On February 15, the new energy automobile industry chain was collectively pulled up. In 2022, new energy vehicles will welcome a "good start", with new energy passenger car sales of 347,000 units in January, an increase of 132% year-on-year and a decrease of 27% month-on-month. What are the key points to watch?
On February 15, auto parts led the gains in the two markets, and the index rose 2.19%.
Among them, Zhejiang Liming, Junda shares, Xiangshan shares, Zhejiang Shibao, Yingli Automobile, Hengli Industry rose and stopped; Changshu Auto Accessories, Zhongding Shares, Sailun Tire, Best, Hailian Jinhui and so on led the rise.
The auto sector rose, with the index up 1.85%. Among them, Shuguang shares once rose and stopped, and Xiaokang shares, Changan Automobile, Beiqi Blue Valley, BYD, Jianghuai Automobile and so on followed suit.
The off-season of new energy vehicles is not weak, and in the industrial chain, lithium batteries, lithium battery materials, cobalt, rare earth permanent magnets and other plates have risen, and the increase is in the front.
New energy vehicles welcome the "opening red" //
According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales volume of the domestic passenger car market in January this year was 2.092 million units, down 4.4% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month. Although the retail sales of domestic passenger cars showed a downward trend year-on-year and month-on-month, the overall trend was very good.
Unlike the overall passenger car market performance, the new energy passenger car market ushered in a "good start" in the first month of 2022. Retail sales reached 347,000 units, up 132% y/y and down 27% sequentially.
The data shows that the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January was 16.6%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the penetration rate of 6.8% in January 2021. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands reached 31.4%. In January, there were 11 companies with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles exceeding 10,000.
The hot sales of new energy models of traditional car companies show that the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles is greatly improving.
On the evening of February 14, Great Wall Motor, Changan Automobile and FAW Jiefang disclosed the January production and sales express, and the sales of new energy vehicles have become the highlights of the business sector.
Combing through the data, most of the traditional car companies' new energy model sales have achieved "opening red" year-on-year. Among them, GAC Group even achieved double growth.
The Association believes that the trend of domestic new energy vehicles in February will not be affected by the decline in subsidies. The Association expects that the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China will reach about 5.5 million units in 2022, achieving a high growth rate of about 70%.
Lithium battery materials continue to rise //
The popularity of new energy vehicle sales is related to multiple factors such as the "double carbon" goal and the transformation of the automobile industry to electrification.
According to data from Shanghai Steel Federation, on February 15, the price of raw materials in the lithium battery industry chain rose again, with lithium metal rising by 60,000 yuan / ton, the highest at 2.16 million yuan / ton; battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 0.9 million yuan / ton, the average price was 414,000 yuan / ton; lithium hydroxide rose by 0.85 million-10,000 yuan / ton. Electrolytic cobalt, cobalt sulfate, lithium iron phosphate, etc. have risen to varying degrees.
It is understood that in 2021 alone, the lithium concentrate in the raw materials of power batteries rose from 420 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year to 1900 US dollars / ton at the end of the year, an increase of up to 355%.
In addition, the price increases of battery-grade lithium carbonate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate last year all increased exponentially.
In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles reached 2.942 million units and 2.916 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.7 times and 1.6 times year-on-year, respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 601,000 units and 603,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year, respectively.
The data shows that compared with the beginning of 2020, the average price of cathode materials for mainstream ternary lithium batteries in 2021 has risen by 108.9%, the average cathode material for lithium iron phosphate batteries has risen by 182.5%, and the early price of lithium is only 30,000 yuan / ton, and has now risen to 330,000-340,000 yuan / ton, an increase of up to 10 times.
The Association said that with the recent decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles and the sharp rise in the price of basic resources such as lithium ore, new energy vehicle companies are facing certain cost pressures. However, the market price of new energy vehicles is not expected to rise significantly, and car companies should have the ability to resolve the pressure and continue to maintain the rapid growth of new energy vehicles in 2022.
On February 15, lithium battery stocks pulled higher, and the index rose 2.90%. Among them, Zhongke Electric and Defang Nano rose by more than 10%; Ronbay Technology, Xingyuan Material, Kedali, Jiayuan Technology, Li Yuanheng and so on soared.
The first leader of lithium batteries- Ningde Times rose again by 3.74% today, and the stock price was reported at 527 yuan.
According to the latest news, CATL signed a four-party agreement in Sichuan to cooperate in accelerating the exploration and development of lithium ore resources in the province.
The installed capacity of CATL in 2021 will reach 96.7GWh, and the market share will increase to 32.6%. The company has started the industrialization layout of sodium-ion batteries, and it is expected to form a basic industrial chain in 2023.
Electric vehicles are rising in price //
Affected by the rising price of lithium battery raw materials for new energy vehicles, Tesla, Weilai and other brand electric vehicles have increased prices.
On the last day of 2021, Tesla China officially announced that the price of the Model3 rear-wheel drive version model subsidy increased by 10,000 yuan compared with before, and the price of the ModelY rear-wheel drive version increased by 21,088 yuan compared with before, and no longer enjoyed the national new energy subsidy.
According to the "BYD Conference Call Minutes" on February 15, the content shows that the company's various models have increased prices to varying degrees. In addition, BYD has a large number of undelivered orders for each model, so it will increase production capacity at four new bases after May.
Since February this year, Feifan Automobile and Wuling have announced price increases.
Analysts said that the sharp increase in raw material prices is only the premise of price adjustment, and the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles is the final fuse.
According to the "Notice on the Promotion and Application of Financial Subsidy Policies for New Energy Vehicles in 2022": The subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will basically decline by 30% in 2021.
The "Notice" is: "in the range of pure electric vehicles in the range of 300-400km, pure electric vehicles will be refunded 0.91 million yuan, pure electric mileage greater than 400km will be refunded 12,600 yuan, and plug-in (including range extenders) will be refunded by 0.48 million yuan", and the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be stopped on December 31, 2022.
Institutional Perspectives //
BANK OFC International said that the global prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to rise, domestic battery and material companies accelerate the introduction of global supply chains, supply and demand in some links are expected to improve, batteries, diaphragms and other links have a better competitive pattern, and new technologies promote the upgrading of the industrial chain. Leading enterprises in all links are expected to benefit significantly.
Wanlian Securities said that the current penetration rate of new energy vehicles has not appeared at an inflection point, in the continuous improvement of new energy vehicle product strength, the supply of high-quality models of rich superimposed industrial scale effect, it is expected that the new energy automobile industry will continue to develop well, the short-term game atmosphere of industrial chain stocks is heavier, but it does not affect the long-term growth logic, it is still recommended to focus on.
Orient Securities said that 2021 is the best year for midstream materials to make profits, and all links have different degrees of price increases, and the price increase will inevitably bring about an increase in the speed of production capacity. Considering the expansion plan and expansion speed of each link, the barrel effect is still valid, and the tight production capacity of some links and the slowdown of technical iteration may be interpreted as a bottleneck in the production of lithium batteries or new energy vehicles, becoming a potential plate for volume and price to rise.
With the launch of new production capacity, it is expected that the price of core materials will stabilize or even fall, and the overall cost of the battery end will decline in the future period of time, while the downstream price upward trend is very certain, with the increase in battery gross margin superimposed scale effect brings about a decline in the expense rate, the battery link ushered in a profit inflection point.
Midstream materials pay attention to the diaphragm link Enjie shares, Xingyuan materials, Cangzhou Pearl; it is recommended to pay attention to the solvent links Shi Dashenghua, Xinjiubang, Oak shares; ternary materials pay attention to the integrated layout of the core target of Huayou Cobalt, it is recommended to pay attention to Dangsheng Technology.
CICC recommends paying attention to: 1) head autonomous vehicles and new force car companies: Xiaopeng, Ideal, Weilai, Great Wall, Changan, Geely; 2) power exchange industry targets: Hanchuan Intelligence, Shandong Weida, Bozhong Seiko (not covered); 3) electric intelligent components: Huayi Technology, Shangsheng Electronics, Xingyu Shares, Suao Sensing, Xinrui Technology (not covered), etc.; 4) Motor supply chain: Longsheng Technology, Juyi Technology, Jingda Shares (not covered); 5) Air suspension: Tianrun Industry, Zhongding Shares.
Lithium battery stocks are bursting //
After February, the 2021 annual reports of listed companies entered the peak of disclosure, and performance growth will become the focus of investors' attention.
According to Wind statistics, as of February 15, as the core of the new energy vehicle industry chain - lithium batteries (lithium batteries, electrolytes, positive and negative electrode materials), a total of 65 companies announced 2021 performance forecasts, 56 companies performance forecasts (pre-increase of 44, slight increase of 2, turnaround of 10); 45 companies are expected to double their performance growth.
Among them, CATL is the king of profits, and the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the mother of about 14,000,000 yuan to 16,500,000 yuan in 2021, an increase of 150.75% to 195.52%.
Nord shares are the pre-increase king, the company is expected to net profit in 2021 of about 390 million yuan ~ 420 million yuan, an increase of 7142% ~ 7699%.
The top 30 companies with performance growth in 2021 are as follows:
(Wind synthesizes from Wind financial terminal data, institutional research reports, etc.)
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