BYD wants to become a new energy field, the vehicle, battery "double material king"?
Recently, some netizens broke the news that Tesla and BYD's Fordy battery reached an agreement and placed an order for 204,000 units / year blade battery. Although BYD has not yet officially confirmed it, this news has caused an uproar in the capital market. Because if the news is true, Tesla's "old friend" in the field of power batteries- the stock price of the Ningde era may usher in another major setback. In fact, as early as September 2021, there were rumors of cooperation between Tesla and BYD. And BYD founder Wang Chuanfu also confidently said to the outside world: "The safety of blade batteries, throw off the opponent two streets." ”
Just started the year in the field of "weak" power batteries ushered in good news, in 2022, BYD in the sales of new energy vehicles, can also "break the sky" together?
First, millions of sales have become a foregone conclusion? BYD's monthly sales are approaching 100,000
In the field of global new energy vehicles, in addition to Tesla, only BYD is qualified to challenge millions of sales. According to the sales statistics of various car companies, the total sales of Tesla in 2021 will be 930,000 vehicles, if there is no accident, it will not be a big problem to break through one million within 2022. BYD, on the other hand, has reserved a hint of "suspense" for us.
In 2021, BYD's sales performance is equally eye-catching. By May 2021, BYD has achieved the historic goal of rolling off the production line of 1 million new energy vehicles. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles also reached 590,000 units, an increase of 231.6% year-on-year. There is still progress, but there is still a clear distance from the goal of millions of sales. Jumping from 590,000 to 1 million, can BYD do miracles? Sales in January this year hinted at a very good start.
At the beginning of February, major domestic new energy vehicle companies successively handed over the first sales answer sheet of the new year. While other major car companies are celebrating their monthly sales of more than 10,000, BYD has launched a shock towards 100,000 monthly sales. According to the sales data released by BYD, in January 2022, BYD's new energy passenger car production and sales figures both exceeded the 90,000 mark, of which the output of new energy vehicles was 91,736 units, an increase of 309.66% year-on-year, and the sales volume was 93,168 units, an increase of 361.73% year-on-year.
According to BYD's total sales of 95,180 passenger cars, it can be seen that the manufacturing and sales of new energy vehicles have occupied the absolute mainstream of BYD's total sales of automobiles, accounting for 97.89%. Sales are slightly higher than production, which also hints at the necessity and urgency of BYD's automobile production capacity expansion.
Second, BYD's production capacity expansion road
Although sales in January increased sharply year-on-year, BYD's sales in January fell by about 3% compared with the sales of 97,990 vehicles in December 2021. The main reason is the unexpected shutdown of BYD's Xi'an plant due to the impact of the epidemic.
The first and second phases of the xi'an base, which have been put into operation, are bydir's main production areas for the Qin and Song series, and the regular monthly output is maintained in the range of 40,000 to 60,000 vehicles. However, throughout January, its production was only about 10,000 vehicles, which clearly constrained BYD's sales ceiling. With the end of the local epidemic and the traditional off-season of car sales around the Spring Festival, BYD's sales may be back on track in March. According to the information previously transmitted on the Internet, if the monthly production capacity in 2022 is not 180,000, there may be BYD executives who will be held accountable. This shows the determination of BYD's senior management to break through the 1 million sales mark this year.
At the new product launch in August 2021, BYD officials said that by 2025, BYD's car sales will exceed 3.65 million. Perhaps in the eyes of BYD employees, it is only a matter of time before it sells 1 million a year. Sales should be based on output, so from the current layout of BYD's factory capacity in China, is BYD capable of realizing its own rhetoric?
Third, BYD's production capacity limit
As of January 2022, BYD has put into operation a total of four production bases, namely the Shenzhen plant, the Xi'an Phase I and II plant, the Changsha plant and the Changzhou plant.
1. Xi'an factory
At present, the production models of the Xi'an plant are the most critical and the output is also the highest, and BYD's Qin and Song series and the traditional fuel model F3 are all produced by the Xi'an plant. In terms of production capacity, the regular production capacity of the Xi'an plant is about 50,000 units, and in November and December last year, the wholesale sales of the Xi'an plant were 56,100 and 50,100, respectively.
According to reports, the current limit production capacity of the Xi'an plant is about 60,000 vehicles, and with the Xi'an Phase III plant put into operation in August this year, the monthly output of BYD's Xi'an production base is expected to reach 80,000 vehicles. The completion of the third phase of the Construction of the Xi'an Plant is basically enough to support the annual sales target of 1 million. But to achieve BYD's 2025 plan, it is not enough. What if you add the capacity of factories in three other cities? The situation is still not optimistic.
2. Shenzhen factory
The main production models of the Shenzhen plant are Han, Tang and e6, and its conventional production capacity is only 30% of the Xi'an Phase I and Phase II plant. The wholesale production of 24,400 units in December 2021 is close to the limit of the Shenzhen plant.
3. Changsha factory
The Changsha plant mainly produces Yuan Pro, E2 and Dolphin models, and the production capacity is roughly equivalent to that of the Shenzhen plant, which is maintained between 20,000 and 30,000 vehicles.
4. Changzhou factory
Although the newly commissioned Changzhou plant in January this year has a planned production capacity of 40,000 vehicles, there is still a process of output climbing from production to reaching the limit of production capacity. Ideally, by the end of this year, the Changzhou plant could reach a capacity of more than 30,000 vehicles per month.
Obviously, relying on the above four factories alone to support the goal of 3.65 million annual sales is nothing short of a fantasy. Therefore, WHILE BYD is consolidating its existing production capacity, it is also speeding up the construction of new plants. In addition to the aforementioned Xi'an Phase III factory, in 2022, BYD's factories invested and built in Shanghai, Chongqing, Hefei, Jinan, Zhengzhou, and Wang Chuanfu's hometown, Wuhu, will also enter the production stage, in addition, BYD also has plans to expand the Shenzhen plant.
It is conservatively estimated that if the expansion of the above production bases is successful, IT will increase the production capacity of about 100,000 vehicles per month for BYD. At that time, BYD's limit monthly production will reach 260,000 to 280,000 vehicles, which is close to the 2025 target. Wang Chuanfu once said that the dream of "being the world's first car company" may also be realized.
IV. Conclusion
To achieve sales targets, capacity improvement is the prerequisite, but the key is also in the performance advantage.
Starting from 2020, BYD has bucked the trend in the context of the lack of "core" in the entire automotive industry, the soaring price of upstream raw materials, and the serious "inner coil", the fundamental reason is that its blade battery, DM-i hybrid technology and vehicle-grade IGBT chip technology are absolutely leading in terms of cost advantage and technical strength.
In 2021, BYD defeated Tesla in China, making Tesla founder Musk realize that BYD, which was ridiculed as "unheard of" more than 10 years ago, has now established a new energy vehicle empire spanning batteries, motors, electronic controls, vehicle manufacturing and other fields.
If you can't cooperate, you will throw orders for 204,000 units, which is very in line with Musk's logic as a businessman who has been mixed with Wall Street for a long time.