Core view - focus on major events in the industry at home and abroad, gather the views of Chinese and foreign celebrities and experts, analyze the development of the industry, and take you to understand the future trend!
Jiwei Network reported that in the past two days, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified and ignited the flames of war, because Ukraine is a large supplier of semiconductor raw gases such as neon, argon, krypton, xenon and so on, of which nearly 70% of the world's neon gas is supplied by Ukraine. In addition, Russia is one of the suppliers of palladium, a key element in the manufacture of sensors and memory. After Russia officially entered Ukraine, the United States, Japan, South Korea, the European Union, Australia, Taiwan and other countries or regions have introduced new export controls to Russia, including restrictions on semiconductor exports.
Based on this, a question on "What is the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the global semiconductor industry chain?" "The discussion struck.
The United States, Japan and other countries have imposed new export controls on Russia
IN ADDITION TO RUSSIA'S LARGEST BANKS AND STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, US PRESIDENT BIDEN ANNOUNCED A NEW ROUND OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA, WHICH WILL ALSO RESTRICT RUSSIA'S ABILITY TO TRADE IN DOLLARS, EUROS, POUNDS AND YEN, FREEZE ALL RUSSIAN ASSETS IN THE UNITED STATES, RESTRICT EXPORTS OF HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS TO RUSSIA, AND SUSPEND THE RUSSIAN MILITARY'S ABILITY TO OBTAIN FUNDS AND EXPAND.
Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio slammed Russia's actions as a violation of international law and said it would increase sanctions against Russia. Sanctions include sanctions against Russian individuals and groups through asset freezes and visa suspensions; sanctions in the financial sector such as asset freezes on Russian financial institutions; exports targeting Russian military-related groups; and exports of semiconductors, etc., which will be controlled on the basis of an internationally agreed control list.
European Commission President von der Leyen said, "The EU is restricting Russia's access to the most important technologies, such as semiconductors or cutting-edge technologies, which are what Russia needs to ensure a prosperous future." ”
In addition, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan and other countries or regions also said that they will work with partners to carry out a series of sanctions and continue to increase pressure on Russia, but did not disclose specific rules.
Source: Reuters
What is the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the industrial chain?
SIA: Does not trigger immediate global semiconductor supply chain risks
The American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) released President and CEO John Neuffer in a statement stating: "The U.S. semiconductor industry fully embraces and complies with the new export control rules for Russia in response to the deeply disturbing events in Ukraine. We are still reviewing the new rules to determine the impact of this matter on the semiconductor industry. According to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS), while the impact of the new rules on Russia could be significant, Russia is not a significant direct consumer of semiconductors, accounting for less than 0.1% of global chip purchases. According to IDC data in 2021, of the $4.47 trillion ICT global market, the Russian market in the broad sense totals only about $50.3 billion. In addition, the semiconductor industry has a diverse mix of key materials and gas suppliers, so we do not believe there is a risk of immediate supply disruptions associated with Russia and Ukraine. ”
Researcher: Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturers have safe inventories and diversified supply
Liu Peizhen, researcher and director of the Taiwan Academy of Economics And Economic Database, believes that the impact is very limited, in 2021, Russia accounts for only NT$560 million in the overall export amount of semiconductors in Taiwan, and the proportion is only 0.01%, although Russia masters a high ratio of gases and precious metals required for semiconductor-related processes, it is understood that the inventory of major manufacturers in Taiwan has almost a six-month safety period and has a number of supplier countries.
For the comprehensive sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, Liu Peizhen pointed out that if Russia also counters in the future, the first thing may be the US supply chain, the corresponding Asian market impact is small, and in the short term, there should be an opportunity to receive orders from US manufacturers.
EENews: Chip sanctions on Russia could be good for China
According to foreign media eeNews, if Western companies do not supply semiconductors to Russia, the fast-growing Chinese semiconductor industry may benefit by supplying semiconductors to Russia. China can manufacture and supply most of Russia's analog, mixed-signal and power modules, as well as meet Russia's needs for microcontrollers in industry, communications, automotive and military. The global nature of the semiconductor business could mean that any disruption caused by sanctions could have a knock-on effect on a global scale, with supply chains facing new pressures.
Omdia: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will cause the data center industry to suffer a double whammy
Research firm Omdia published "What Impact May the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict Have on the Cloud Computing and Data Center Industry?" According to the report, the possible war in Ukraine may bring more difficulties to the semiconductor industry, because this conflict may significantly exacerbate the current ongoing shortage of semiconductors, and will inevitably affect the cloud computing and data center industry.
Since the global economy began to emerge from the shadow of covid-19, the data center industry has been facing a shortage of semiconductors, the report said. Today, the conflict in Ukraine may trigger an increase in the price of neon gas. This will cause the industry to suffer a double whammy.
Experts: The high-tech blockade of Russia will make it "stagnant"
Reuters quoted experts as interpreting that U.S. companies exporting to Russia must now obtain licenses to sell computers, sensors, lasers, navigation tools, and telecommunications, aerospace and marine equipment, while federal agencies will reject almost all applications. Legal experts say that out of prudence, many companies may choose to suspend all sales to Russia. Reuters said many of the products manufactured overseas and shipped to Russia include chips made using U.S. tools. More than a dozen EU member states, as well as the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, are already imposing similar export restrictions.
Emily Kirkris, a senior fellow at the Center for New American Security (CNAS), said the restrictions would stall Russia's technological development.
How do major semiconductor manufacturers view it?
According to the data, Ukraine supplies about 70% of the world's production of neon gas, a compound used in semiconductor lithography, especially deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV), which is extremely important for equipment manufacturers as well as wafer foundries.
An ASML spokesperson said a few days ago that although Ukraine is the world's largest producer of neon gas, less than 20% of the neon gas used by ASML comes from the country. But Reuters reported that ASML is looking for other sources of neon supply in case the conflict between Russia and Ukraine causes supply disruptions.
UMC spokesman Liu Qidong said that although UMC uses neon gas from Ukraine, UMC has always maintained suppliers from multiple sources, not only a single source, even if Ukraine is out of stock, UMC can find alternative sources in Taiwan.
GF said it does not expect direct risk and the flexibility to source goods outside of Russia or Ukraine.
In addition, palladium is mainly used in the production of storage flash memory (NAND Flash), with russia and Ukraine supplying about 30%.
Storage manufacturer Micron issued a statement saying that the company has diversified procurement of all inert gases, and our neon gas supply is mainly from various suppliers in the European Union, the United States and Asia. In addition, the company maintains proper inert gas inventories to support our business, with several long-term supply agreements with key suppliers and working closely with them to ensure uninterrupted supply.
SK Hynix said that the company has prepared in advance, has a relatively abundant material reserve, and the related risks have no impact on the business.
Conclusion: At present, due to the relative procurement advantages of large chip companies such as ASML and Micron and sufficient raw material inventories, the impact is relatively small, but in the long run, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led countries or regions to take stricter export control measures against Russia or increase the price of neon, palladium and other materials, further impacting the global industrial chain.
(Proofreading/Yuki)