What is driving innovation in the automotive market? Is it the so-called market supply and demand relationship, or scientific and technological progress, or the guidance of policies? In fact, the ancients have long said: "Merchants are heavy profits." At the same time, the ancients also said: "Poor will change, change will be general." At the same time, a quote from Marx was widely circulated: "If there is a 300% profit, they dare to risk a guillotine." ”
So when Akio Toyoda expresses his concerns about electric vehicles and Carlos Tavares says, "Electrification is the choice of politicians, not the choice of industry," what we see is a different approach than they say.
On the one hand, Toyota is about to launch 15 electrification products; on the other hand, it is the determination of Citroën to achieve 100% electrification in 2025. This kind of inconsistent "true incense behavior" is a slap in the face, but it is precisely to show that behind the current vigorous electrification, the source power is not a single policy factor or market element in our simple cognition.
I don't know if you have ever thought about why you must abandon fuel and switch to the electrification camp? In fact, it is not so much to embrace electrification as to embrace new energy, but because electrification is the lowest threshold in new energy, the most popular, will be electrified.
Taking China as an example, the OECD estimates that the number of deaths caused by air pollution in China will be higher than the global average for a long time, and China's environmental pressure is close to the limit. This is true in China, and it is not bad abroad. Therefore, embracing new energy has become an inevitable part of human sustainable development. With this big premise in mind, the "electrification movement" began vigorously. But revolution is always accompanied by sacrifice and bloodshed, and the arrival of new people is bound to lead to the departure of the old man. Therefore, when new forces arrive, traditional enterprises cannot sit still. The two sides first had a fierce collision of ideas.
In fact, the role of new energy can be explained from three dimensions. First, ecological benefits. New energy is naturally environmentally friendly and can effectively protect the global environment. As mentioned above, according to the current human activity estimates, the future of the earth will be subjected to huge ecological pressure, this part of the pressure will eventually eat back to human beings themselves. Therefore, for the sustainable development of mankind, the development of clean energy is imperative. Achieving comprehensive conservation and recycling of resources can not only accelerate the treatment of air pollution, but also solve the problem of energy resource shortage and strengthen the protection of the ecological environment.
Second, it is economic benefits. Simply put, it is what we often call market performance, that is, interests. Most of the new energy industry belongs to high-tech industries, and the added value of its industry is very high, which has obvious effects on the economic drive. New energy is a strategic and pioneering emerging industry in the world, and an important field for adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure and training and development of new impetus. To put it simply, the new energy field is a blue ocean market, the market potential is very large, which can be seen with reference to the market value performance of Tesla and a number of new forces.
Third, it is social benefits. Let's take the crudest example. When the stock prices of car companies such as Tesla, Weilai and Xiaopeng soar, the shareholders who bought their shares will naturally make money, and after making money, they will spend money, which will drive GDP growth. In fact, from a more positive point of view, the use of new energy can bring a better environment, clearer air, and the new industries that follow can also drive more employment opportunities, and related scientific and technological research and development and supporting facilities are also more convenient for human life, thus creating a better livable urban environment.
In essence, the above three points are the so-called source power to promote the development of new energy. But at present, the specific performance is more reflected in the level of electrification. This is because whether it is compared with the hydrogen energy currently valued by the state, or solid fuel cells and other energy sources, electrification is more popular in civilian life, and the degree of supporting construction and civilian acceptance is higher. In short, the foundation of electrification is the best, so it is the starting point, and whether it is the end is not yet known.
In fact, from the current market development, electrification is not the best answer for new energy. According to tests by MIT's TrancikLab, the Tesla electric car ModelS, which operates in the Midwest of the United States, emits 12,204 kilograms (CARBON dioxide equivalent) in the production process, emits 48,600 kilograms of carbon emissions for a total mileage of 270,000 kilometers, plus 311 kilograms of vehicle scrap (excluding power batteries), for a total of 61,115 kilograms of carbon emissions over the full life cycle. It can be seen that the carbon emissions of the manufacturing process of electric vehicles account for 20% of the total carbon emissions of their whole life cycle; the carbon emissions per unit of the whole life cycle are 226 grams/km.
If compared to the carbon emissions of luxury BMW 7 Series (BMW 7Series) fuel vehicles (385 g/km), tesla Model S's carbon emissions are indeed 41% lower. However, if compared with the carbon emissions of the compact Mirage Fuel Vehicle (192 grams/km), the average carbon emissions of the Tesla Model S are 17% higher over the entire life cycle.
In addition, there are many problems in electrified models, such as battery recycling problems are not too good solutions, and the secondary pollution that follows is also quite a headache. Perhaps it is precisely because of these problems that the mainland began to tilt toward hydrogen energy this year, trying to electrify and grasp hydrogen energy at both ends to determine the final answer.
There is no doubt that the source power of electrification is not due to a single cause. Its core lies in the sustainable development of human beings, which is a market choice guided by policy. In essence, the essence of promoting the development of electrification is to promote the development of new energy, but once in the process of electrification, there are insurmountable difficulties and new alternative energy sources, then electrification or will gradually lose the current opportunity to take the stage, and gradually retreat into the background. As a result, today's electrification continues to advance, but the road ahead is full of thorns. (Image source network, invasion and deletion)