Panorama of the intelligent networked vehicle industry
(Reprinted by the Institute of Intelligent Manufacturing Leading Talents)
Major listed companies in the industry: Thundersoft (300496), Desay SV (002920), Jingwei Hengrun (688326), Yutong Optics (300790), Dahua (002236), etc
First, industry overview: the panorama of the intelligent networked vehicle industry chain and the distribution of the value chain
-- Overview of the definition of the intelligent networked vehicle industry
Intelligent networked vehicles refer to vehicles that use on-board sensors, controllers, actuators, communication devices, etc., to achieve environmental perception, intelligent decision-making, and/or automatic control, collaborative control, information interaction and other functions. In the early days, intelligent networked vehicles focused on "smart cars", emphasizing the intelligence of single vehicles. In the future, it will gradually develop towards the path of integration of intelligence and networking, and achieve a real intelligent networked vehicle.
——Panorama of the intelligent networked vehicle industry chain: the industrial structure is highly specialized and the division of labor is refined
The industrial chain of intelligent networked vehicles is an upgrade and extension of the traditional automotive industry chain, including upstream industry support (perception, decision-making, execution, communication system software and hardware), midstream vehicle manufacturing and solutions, and downstream applications. The upstream of the intelligent vehicle industry chain is mainly divided into: the perception plate containing sensors, high-precision maps and positioning; decision-making systems including algorithms, chips, and operating systems; the communication sector including cloud platform and electronic and electrical architecture; It includes an executive control plate with a drive-by-wire chassis and an integrated control system. The midstream is mainly engaged in intelligent cockpits, autonomous driving solutions, and vehicle manufacturing. Downstream are dealers of smart cars and various service providers.
-- Distribution of the value chain of the intelligent networked vehicle industry: the profitability of the upstream perception decision-making level is high
The core value of the intelligent networked vehicle industry chain has shifted from vehicle manufacturing to both ends of the industrial chain, and the core competitiveness has been tilted towards core software and hardware providers and operation service providers. Compared with traditional vehicles, the value chain of intelligent networked vehicles will show the characteristics of total volume increase and back-end extension. The value chain of traditional vehicles presents a "smile curve" shape, while intelligent networked vehicles have further added software integration such as systems, networking, and applications on the basis of the original design of hardware links such as chassis, frames, and components, so the added value of front-end links is expected to be further improved, which will drive the rise of a number of core software and hardware providers with high value-added and high-tech barriers. In the back-end market, as a new intelligent terminal, the intelligent networked vehicle fully excavates and uses the value of big data such as road driving data and human-vehicle interaction data, which is analogous to the era of smart phones, and new applications and new business models are expected to appear, bringing broad back-end value to the industrial chain.
Reflected in the gross profit level, the gross profit level of the upstream link of the intelligent networked automobile industry is significantly higher than that of the middle and downstream links. Among them, the gross profit margin of upstream core components such as battery management system, lidar, millimeter-wave radar, high-precision map, high-precision positioning, chips, and communication gateways is as high as 45%.
Note: The above gross profit margin data is filled in with the average gross profit margin of representative listed companies in the industry in 2023.
Second, industrial policy: interpretation of the policy environment of the intelligent networked vehicle industry
-- Global ICV Industry Policy: Europe and the United States and other countries are leading the development of ICVs
At present, the world's major developed countries and regions, represented by the United States, the European Union, Japan, etc., regard intelligent networked vehicles as an important direction for the development of the automobile industry, and have accelerated the industrial layout, formulated development strategies, and accelerated the industrialization process through comprehensive measures such as policy support, technology research and development, standards and regulations, and demonstration operation. Compared with the policy history of developed countries such as China and Europe and the United States, the United States elevated the development of intelligent networked vehicles to a national strategy in 2010, and has a complete policy system to lead global development. However, China is a late entrant in the field of intelligent networked vehicles, focusing on industry guidance and testing demonstration management policies.
-- Summary of key policies for China's intelligent networked vehicle industry: policy promotion and regulation go hand in hand
In recent years, the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Transport and other departments have successively issued policies to standardize, guide and plan the development of the intelligent networked vehicle industry, involving the construction and planning of the standard system of intelligent networked vehicles, the qualification specifications of geographic information surveying and mapping, and the key technologies to support intelligent networked vehicles.
-- Key planning of China's intelligent networked vehicle industry: the construction of the industrial standard system has a clear goal
According to the development goals proposed in the Guidelines for the Construction of the National Internet of Vehicles Industry Standard System (Intelligent Connected Vehicles) (2023 Edition), by 2025, more than 100 standards related to intelligent networked vehicles will be formulated and revised, covering standards such as combined driving assistance, key systems for autonomous driving, basic functions and operating systems for networking, high-performance computing chips and data applications; By 2030, more than 140 standards related to intelligent networked vehicles will be formulated and revised, and a mechanism for evaluating the implementation effect and dynamic improvement will be established.
Third, industrial development
——The development stage of the intelligent networked automobile industry: the technological changes of the times have promoted the development of the intelligent networked automobile industry
In the 20th century, the third industrial revolution brought technological innovation such as electronic information technology, and the automobile industry gradually transformed to "lightweight, electrified and intelligent". In the 21st century, intelligence will be integrated into the physical system, and the intelligent revolution with artificial intelligence and other technologies as the core will lead the future, promote the transformation of the information age to the intelligent era, and intelligent networked vehicles will become the future trend.
-- The development of supply and demand in the intelligent networked vehicle industry: Shipments have grown steadily, and the penetration rate has increased rapidly
In terms of ICV shipments, according to IDC data, with the gradual improvement of consumers' acceptance of intelligent vehicles, China's ICV shipments will increase from 13.7 million units in 2021 to 24.9 million units in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 16.1%, with broad development prospects.
In terms of market penetration, according to CAICV data, in 2021, the penetration rate of L2 vehicles in China's passenger car market was 23.5%. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that in 2022, the sales of new intelligent networked passenger cars equipped with assisted autonomous driving systems in mainland China will be about 7 million, and the market penetration rate will be 34.9%; The market penetration rate further increased in the first half of 2023 to 42.4%.
-- Deployment of test and demonstration in the intelligent networked vehicle industry: The scale of open road construction and test demonstration continues to expand
The open test road is the premise of the open road test, which can be equipped with the corresponding system platform to provide the site, communication signal, road condition information, traffic light information, real-time event information, traffic data information, climate information, etc. for the open road test. According to CAICV data, as of August 2022, about 30 provinces and cities across the country have issued more than 1,000 license plates for road testing and demonstration application of intelligent networked vehicles, with more than 6,000 kilometers of open roads and more than 20 million kilometers of test mileage. According to Guo Shougang, deputy director of the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the first half of 2023, more than 15,000 kilometers of test roads have been opened across the country, with a total mileage of more than 70 million kilometers of road tests and more than 2,800 test licenses.
Fifth, the layout of the enterprise
-- The entry process and product layout of competitors in the intelligent networked vehicle industry chain
At present, the main competitors in the domestic intelligent networked automobile industry include technology-based enterprises, traditional OEMs, and new car-making forces. From the perspective of the entry process of enterprises, most autonomous driving solution providers were registered between 2012 and 2015, including "Wei Xiaoli", SenseTime, Zongmu Technology, Yuanfeng Technology, etc.
Note: The horizontal axis represents the year of establishment of the enterprise; The vertical axis represents the month of establishment of the enterprise; The size of the bubble represents the registered capital of the enterprise.
From the perspective of the layout of each link of the enterprise intelligent networked vehicle industry chain, the upstream perception system of mainland intelligent networked vehicle enterprises is mainly deployed in the upstream camera, lidar and other links, and the representative enterprises include Yutong Optics, Hesai Technology, Sunny Optics, etc.; The decision-making system mainly lays out automotive-grade chips and cloud computing platforms, represented by Horizon, Black Sesame, Hotwon Technology, and Dongtu Technology; Execution control system manufacturers (Likr Technology, Hankaisi, Asia-Pacific Electromechanical, Deke Intelligent Control, etc.) mainly layout wire-controlled chassis; The layout of network empowerment focuses on the research and development of C-V2X vehicle-road collaboration technology; OEMs and solution providers involve traditional OEMs, technology companies, new forces and other types of enterprises, and most of them tend to have a full-stack layout.
——Layout characteristics of intelligent networked vehicle enterprises: Baidu, Huawei and other technology companies are leading the way in transformation
From the perspective of the class layout of autonomous driving technology of intelligent networked vehicle companies, traditional OEMs such as BYD and Great Wall have adopted a gradual improvement path from L1 to L5, new car-making forces such as "Wei Xiaoli" are aiming at L3 step-by-step development, and technology companies such as Baidu and Huawei are pointing to transformative leadership.
——Competitive landscape of intelligent networked vehicle enterprises: Desay SV ranks first among the top 100 suppliers in the industrial chain
According to the "2022-2023 Top 100 Suppliers in China's Intelligent Vehicle Industry Chain" released by GGII, 100 companies, including Desay SV, JOYNEXT, ECARX, Neusoft Group, Huayang Group, and Baidu Apollo, have performed well in terms of revenue, market share, and mass production capacity in various segments of the intelligent networked vehicle industry chain.
Sixth, regional layout
-- Regional distribution of China's intelligent networked vehicle enterprises: mainly distributed in the eastern coastal and Yangtze River Delta regions
According to the query data of key enterprises in the intelligent networked automobile industry chain developed by the Prospective Industry Research Institute's self-developed big data system, as of January 10, 2024, China's intelligent networked vehicle representative enterprises are mainly distributed in East China, South China, North China and other places, among which Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai have the largest number of representative enterprises in the intelligent networked vehicle industry chain.
-- China's ICV City Competitive Echelon: First-tier cities are in the first echelon of urban ICV competitiveness
The development of intelligent networked vehicles is a historic opportunity for local governments to cultivate new kinetic energy, transform and upgrade industries, and improve urban governance capabilities. Cities are the best carriers and key "application supports" for the development of China's intelligent networked vehicles. According to the comprehensive evaluation results of the development of China's urban intelligent networked vehicle industry jointly released by the National Intelligent Connected Vehicle Innovation Center, the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, and the China Intelligent Connected Vehicle Industry Innovation Alliance, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Changsha, Chongqing and other first-tier and new first-tier cities are in the first echelon of urban intelligent networked vehicle competitiveness, and Suzhou, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Wuxi, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Nanjing, Zibo, Hainan and other provincial capitals and key cities in the eastern region are in the second echelon of competitiveness, Chengdu and Jinan, Qingdao, Xi'an, Changchun, Wuhu and other companies are in the third echelon of competitiveness. In addition, Cangzhou, Baoding, Changzhou, Dalian, Xiamen and other cities have a large gap in industrial competitiveness and innovation competitiveness, but they have certain differentiated advantages in terms of policy, testing and demonstration.
-- Distribution of China's National Intelligent Connected Vehicle Test Demonstration Zones: East China and Central and South China have the largest number
As of June 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of Communications have supported the construction of 17 national-level intelligent networked vehicle test demonstration zones, mainly in East China, Central South China, and Southwest China, with 5, 5, and 3 respectively. And approved the construction of Wuxi, Jiangsu, Xiqing, Tianjin, Changsha, Hunan, Liangjiang, Chongqing, Xiangyang, Hubei, Deqing, Zhejiang, Liuzhou, Guangxi seven national Internet of Vehicles pilot area.
Seventh, industrial technology
——Technological development stage: It is still in the early stage of autonomous driving development
According to the classification of autonomous driving level in the "Classification of Automobile Driving Automation" (GB/T 40429-2021), the current development of intelligent networked vehicles in China is still in the early stage of development, L2 assisted driving has the ability of large-scale mass production, and more and more new models are equipped with assisted driving. The L3 and L4 autonomous driving systems are currently in the R&D and small-scale testing stage. Several domestic car companies have driven high-end assisted driving into urban open roads, and have long begun to prepare for the mass production of high-end intelligent driving in all scenarios.
- Contextual Perception Technology: The lowest-cost solution with the same function is the future of perception
Tesla is a staunch supporter of visual perception solutions, emphasizing "simplifying the complex", and Tesla, which currently relies on visual solutions, is still the best company to mass-produce assisted driving. The multi-sensor fusion solution has been favored by many domestic manufacturers, and they have laid out the fields of lidar and high-precision maps through development or investment. Whether it is a multi-sensor integrated perception solution containing lidar or a visual perception solution, both of them are still in the preliminary stage of research and development, and there are difficulties that need to be overcome, and finally the solution that can provide the same functional products at the cheapest price will become the future of perception.
- Automotive-grade chips: The domestic production rate of automotive-grade chips is insufficient, and chip development is facing multiple challenges
At present, the autonomous driving computing chip technology is led by NVIDIA, and the autonomy of the mainland's automotive high-computing power chips is very low. NVIDIA's latest autonomous driving chip, Thor, has a computing power of 2000TOPS for a single chip, and many domestic self-developed manufacturers have also accelerated research and development. However, the infinite expansion of computing power is not the future trend, there is a physical upper limit of chip computing power, and the application of large computing power chips is inseparable from the support of the on-board computing platform, the complexity of the on-board computing platform is increasing several times, and chip development will also face multiple challenges such as power consumption, heat dissipation, electromagnetism, and quality.
Eighth, trends and prospects
——Development trend: tackle the technical bottlenecks in each link of "bicycle intelligence + network empowerment".
It is the key to promote the development of the intelligent networked vehicle industry to grasp the future development direction and trend of industries such as improving efficiency, reducing risks, and green and low-carbon, and tackling the technical bottlenecks in each link of "bicycle intelligence + network empowerment".
——Development prospects: The industrial scale may exceed two trillion yuan in 2029
The development of the global intelligent networked new energy vehicle industry related to new energy, big data, electronic information and other resources are accelerating to the domestic agglomeration, the mainland intelligent networked new energy vehicles are gradually moving towards a new stage of rapid development, the market penetration rate continues to rise rapidly, is expected to reach more than 40% by 2025; By 2030, intelligent networked new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of the market. Therefore, the prospect remains optimistic about the development of intelligent networked vehicles, and is expected to have a large growth rate in recent years, and it is initially predicted that by 2029, the scale of China's intelligent networked vehicle industry may exceed 2 trillion yuan.
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on the Development Model and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Intelligent Connected Vehicle (ICV) Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.