The hydrogen energy sector speculated before the New Year has recently been completely extinguished, and the major popular targets: Snowman Shares, Xiongtao Shares, Meijin Energy, etc. have shown a downward trend, falling again and again, and the main funds have flowed out sharply.
Recently watching the news, Honda's CEO Mibu Toshihiro said bluntly in an interview that the original plant has conducted multiple attempts and investigations on hydrogen fuel power in recent years, and due to the technical challenges of hydrogen fuel power, it is believed that it will not become the mainstream choice in the market, and this power is not regarded as the best solution to solve carbon neutrality.
Not only Honda, but also Mercedes-Benz and SAIC have terminated the research and development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle technology earlier, leaving only Toyota with a fondness for hydrogen fuel power, and the big manufacturers have bluntly given up, is hydrogen energy really only a past hype?
First of all, we cannot deny that the development of hydrogen energy is indeed difficult
Hydrogen production, hydrogen transportation, hydrogen storage, hydrogenation, and the development of hydrogen energy are very expensive in each link.
But no hurdle can be bypassed!
Hydrogen production: In the previous article, I told you that green hydrogen is the best way to go in the future, but the cost of green hydrogen is 2.5-4.6 US dollars / kg, which is mainly the electrolyzer is expensive, some technologies rely on imports, and the mainland currently has advantages in hydrogen production.
Hydrogen storage: At this stage, the main hydrogen storage method in the mainland is high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage, which has high technical maturity and low cost, but the defect is that the hydrogen storage density is low and there are leakage safety hazards.
Hydrogen transportation: the main transportation route of mainland hydrogen is high-pressure gas hydrogen, 20MPa long-tube trailer is widely used, only suitable for short distances and small volumes, in addition, the cost of transportation in this way is significantly increased with the transportation distance (such as 600km, it will reach more than 35 yuan / kg), there is also a way to liquid hydrogen tank truck, but liquefaction equipment is highly dependent on imports. In the later period, if the mainland develops pipeline hydrogen transmission, the high cost of pipeline cost will also be a big constraint.
Hydrogenation: Just building a hydrogen refueling station requires 15-20 million yuan. Mainly hydrogen cylinder materials, such as high-strength carbon fiber, sealant, cylinder valve group, etc. basically rely on foreign countries, so the cost of the cost can not come down, at present, there are only 200 hydrogen refueling stations in the mainland.
To tell you this is to tell you that at present, the entire industrial chain has not yet formed an effective cycle, has not established a sound hydrogen storage and transportation network channels, and even limits the scale development of hydrogen production.
Between the above technical problems, safety problems, cost problems, etc., so that hydrogen energy can not be commercialized on a large scale for the time being, the current lithium battery industry chain is mature, so it will continue for a long time.
Speaking of this, we also found that the cost and technical problems are actually the top priority, this kind of industry is a heavy asset industry, not after the hype, in fact, many companies' current development, research and development capabilities, financial strength can not bear the development of this industry at all, in this industry, Flying Whale only mentioned a company, Weichai Power, you can pay attention to its development, in the previous article also gave you a detailed introduction to it.
2. Secondly, the country is vigorously laying out and it takes time
In September last year, the five national departments issued the "Notice on Launching the Demonstration Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles", which regarded Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou as a demonstration point for the development of hydrogen fuel vehicles, and points could be obtained through the development of fuel vehicles. One point is 100,000 yuan, and the upper limit of the point is 17,000 points, which does not exceed 10% of the upper limit, that is to say, as long as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou complete the integration task in promoting hydrogen fuel, the maximum subsidy can be 1.87 billion yuan. The landing of the subsidy policy also means that the foundation for the commercial operation of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market in the future has been laid.
Just like the original electric vehicle subsidy (the state implements a double integral policy) is good for enterprises with a high proportion of new energy vehicles, I think that everyone is not optimistic about the development of new energy vehicles, thinking that the future is still the world of fuel vehicles, but with the implementation of national policies, new energy vehicles: Xiaopeng, Weilai, etc. have not only developed, but the subsidy policy has also declined on the basis of development.
At present, hydrogen energy is still in the early stage of development, the need for the support of the national industrial policy, from the subsidy (no one will spend money in places where no money is needed) and the flying whale mentioned above can be seen that there are indeed difficulties, it takes time, in other words, the national leader Deng Xiaoping drew a circle in the south, and it takes time to develop the reform and opening up, not to mention the development of hydrogen energy under the double carbon target.
Now not only in the north, Shanghai and Guangzhou, most of the cities in the country, as well as central enterprises and private enterprises have been large-scale layout (must form a joint force), industrial policy from upstream to downstream covers the core technology, hydrogen production, hydrogen refueling stations, hydrogen storage, demonstration application area support.
3. It has not yet developed, so where is the current application?
The general logic is that commercial vehicles are used first and passenger cars are followed by passenger cars.
At present, domestic hydrogen fuel vehicles are mainly used in commercial fields. It is mainly used in the form of buses, public service vehicles, and long-distance freight vehicles. In Beijing, companies such as Mizuki Tongda have emerged that use hydrogen energy buses to provide bus services such as commuting and tourism. For example, this Winter Olympics, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have become a transportation booster for more than 800 vehicles to provide transportation services, compared with other fuel cell vehicles in the cold test of the phenomenon of power failure, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the low temperature start, endurance and other aspects of outstanding performance.
Why rear passenger cars?
Just mentioned to you, the entire industrial chain has not yet fully formed a synergy, is in the cultivation and development period of high costs, hydrogen refueling station hydrogen energy infrastructure is insufficient, in addition, the hydrogen storage tank is very large, passenger car space has become narrow. Commercial vehicles do not emphasize charging speed and mileage, nor do they need to put hydrogen refueling stations in downtown areas, so commercial vehicles are commercial vehicles first, and then they need to continuously accumulate technologies related to hydrogen energy, significantly reduce costs, and improve the performance (whether commercial vehicles or passenger cars) in order to popularize them to passenger cars.
Summary: Flying Whale believes that hydrogen energy will not be extinguished, it will only be those enterprises that have no real materials for no reason to speculate, the hot spots will definitely be mixed, investors should polish their eyes, in addition, the development of the entire hydrogen energy still needs time, the country has been included in the 14th Five-Year Plan, waiting for the blossoms.
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