Tesla could see the biggest recall in the company's history.
In the U.S. market, more than 810,000 Tesla models are expected to be recalled this year, including its Model 3, Model Y, Model X and Model S products. The specific reason for the recall is that because of a software problem, the buzzer cannot be activated when the driver does not fasten the seat belt after the vehicle is started, resulting in no seat belt not being fastened.
In addition to the largest recalls, there has been an increase in the number of "ghost brakes". In the past three months, NHTSA has received 107 related complaints, focusing on the purchase of Auto Pilot and FSD Model 3 and Model Y models.
The largest recall + the number of false brakes has increased, this time Tesla can rely on the high stock price of OTA + $900 or more to save itself?
810,000 recalls, not difficult for Tesla
Although the number of recalls of more than 810,000 vehicles is by no means a small number for Tesla or any car brand, it is not difficult for the car company to operate. Whether in the U.S. or Chinese markets, Tesla's OTA recall is not the first.
Last year, the situation that Tesla's active cruise system in the US market may have been activated by the driver was finally solved by OTA recall. It is only a modification of the functional defects, including the prompt tone + function logo amplification flashing and other prompt effects when the active cruise control is started; the minimum starting speed limit of the active cruise control is increased from 15km/h to 30km/h; the active cruise control cannot be started when suddenly turning or large-angle steering, which reduces the risk of misoperation.
It is not difficult to modify the functional defects, Tesla just added a few functional restrictions and strengthened the function startup is the prompt effect. This OTA recall, which was carried out simultaneously in the U.S. and Chinese markets, was also included in the "recall" at the same time; previously, in the U.S. market, Tesla was investigated by NHTSA after updating autoPilot's functional defects in the form of OTA. The reason why the two major markets listed OTAs for defect modifications as "recalls" is only to achieve better market supervision of vehicle product defects.
Will the recall of more than 810,000 vehicles have a big impact on Tesla?
The impact is small, and OTA recalls can solve the underlying problem very well. From the perspective of solving the problem, an update program can be solved by pushing updates to 810,000 vehicles through the OTA function. In the short term, Tesla's stock price fluctuations are the most obvious impact, after the news exposed Tesla's U.S. stocks fell more than 3% before market hours, but still remained above $900 per share. The long-term impact should be "tiny", and with the support of high stock prices, the long-term impact of this software OTA recall on it should not be very large.
More difficult than the recall is the increase in false brakes
Recent complaints about Tesla's "ghost brakes" in the US market have increased from 34 in the original 22 months to 107 in 3 months, and the models are mainly concentrated in the purchase of Auto Pilot and FSD functions of Tesla Model 3 and Model Y models.
The so-called "ghost brake" is the miscalculation of Tesla models that has always existed, and after the increase in complaints, NHTSA launched an investigation into Tesla. The data shows that Tesla's pure visual perception scheme after eliminating radar sensors may be one of the reasons for this problem.
Judging from the information released on the extranet, although a car owner previously owned the 2017 Tesla Model X, although it also had a wrong brake, it was not as frequent and obvious as the 2021 Tesla Model Y. In a typical case, while driving normally, a plastic bag appears a few feet ahead, and then the vehicle begins emergency braking.
Above, a 2017 Tesla product in 2021, the 2017 Model X is still using the fusion perception solution, and the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 models manufactured in North America in May 2021 use a pure visual perception solution. According to statistics, in June 2021, complaints about Tesla's wrong brakes began to increase, reaching 51 complaints in November; and in October last year, Tesla updated the software version of FSD with an OTA recall, and the number of false brake complaints increased after the recall.
At present, the root cause of the increase in false brake complaints points to Tesla's visual perception scheme, because of the lack of cross-verification of multiple sensors, it is difficult to determine the road conditions by relying on only one type of sensor. And after the OTA recall updates the FSD, the number of complaints is even higher, and Tesla can only continue to optimize the algorithm or OTA recall (and roll back to the version before the FSD update), or use the pre-fusion perception scheme to add lidar or imaging millimeter wave radar in the forward direction.
Analyzing it, optimizing the algorithm or rolling back the FSD version is Tesla's best solution for this incident in the short term. The FSD version of the rollback Tesla did once, in the FSD version 10.3 version just pushed the test due to too many problems Tesla decided to roll back the FSD 10.3 version to the 10.2 version.
However, Tesla did not choose to continue to roll back the wrong brake situation, but chose the version update of the FSD, and then launched the FSD 10.4 version in November last year, and the FSD 10.7 version was launched at the end of December.
There are two items worth noting in the FSD 10.7 changelog, including:
Reduced false deceleration of crossed objects by improving the velocity estimation of objects at the end of visibility;
Cross-validate the lane allocation of objects by adding geometry checks, reducing false deceleration.
With the update of FSD version 10.7, the data on false brake complaints in December last year and January this year were 32 and 24 respectively, compared with 51 complaints in November last year, but this situation still exists. Although Tesla's miscalculation has always existed, this has not affected Tesla's stock price at all, and the number of complaints increased to 107 in 3 months, while Tesla's stock price remained above $900, and after the release of FSD version 10.7 on December 20 last year, Tesla's stock price returned to a high of $1,000.
summary
At the beginning of 2022, Tesla faced the largest recall in the company's history, although the number has exceeded 810,000 vehicles, but the impact is not large, through the OTA recall can quickly solve the problem, for Tesla has been familiar with the road has done many similar things. As long as it is not a hardware-related recall, using an OTA to solve a large-scale recall will not have a substantial (cost, stock price) impact on Tesla.
Regarding the case of false braking, only a few people will care, although the FSD function has been opened in the US market for many years, but the penetration rate has only reached 16.7% last year, so the impact of FSD defects for Tesla, which has reached a new high in revenue, gross margin and net profit in 2021, the impact is there, but compared to the annual revenue performance, it is very small.