22/02/14
Lead
According to the actual terminal performance of nearly 60,000 vehicles in January, tesla sales in China in 2022 are likely to exceed the mark of 750,000 vehicles.
Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Yang Jing
Edit 丨 Chic
Recently, Tesla has spent time in clarification.
First of all, it was rumored on the Internet that it and the Ningde era had "talked about the collapse" of the price of power batteries, which immediately triggered a shock in the capital market; next, a tweet pointed to the location of its second factory in China, and finally finalized it as Shenyang, Liaoning.
In response, Tesla replied uniformly: "For false news." ”
As everyone knows, just this afternoon, with the official announcement of the January terminal results of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the popularity of this American new energy vehicle company is still continuing. Specifically, Tesla sold a total of 59,845 new cars in a single month. Of these, 40,499 units were exported and 19,346 units were sold in China.
Such a result also confirms what Musk once said, before the Berlin factory in Germany has not been officially put into operation, the Shanghai factory still maintains the practice of giving priority to ensuring the supply of overseas markets in the first half of each quarter, and making efforts to deliver in China in the second half.
After opening the official website of Tesla China, it was found that the current pick-up cycle of domestic Model 3 and Model Y takes 3-4 months. Obviously, the total number of orders held by the former is still relatively abundant.
This raises an old question: in the first month of the year, Tesla is located in China, and undoubtedly made a good start, so how much do you think its final sales will reach in 2022?
In fact, musk has already made an answer as early as last year's shareholder meeting. In his view, by 2030, Tesla will achieve annual sales of 20 million vehicles. At present, Tesla's compound annual growth rate has reached 71%, which is a very frightening growth rate in all car companies.
Next, as long as the chip shortage problem can be alleviated as soon as possible, Tesla will have no problem maintaining the existing growth rate, at least for a longer period of time to maintain more than 50% growth.
In other words, based on the performance of about 940,000 vehicles delivered worldwide last year, Tesla's new sales target for 2022 is set at 1.5 million vehicles. Obviously, how much incremental the Chinese market can provide has become a decisive factor in whether it can be successfully achieved.
As an argument, it was learned from the Environmental Information Disclosure Platform of Shanghai Enterprises and Institutions that Tesla conducted an environmental impact assessment of the second phase of the production line optimization project of the Shanghai factory (Phase I).
According to the EIA report, the total investment in the production line optimization project is as high as 1.2 billion yuan, of which the environmental protection investment is 85 million yuan, accounting for 7.08%, and is expected to be completed in April this year.
Tesla said in the EIA report that the project is an expansion project, which is carried out in the existing new model production area (that is, the production area of the second phase B of the Shanghai Super Factory (Phase I)), and the production model is unchanged from before the expansion, that is, the Model 3, Model Y and related derivative models are still maintained.
"The project will increase capacity by increasing working hours, increasing the number of employees, and increasing the frequency of material turnover, but the EIA report does not disclose the increase in capacity." According to insiders, after the optimization of the project, the factory will increase the number of employees by 4,000, and the number of employees in the whole plant will reach 19,000.
It is certain that after the rapid expansion, the annual production capacity of Tesla's Shanghai factory will be further improved on the basis of the current 550,000-600,000 vehicles in a single year.
In addition to preparing sufficient production capacity in advance, it is also necessary to know that Tesla's sales in China in the past year reached 484,100 vehicles, accounting for 51.7% of total sales, and more than half of the success.
Therefore, according to the actual terminal performance of nearly 60,000 vehicles in January, it is very likely that the sales volume in China will exceed the mark of 750,000 vehicles in 2022.
Then, assuming that the final sales share in China continues to maintain about 50% of the total, Tesla's cumulative sales in 2022 will hit the 150 mark, which seems to be a drama.
Cui Liwen
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