"Although the situation of epidemic prevention and control is grim, the public does not have to panic too much."
Written by | Tian Dongliang
Source | "Medical Community" public account
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, China has once again entered a severe stage, and even Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University in Shanghai, has written that this is "the most difficult period in the two years since the fight against the epidemic".
This can also be seen from the daily epidemic notification information on the official website of the National Health and Health Commission, which has many confirmed cases of the epidemic and a wide range of epidemic-related areas. On March 13, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 1,337 new locally confirmed cases and 788 new local asymptomatic infected people. There were new cases in Jilin Province, Shandong Province, Guangdong Province, Shaanxi Province, Hebei Province, Shanghai Municipality, Tianjin Municipality, Jiangsu Province, Gansu Province, Fujian Province, Liaoning Province, Heilongjiang Province, Beijing Municipality, Zhejiang Province, Chongqing Municipality, Yunnan Province, and Guangxi.
Although the new confirmed cases in many provinces and cities are still in the single digits, they cannot be taken lightly. Zhang Wenhong pointed out in the post that the Aomi Kerong BA.2 is very fast, and most of the mainland and Hong Kong are this strain. It took only more than a month for Hong Kong to break through the prevention of 1 case to be completely out of control.
Prevention and control measures have been tightened in many places
Affected by this round of epidemics, on March 14, the railway department introduced a free refund measure.
"Immediately, passengers will not be charged a refund fee for the valid tickets purchased before 00:00 on March 15, 2022 at the station, the 12306 website and other channels, and the purchase of railway insurance and Internet ordering will be handled together."
Jilin is the province with the largest number of new cases in this round of the epidemic, from March 1 to 24:00 on March 13, there have been 2,954 new confirmed cases and 1,661 asymptomatic infected people. At present, all primary and secondary schools and kindergartens in Jilin Province have been suspended, and online teaching has been carried out at home.
On March 14, the official microblog of the Information Office of the People's Government of Jilin Province (Jilin Release) issued the "Notice on Prohibiting Inter-Provincial and Inter-Regional Movement": from March 14, 2022, the movement of people from the province across provinces and regions is prohibited. If you need to go out under special circumstances, please register at the local police station and isolate and control in accordance with the relevant provisions of epidemic prevention and control after returning. Where the above provisions are violated, the relevant departments will pursue responsibility in accordance with law and discipline.
Jilin is also the only province in the mainland that is currently building a cabin hospital, according to Xinhua news, Jilin City has put into use 3 cabin hospitals, a total of nearly 1200 beds, and is stepping up the construction of 3 additional cabin hospitals, with a total of 10,000 beds, two of which are expected to be put into use on March 14.
Jilin is urgently building a square cabin hospital, and the picture is taken from the live video of the People's Daily client
Shenzhen is also one of the cities with a serious outbreak, with 75 new locally confirmed cases and 11 local asymptomatic infected people on March 13. Shenzhen is facing a "three-front" simultaneous battle situation - to stop the local epidemic, support Hong Kong's fight against the epidemic, and ensure the smooth and orderly operation of the city.
At present, Shenzhen has pressed the "slow line button":
The city's buses and subways were suspended. The city's community communities, urban villages, and industrial parks implement closed management. The city's personnel are not necessarily deep, and if they do have special needs, they will all be certified to be deep by 24-hour nucleic acid negative.
Except for public service enterprises that guarantee the basic operation of citizens' lives and cities and hong Kong supply enterprises, all enterprises work from home and suspend production and operation activities. Except for supermarkets (including farmers' markets), pharmacies, medical institutions, and catering enterprises (which only provide express delivery services) that protect the basic needs of the public, other business premises and stores are closed.
In order to find out all potential sources of infection as soon as possible and achieve "zero clearance" of social cases, Shenzhen will carry out three rounds of nucleic acid testing for all employees in the city from March 14 to 20.
Since March 14, Shenzhen "120" has only dispatched ambulances to the following groups: 1. acute and critical illness; 2. positive nucleic acid test for the new crown virus; 3. Sealing and control areas and control areas that need medical treatment after assessment. In other cases, citizens drive private cars or call online ride-hailing cars and taxis, and go to the nearest medical institution with a 24-hour negative nucleic acid result.
Shanghai yesterday confirmed 41 new local cases, involving 12 districts. In the face of this round of epidemics, Shanghai has also issued a rare notice that "citizens do not leave Shanghai unless necessary", and at the same time, from March 14, all Shanghai passenger terminals will be suspended.
The epidemic in Shanghai is the most concerned and conjecturing is the Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital, there is a lot of news on the Internet, it is difficult to distinguish between true and false, and there are also videos of physical conflicts between the medical staff of the hospital on the Internet.
In the early morning of March 14, the Sixth People's Hospital of Shanghai released a "fact sheet" on the online video through the official micro-blog, "After investigation, there is indeed something wrong, and we are deeply guilty about it." The hospital is currently investigating the matter. ”
At the press conference on the prevention and control of the epidemic held in Shanghai on the afternoon of the 14th, the situation of the Sixth Hospital of Shanghai was explained again: after investigation, the medical staff in the emergency room of the Sixth Hospital of the City did have a physical conflict, and the specific situation is still under in-depth investigation. At the same time, we have also noticed some situations reflected by medical staff, during the closed management of the hospital, they still have to undertake a large number of inpatient treatment work, and at the same time face the task of emergency handling of the epidemic, and the work intensity and pressure are very large. In this regard, we have urged the hospital to do its best to do a good job in the care and service guarantee of medical staff.
"The domestic epidemic is in the early stage of exponential rise"
For this round of epidemic after the Spring Festival, Zhang Wenhong believes that "it is currently in the early stage of exponential rise".
Zhang Wenhong's team found from the monitoring data on the number of new crown infection cases in China: throughout February, the mainland has been in a low-level epidemic of national sporadic cases, but it has been well controlled, and the total number of cases is within 200 cases. However, since the beginning of March, it has taken only 11 days from 119 cases per day on March 1 to 3122 cases per day on March 12, which has occurred under the situation of national active monitoring and prevention and control of the new crown.
Shanghai, which has always been known for its "precise prevention and control", also "appears to be a little flustered" this time, "Shanghai in this time of the spread of the Aomi Kerong BA.2, due to the sudden occurrence, late start, the virus spread fast, is still in the stage of running with the virus, feel very difficult." Zhang Wenhong wrote.
Although the situation of epidemic prevention and control is grim, the public does not have to panic too much. After hours of discussions with virologists at the University of Hong Kong, Zhang Wenhong said, "For the future." We all have a high degree of agreement":
1, the virulence of the virus is really significantly reduced. In addition to being a high-risk factor in the cases of this outbreak in Hong Kong, the vast majority of cases of death in this round of the epidemic have obvious underlying diseases. As long as it is immune function is normal and has been vaccinated, no matter what kind of vaccine, as long as it is strengthened, it is basically fine.
2, the rate of severe illness and mortality is really lower than the flu. Of the 2,266 cases admitted to Shanghai in the past six months, most of them were imported cases from overseas, and 94% had been vaccinated. Of these 2266 patients, only 0.1% were severe, and none were critically ill (requiring intubation) or death.
3, not vaccinated is not necessarily a problem, but the vast majority of things are not vaccinated. According to the analysis of the mortality rate of the epidemic in Hong Kong, the overall mortality rate of people with one dose or no vaccination is 2.03%, which is 23 times different from the 0.09% of people who receive two doses.
4. The lethality of new crown pneumonia in the UK has been lower than that of influenza. Since Omiljung has become mild, in countries that have achieved widespread vaccination and natural infection rates, the coronavirus may now be less deadly than the flu.
Nevertheless, Zhang Wenhong believes that if China opens up rapidly now, it will cause a large number of people to be infected in a short period of time, and even the lowest case fatality rate will cause a run in medical resources and a temporary shock in social life, causing irreparable harm to society and families.
In addition, people with advanced age and underlying diseases on the mainland have not yet been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, "once widespread infection, the consequences are unimaginable." Zhang Wenhong wrote, "Recently, the mainland continues to adopt a social zero-elimination strategy, and it is very important to suppress the fifth wave of the epidemic in The extremely fast-spreading Amy Kerong at a completely controllable level." But that doesn't mean we're going to be a permanent lockdown and full-testing strategy. ”
Source: Medical community
Editor-in-charge: Zheng Huaju
Proofreader: Zang Hengjia
Plate making: Xue Jiao