multiple factors, but it still faces the test of ice and fire, and its fate is uncertain under the test.
On the one hand, the advantages of virtual idols such as controllability, security, freshness, and technology have become the main reasons for the favor of the outside world; because virtual idols are originally built according to users' preferences and preset goals, it is easier to get users' love. At the same time, the character, words and deeds of virtual idols are controlled by the brand side, which has higher controllability and security than real idols with subjective initiative. In addition, the freshness and sense of technology of virtual idols can also be extended and applied in more diversified virtual scenes to achieve multi-circle layer communication and help brand communication to quickly go out of the circle.
But on the other hand, the high cost of virtual idols, difficulties in going out of the circle, and difficulty in commercialization have also become obstacles to their development; separately, first of all, the cost of virtual idols in all aspects is very high. The technology mentioned above alone is a considerable amount of research and development costs, and the production cost is very high. But research and development is still just the beginning, followed by packaging, operation, etc., every link is very expensive. For example, for virtual idols like Hatsune Mirai or Luo Tianyi, the production cost of a single is 2 million yuan, and the cost of a virtual idol concert is at least 20 million yuan. The investment required to cultivate a virtual idol is no less than that of cultivating a real idol, and even higher than the cost of cultivating a real idol.
Secondly, the Matthew effect in the virtual idol circle is also significant, and it is difficult for the waist and tail IP to break the circle. Although the virtual idol is a hundred flowers blooming, but the real fire is not much, can be known only to be active in the major parties of the singer Hatsune Mirai, Luo Tianyi, the girl group A-SOUL, AYAYI, Hunan Satellite TV's newly hired Xiao Yang, etc. Few, most of the virtual idols are still precarious, as mentioned in the "Ai Media Consulting | 2021 China Virtual Idol Industry Development and Netizen Investigation and Research Report": Similar to Luo Tianyi, A-SOUL, such as the high production and operating costs of virtual idols, The entry threshold is also higher. Although the head IP is booming, it is difficult for the waist and tail IP to break the circle.
Finally, many virtual idols do not have the ability to monetize commercially. Fan economy is the most important means of monetization of virtual idols, when the head IP through performances, peripherals, licensing, etc. to obtain revenue, waist and tail IP is likely to lack a stable fan base, resulting in the inability to accumulate huge traffic, the commercialization process is difficult. According to the research report of the Head Leopard Research Institute, there are currently tens of thousands of virtual idols in China, but less than 30% of them can achieve profitability. Relevant statistics also show that as of August 2021, there are 3472 virtual idols with high or low attention on Station B, but 1827 of them have zero income for the month. This all shows that most virtual idols are still struggling to achieve profitability.
Under careful investigation, problems such as high cost, difficulty in going out of the circle, and difficulty in realizing have become the shackles of the outlet, and the virtual idol industry also needs to find the key to solve the problem to get rid of the shackles.
At the moment of stricter supervision, virtual idols have become a new choice for brands to avoid risks, although many factors and external forces make the virtual idol track look full of imagination, but under the obstacles, it is still a long way from the real outbreak. In general, the virtual idol outlet is not yet coming, and it still needs to be cultivated.