Trillion Ning King, the flow of years is unfavorable.
Author | The king from the planet Magnesia is full
In the first week of the Year of the Tiger, no one could have imagined that the Ningde era, which was in full swing, had actually become the "black swan" of the ChiNext index.
5 days before the opening of the New Year, the stock price of Ningde Times plummeted many times, and only one day turned red slightly. As the "weight brother" in the ChiNext board, the market value of nearly 20% of the proportion, so that "Ning Wang" passively has the ability to directly affect the ChiNext index.
Therefore, in the context of the 3.02% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, the ChiNext index has fallen by 5.59%. Friday's close of trading at 2746.38 hit a new 2022 low. Under the panic, there was even a rumor in the market that the Ningde era would be excluded from the ChiNext weight index.
In the stock market, a brief decline is not terrible, but the spread of pessimism can be fatal.
In the face of the "endless declines" of the Ningde era in the past two months, Wei Zhichao, chief economist of Capital Securities, said bluntly that there is still at least 20% of the downward exploration space in the Ningde era.
"After the catalyst of the rising logic is shaken, the high-valued group stocks are facing the dilemma of killing more, and the Ningde era may not have bottomed out in the short term... There may still be 20% downside in the future. ”
In the capital market, emotion is undoubtedly a double-edged sword, which can both make a company fly in the sky and make it fall to the ground.
In the Ningde era, it is encountering an unprecedented "bearish" crisis.
"King Ning" Meets Rumors "Fierce Tiger" in the Year of the Tiger
On December 13, 2021, 692 yuan / share, 1.6 trillion yuan market value.
After landing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, this is the most dazzling achievement contributed by the Ningde era to investors. However, as the sun shines, it is difficult to ensure that there will be no storms.
Since the beginning of December 14, the stock price of NINGDE times has gradually begun to decline in the shock, which is quite a trend of "boiling frogs in warm water". It was not until the last trading day before the holiday that investors suddenly woke up: the closing price of the Ningde era on the day was 592.6 yuan, which was about 100 yuan lower than the highest level.
And the real "explosion of thunder" occurred after the Spring Festival.
In the first trading week of the Year of the Tiger, CATL closed all of them down except Wednesday, down 17.32% cumulatively, and closed at 489.99 yuan / share on Friday. At the same time that the stock price fell below 500 yuan, the market value also lost more than 200 billion yuan, and the mourning was everywhere.
If the data of the third quarter report of 2021 is prevailing, the number of shareholders in the Ningde era totals 134,200. Then, in the first week of the Year of the Tiger, the shareholders of "Ning Wang" had to accept the tragic situation of an average household loss of more than 1.5 million yuan.
The loss of the fund institution is even more shocking. According to media statistics, more than 1680 funds currently hold CATL, with a total of 261 million shares. Roughly calculated, the total market value of the fund's holdings in 2022 will evaporate by more than 26 billion yuan.
The reporter noticed that the recent "straight line falling" of the Ningde era was accompanied by several rumors:
Market rumors: The Biden administration has placed 33 Chinese entities on the Commerce Department's Unverified List, imposed new restrictions on the entities' access to products from U.S. exporters, and required additional investigations of U.S. companies that wish to do business with these Chinese companies, including CATL.
There are so-called "news" screenshots on the Internet showing that the Ningde era may be excluded from the weight of the ChiNext index, but the time is undecided;
There are multiple accounts on Weibo that said: "Ningde times and Tesla talk collapsed."
Stock prices plummeted and rumors spread. For a moment, the "King of Ning" seemed to have fallen into a crisis of turmoil.
The "combination punch" saved the downward trend, but the hidden dangers were far from being eliminated
Under pressure, action must be taken to turn the tide.
On February 13, CATL issued an announcement in official channels, saying:
"Recently, the network platform has successively appeared a series of malicious rumors such as the Ningde era being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the ChiNext weight index, and talking with Tesla, which has caused market misunderstandings and distortions, affecting the reputation of the company, rumors are unfounded, and of a bad nature, and the Ningde era has reported the case to the public security organs on February 12, and will pursue legal responsibility for the rumor-mongers according to law."
On February 14, Interface News exclusively reported that a number of media reprinted:
"Recently, it was learned from the Intermediate People's Court of Ningde City, Fujian Province, that NINGDE Times filed a lawsuit against Hive Energy, the cause of the case is unfair competition, and the case will be heard this month."
On the evening of February 15, CATL issued another announcement, disclosing that on February 14, Chairman Zeng Yuqun, Secretary of the Board of Directors and Deputy General Manager Jiang Li, and Financial Director Zheng Shu accepted research by 50 investors, including Hillhouse Capital, Hongshang Capital, Tencent Investment, Temasek, Sequoia Capital, Fidelity Fund, Warburg Pincus Investment and Capital Group, and replied to 20 questions that investors focused on - including raw material layout, energy storage and the progress of the power exchange sector Whether to build a factory in the United States, how to view the expansion of friendly business and other hot topics.
Alarms, announcements, prosecutions of competitors, coupled with the chairman's personal response, a set of combination punches down, so that the stock price of the Ningde era on February 14 and 15, that is, the Western Valentine's Day and China's Lantern Festival, the Ningde era welcomed two consecutive reds, finally let investors be happy to spend a festival.
Whether in the capital markets or the consumer market, the company, which has been established for less than a decade, has maintained a long period of high morale. So, in addition to rumors, what is the obstacle that the Ningde era has to face?
The Iron Throne, not good to sit on
It is difficult to fight the country, and it is even more difficult to defend the country.
According to the 2021 global power battery installed capacity list released by South Korean market research institute SNE Research, the top ten global power battery installed capacity in 2021 are: CATL Times, LG New Energy, Panasonic, BYD, SK On, Samsung SDI, Zhongxin Airlines (AVIC Lithium Battery), Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Envision Power, and Hive Energy.
Among them, the global power battery loading volume of the CATL era reached 96.7 GWh, with a market share of 32.6%, eating nearly one-third of the global market share, while also increasing by 8 percentage points compared with last year.
In China, according to the data provided by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2021, the installed capacity of power batteries in the Ningde era will be 80.51GWh, with a market share of 52.1%, continuing to rank first in the domestic power battery industry.
From a global and domestic point of view, the NINGD era still maintains a leading position, but the outside world still has doubts about the stability of its position.
The first is the fear of "foreign enemies".
From the perspective of the global market, although Panasonic ranks in the top three, it gradually has a tendency to fall behind, and what really poses a threat to the Ningde era is LG New Energy, which has just been listed on the Korea Stock Exchange.
In 2021, LG New Energy handed over an answer sheet with a market share of 20.3% and a loading capacity of 60.2GWh, and firmly grasped the orders of giant companies such as Tesla, Hyundai, and Volkswagen.
Although the market share in 2021 has declined compared with 2020, the number of backlog orders in LG New Energy's hands cannot be underestimated. At the IPO media exchange meeting on January 10 this year, the new CEO Quan Weishou released a bold statement that LG New Energy's global market share will eventually surpass the Ningde era, and its confidence comes from a large backlog of battery orders.
At the same time that LG New Energy received a top IPO price of 300,000 won, it also reported that it would expand its production capacity in 6 countries.
The ambitions of the South Koreans are clear.
What is more variable for "Ning Wang" is that by the end of this year, China's new energy vehicle subsidies will officially end, while subsidies in overseas regions will continue to increase, which will add new variables to the global market competition in 2022. "Ning Wang" wants to sit firmly on the "Iron Throne" of the global industry leader, which is not an easy task.
At the same time, the "worry" about the high cost and market value of the Ningde era has always been a controversial topic in the industry.
"King Ning's New Clothes"?
Eastland, research director of Tiger Sniff, sharply pointed out in the article "'Sport' Valuation in the Ningde Era" that there are problems such as strange cost structures and weak anti-risk capabilities in the Ningde era. He believes that "in the cost of power batteries in the Ningde era, the proportion of direct material costs is surprisingly high."
According to the data provided, in the 2017-2020 revenue cost of the CATL era, direct materials accounted for 97.9%, 99.7%, 92.1% and 88.9% respectively. This means that the fluctuation of direct material cost prices will have a huge impact on the cost management of "Ning Wang".
The reporter noted that although the Ningde era has been actively deployed in the procurement of upstream raw materials in recent years, in view of the background of the increase in the global lithium supply and the increase in the probability of supply tension, the shock wave of raw material price increases is not unable to hit the "Ning Wang".
In addition, there are also people who are worried about the longer-term future of the lithium battery industry.
In a sense, today's new energy vehicles = electric vehicles = lithium battery cars, but the total amount of resources required for the production of lithium batteries is still the sword of Damocles hanging in all battery manufacturers, including the Ningde era.
Stanley Whittingham, a British scientist who won the 2019 Nobel Prize in Chemistry and is known as one of the "fathers of lithium batteries", warned at the 2021 World's Top Scientists Carbon Conference that "in 5 to 10 years, the raw materials currently used to produce lithium-ion batteries will be exhausted." ”
Wu Feng, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, professor of Beijing Institute of Technology, and chairman of the Expert Committee of the Power Battery Application Branch of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, further believes that "from the perspective of the global lithium resource reserves, although there will be no shortage within ten years, lithium-ion batteries also need to use nickel, cobalt and other resources, especially cobalt resources are not only scarce but also expensive, which requires the industry to take precautions." ”
In the new energy jianghu, no one can keep it easy, at least in the long run, no.
epilogue
On the growth path of any strong person, there is no shortage of doubts. As the industry leader of power batteries in China and even in the world, the road to the top of the list in the Ningde era is naturally not easier than "playing the Country".
When we look back at the past history of the development of science and technology and manufacturing, technological innovation, iteration, diffusion and subversion are repeated like a reincarnation, there are centuries-old enterprises, but it is difficult to have a century-old leader. This has been repeatedly fulfilled in industries such as panels, telecommunications equipment and photovoltaics, and the difficult situation faced by the Ningde era today will certainly continue to occur in the future.
Today, coinciding with the unprecedented changes in a century, China is ushering in a new round of scientific and technological revolution and the historic intersection of industrial change and accelerating the transformation of economic development mode, and intelligent manufacturing will continue to be an important direction for the mainland to attack. For the Ningde era, which was selected as the first batch of "intelligent manufacturing benchmarking enterprises" in China, we sincerely hope that it can stabilize the situation as soon as possible, jump out of the "bearish quagmire", and reflect more Chinese strength in the tide of global development of new energy vehicles.