The haze of supply chain instability has not dissipated, and the automobile industry is encountering a new round of "crisis" of lack of cores.
Recently, the Association announced the February Retail Sales Express. Among the top ten manufacturers in terms of retail sales, in addition to BYD's strong growth, 8 showed a year-on-year decline.
Among them, the retail sales of North and South Volkswagen in February fell by 9.6% and 19% year-on-year, respectively, changan automobile retail sales fell by 37.6%, and Great Wall Motors also fell by 18.3%. Saic-GM, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Geely and Dongfeng Nissan have also declined to varying degrees.
In the view of Kung Fu Automobile, the general decline in terminal sales in February was mainly caused by the restriction of the supply side. Among them, the shortage of parts and components involving vehicle specification chips is particularly prominent.
According to the official information of Great Wall Motor, the company's sales decline in February was mainly limited by the insufficient supply of ESP produced by Bosch in Suzhou. Sources also revealed to Kung Fu Automobile that the shortage of parts including Bosch airbag controllers and EPBI has prompted Changan Automobile to decline in production in February and led to a shortage of terminal sales resources. Coincidentally, GAC Trumpchi also issued an announcement that the global chip shortage has had a certain impact on the production and delivery of its M8 and Shadow Leopard models.
According to industry analysts, unfavorable factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, soaring raw material prices, and soaring logistics costs will continue to exacerbate the volatility of the supply chain. Production cuts and productions of auto companies around the world are emerging in an endless stream. Volkswagen's head of purchasing also said in an interview with the media: "The shortage of chips in the global automotive industry will not be resolved in 2022. ”
In fact, although the mainland automobile industry chain is relatively complete, it is still impossible to stand alone. It is not difficult to find that the general decline in retail sales of head car companies in February is not difficult to find that the pain caused by "lack of core" is more serious than consumers imagine.
Coupled with the "hype" of some supplier channels, some OEMs irrationally "grabbed the core", which further aggravated the "chaos" of the industry's chip shortage. Affected by this, many products have also experienced problems such as price increases and allocation reductions.
In the face of a new round of lack of core crisis, how to open a "new situation" from the "chaos" has become a "compulsory course" that the industry needs to face together.
(1) There is always a silver edge behind the dark clouds: optimize the sales structure and replace "high quantity" with "high quality"
As we all know, car specification chips have always been the "short board" of the mainland automobile industry. In recent years, although the state and the industry have increased their research and development and investment in automotive chip products, the corresponding results still need a long time to appear.
Because the automotive industry has extremely stringent requirements for safety and reliability, the supply chain of automotive chip is long and stable, and it is very difficult for the industry to make adjustments in the short term.
According to the Kung Fu Automobile survey, in the environment of continuous chip shortage, some mainstream car companies are allocating production capacity to supply limited chips to models with high added value and are welcomed by the market. Taking Guangqi Honda as an example, during the period when the core shortage problem is more serious, the production capacity of accord will be taken care of first, while entry-level models such as Fit and Lingpai will relatively reduce scheduling.
At the same time, some car companies have chosen to drive sales with low-cost entry-level models to dilute the impact of the lack of cores. On the one hand, this is because the configuration of low-cost entry-level models is often simpler and the dependence on chips is lower; on the other hand, large-scale production can also maintain the overall profit of the company to a certain extent.
However, in the long run, this approach will also be detrimental to the health of the sales structure of brands and businesses. Especially when the market adapts to the lower transaction price of the model, it will be more difficult to improve later. In this regard, a car company source told Kung Fu Automobile: "This is really a helpless move, knowing that it is 'drinking and quenching thirst', but surviving is the most important." ”
Of course, not all companies will take this approach.
As the Western proverb goes, "There is always a silver edge behind a dark cloud." ”
Although the chip crisis will significantly increase the sales pressure of enterprises, it is objectively also a good opportunity for car companies to adjust their sales structure and promote the high-quality development of the industry.
As an example, under the double test of the epidemic and lack of core, companies have actively adjusted their product structures and launched high-end products including Oncovie S and Oncovie PLUS to cope with changes in the market environment.
According to Kung Fu Automobile's visit to the first-line market, new products such as 2.0T Buick Encore S and Oncovey PLUS have successfully replaced the position of the 1.5T Encore in the past, which was quite "moving".
"The upgrade of product power can be felt by everyone. And in the environment of lack of cores and rising car prices, everyone's sensitivity to price is decreasing, but more attention is paid to the product experience itself. A Buick dealer told Kung Fu Cars.
If we say that the current complex market environment allows more companies to unconsciously join the "inner volume" of "price for volume". Then, the sober SAIC-GM is taking advantage of changes in the general environment to accelerate the "low-dimensional" competition of the fierce price war.
By upgrading its product strength and providing more valuable products, SAIC-GM will lose some of the sales of entry-level products in the short term. But this will also improve the sales structure of enterprises, help them achieve high-quality development, and get out of line with the pace of long-term development of enterprises.
SAIC-GM's solution of focusing on improving the product system and sales structure "gold content" is undoubtedly worth learning from the industry.
(2) The chip dilemma will eventually be solved: the company that takes the lead in adjusting the pace will win at the "turning point"
Although the lack of cores will continue to plague the development of the automotive industry for a period of time, the current "zero-sum game" dilemma caused by chip shortages will eventually be solved.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the world's major chip companies have increased the production and supply of vehicle-grade chips, and the new production capacity will be released this year, and the supply capacity of some domestic chip products is also gradually improving, and it is expected that the supply situation of automotive chips will continue to improve.
Therefore, for major car companies in the industry competition, instead of only focusing on their opponents and damaging the long-term brand health in order to protect market share, it is better to take the lead in adjusting their own pace in the chaos.
In this process, the upgrading and improvement of supply chain management is of course the most important. However, for enterprises, how to make their products and sales systems more adaptable to changes in the market environment, so as to hone a stronger system is also the key.
Only such a company can win at the "turning point".
In the view of Kung Fu Automobile, a group of head car companies represented by the above automobile GM are showing strong market adaptability. Positive changes are evident in sales as early as 2021.
For the whole of last year, SAIC-GM's Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac brands sold a total of 1,331,567 units, with a market share of 6.3%. What is more gratifying is that SAIC-GM's high-end products account for more than 5% of the increase compared with 2020, and the average transaction price of each brand has also increased by 6%-16%.
Taking the Cadillac brand as an example, the data shows that in February this year, the sales of the brand's popular sedan CT5 accounted for 95% of the sales, while the SUV XT5 accounted for 98% of the high-end model sales. If chip supply returns to normal, it is not difficult to expect that the sales of the CT5 and XT5 will be expected to compete with the BBA's similar models.
At the same time, the proportion of high-end model sales of car companies including Geely, BYD, and GAC Toyota is also steadily increasing. The reason is that in addition to the adjustment of product structure, the flexible market adaptability of these enterprises also helps them to show a strong balance in a complex and changing environment like Lingbo microsteps.
(3) Kung Fu shooting
Churchill once said, "Never waste a crisis." ”
A crisis can make us truly feel the end of one era, but perhaps the beginning of another.
Not afraid of floating clouds to cover the eyes, chaotic clouds flying across is still calm.
In the market "chaos" caused by the lack of core, car companies are not afraid of short-term challenges, and strong strategic determination and flexible resilience are the keys to opening a "new situation".