Zhitong Finance APP learned that on January 31, 2022, the latest issue of the "China Automobile Dealers Inventory Alert Index Survey" VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in January 2022 was 58.3%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year and up 2.2 percentage points month-on-month, and the inventory warning index was above the boom-bust line.
The overall market was stable in January 2022. Affected by the scattered epidemic, various localities have advocated the local New Year, and the reduction of the number of people returning to their hometowns has slightly reduced the demand for car purchases. Some places have introduced policies to encourage automobile consumption, stimulate some automobile consumption, and stimulate certain sales.
At the same time, the supply of automobiles tends to stabilize, and the inventory level of dealers has rebounded, but it has not yet returned to normal levels. The mismatch between supply and demand caused by low inventories still needs some time to adjust. Coupled with the strict prevention and control of the epidemic, the number of consumers entering the store to buy cars has decreased, but the orders have been concentrated in the past few years, various preferential policies have been narrowed, the terminal price has not been significantly loosened, and the profitability of dealers is good.
Considering that some dealers continue to write off before the Spring Festival, and the actual sales volume converted from the reserved orders last month in January, it is expected that the sales of full-caliber passenger cars in January 2022 will be the same as in December last year, about 2.3 million units.
From the perspective of sub-indexes: the inventory, market demand and average daily sales index in January fell sharply, mainly due to the dual impact of the epidemic and the Spring Festival, and the overall demand and sales trend of the automobile market were weak. The employee index and the business status index increased slightly from the previous month.
From the perspective of regional indexes: the national total index in January was 58.3%, the northern index was 60.2%, the eastern index was 59.5%, the western index was 59.3%, and the southern index was 56.9%. Recently, the scattered epidemic has been repeated, consumers have been blocked from entering the store to buy cars, and the regional index has risen slightly.
From the perspective of sub-brand type index: the index of imported & luxury brands, mainstream joint venture brands and independent brands rose slightly in January.
Judgment on the market next month: February, as the traditional sales off-season, is also a vacuum period after the Spring Festival, affected by the recurrence of the epidemic, and short-term market support is insufficient. Coupled with the fact that the chip problem may continue to be resolved until the second half of this year, it is expected that the sales of full-caliber passenger cars will be about 1.4 million units in February, down about 40% month-on-month.
The China Automobile Dealers Association suggested that the uncertainty of the automobile market will increase in the future, and dealers should rationally estimate the actual market demand according to the actual situation, reasonably control the inventory level, and do not relax the epidemic protection.